Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Politics and Geopolitics / Great Arab Revolution / Articles
Events in the Arab world – beginning of the world revolution?
Material posted: Publication date: 17-02-2011

Despite tensions in Egypt, North Africa and the Middle East are continuing violent demonstrations and riots, covering all new countries. In particular, turbulent now in Algeria, Libya, Bahrain , Iran and other States. On the socio-political background of these events and their possible future development, says an independent expert Yuri Misurkin.

The beginning of a new decade of the XXI century was marked by major upheavals to the countries of the Maghreb and the Middle East. On the streets of Arab cities leave dozens, and sometimes hundreds of thousands of demonstrators, pushing slogans for the restoration of the shattered social justice.

The "Jasmine" revolution in Tunisia, student performances in the Sudan, mass protests in Yemen and Algeria and, finally, the vast demonstrations in Egypt – all this happens at the same time adjacent to each other territories. This development seems all the more strange that the revolutionary sentiment swept even Jordan, a country where the government is of the Hashemite dynasty are direct descendants of the prophet Muhammad.

But what could cause such a powerful surge of social activity in this seemingly not very revolutionary region? What forces came into play, forcing hundreds of thousands of people to declare itself as a proper subject of state authority and begin to assert their rights? Let's try to answer these questions, otrefleksirovat recent developments at several levels of analysis, starting with a simple economy.

From the point of view of economic well-being of all States, which swept the wave of public discontent, have very low rates. But still it should be emphasized that in Egypt and Tunisia level of income is 3-4 times higher, and the unemployment rate is several times lower than in Yemen and Sudan. There is a paradox in more economically successful countries are witnessing the peak of social tension, and poor in only a minor performance dissatisfied.

No doubt also that the working body of revolution at all times acted younger generation. Indeed, young people make up a significant portion of the population in all the States of the Maghreb and the Middle East, but, again, in Yemen and Sudan, the proportion of young in 1,5-2 times exceeds a similar indicator in Egypt and Tunisia.

But if the roots of the unrest are not in the economic plane, where? In answering this question you should remember the Testament of Lenin that a concentrated form of Economics is politics. Moreover, this formula is relevant to the Middle East, which since the days of Lawrence of Arabia in the field of international relations has become synonymous with Big Game.

Try to understand the game that is unfolding before our eyes and has already led to the collapse of two moderate Muslim governments. It will take a little excursion into history.

With the advent in 1948 on the map of the Middle East of the Israeli state, the geostrategic balance in the region has changed dramatically. All attempts of the Arabs to halt the growth of influence of tel Aviv was a failure, despite the existing Muslim States of the Soviet Union.

And all this time Israel had strong support from Western Europe and the United States interested in the presence of a loyal ally in the confrontation with the Soviets. The allies supplied Israel with weapons and military equipment, adopted the amendment of Jackson-Vanik, persuaded Egyptian President Anwar Sadat to go to the signing of the camp David accords, and generally took care of Israel as he could. And while Israel has had appropriate support, he was in relative safety, without risking to be erased from the face of the earth hundreds of millions of Muslims, for whom Jerusalem is no less sacred than to the Jews.

But with the arrival in the White house the Obama administration to the Jewish state has become increasingly undergo testing. First U.S. President delivered his famous speech in Cairo, which supports the idea of an independent Palestine, then Israel with the devastating loses the campaign around the Turkish "freedom Flotilla". And today all these problems are compounded by the increasing radicalization of regimes in neighboring Arab States, with the undisguised support of the leading Western politicians.

What happened at the beginning of the twenty-first century, that seemingly unshakable ally of the West suddenly suddenly lost the support of his patron? The answer to this question can be only one.

China should overtake the US in total power by 2030, America becomes increasingly a problem. And after the leadership of the CPC Central Committee refused the offer of Zbigniew Brzezinski's concept of division of responsibility within the G2, the United States, not accustomed to such treatment, could not help but start looking for alternative ways to control the Yellow Dragon.

But China is a enemy who cannot be overcome neither the manpower nor the aircraft carrier groups, as was done with Iraq or Yugoslavia. But how can the representatives of Anglo-Saxon strategic culture to stop the difficulty to achieve something with my own hands?

Because in this case there will always be another ally, which can be used in the development of "common strategic interests". Such an ally in the confrontation with China may be only the world of Islam, very different, but no less passionate. The first victim that will be sacrificed on the altar of friendship between the U.S. and the Islamic world, apparently, and will be Israel.

The Israeli leadership, in anticipation of such a scenario and trying to support their only ally in the middle East -- even at such unprecedented measures as a permit Egyptian troops in demilitarized Sinai Peninsula to guard the presidential residence in Sharm El-Sheikh. But all were in vain – the Mubarak regime fell, opening many radical movements access to power.

Highlighting the contours of the Great Game, it can be concluded that besides purely economic reasons, another source of unrest in the region and pragmatic interests of the United States in confronting the new threat in China.

But cribbing responsible for the overthrow of dictatorial regimes only to the machinations of experts "Rand Corporation" and professors at the Santa Fe Institute would be too rough explanation of the real complexity of the global processes. After all, to explain such intrinsically complex phenomenon, as social revolution only the work of operational employees of the CIA and RUMO is the same thing as trying to describe the thermodynamic equation, using categorical school arithmetic. Definitely a game of intelligence services is underway and will continue always. But intelligence can only adapt to the mainstream social movements, while the source itself lies in the depths of the historical process.

The main lesson that Russia and the world can be learned from the events in the Arab world, is that on the stage of history again appears the subject, which is not recalled for decades after the period of revolutions and the collapse of the Soviet Union. The name of this subject – the People. Thanks to modern means of communication and social networks like Twitter and Facebook have the ability to self-organization of the masses by means of mutual exchange of information. An example of this self-organization and serve as the recent events in Tahrir square when millions of people sesavas in the network agreed on the place and time of joint statements.

Empirical evidence of the impact of the prevalence of the Internet on the intensity of movements of social protest is statistics on Internet users in the Arab countries. In Yemen and Sudan, where the prevalence of the Internet does not exceed 10 %, the explosion of public discontent can be prevented, despite the extremely unfavorable situation in the economy. At the same time in a relatively prosperous Egypt and Tunisia, where the share of Internet users is 25 % and 33 %, respectively, popular demonstrations have led to the overthrow of existing governments.

This seemingly insignificant feature of the information age is the battering RAM, punching all the postmodernist concepts of besubjected masses, on which stood domestic and foreign policies of all governments. The masses again, as during the French or Russian revolutions, have declared themselves as full subject of history, having broken, thus, the conclusions of postmodernists from sociology.

This means that the beginning of the III Millennium will be held under the slogan "again And continues the fight!" and not under the label of "end of history", as one might have liked many members of the international establishment who are satisfied with the existing order of things.

 

Yuri Mazurkin


Source: http://www.tpp-inform.ru/global/969.html

Tags: war , crisis , Libya , Africa


RELATED MATERIALS: Politics and Geopolitics