Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Politics and Geopolitics / Great Arab Revolution / Articles
Events in Libya and the security problems of Israel
Material posted: Publication date: 05-04-2011

Tripoli, Benghazi, Gaddafi – the rebels and the provisional government: all that pine, which hides the forest. Forest of the true meaning of what is happening. The words of analysts and a few politicians that started the global repartition of the world, and essentially the third world war, drowned in the stream of operational messages from the North African coast and repetitive TV images. On them the motley crowd of scruffy looking Arabs furiously firing from automatic weapons and anti-aircraft installations in the blue sky of the desert or somehow elated at the same gate of the city of green.

No clarity in what is happening and do not add many hours of noisy TV debates on our TV channels with interactive audience voting on the topic: is it possible to stop the bloodshed by bloodshed and washed if Russia hands for the benefit of themselves, abstained in the vote on resolution 1973, or did the immoral and wasteful? Such disputes, despite the emotions of the parties, look pre-rendered and idle. However, this topic is extremely painful, and despite the concern of politicians and ordinary people in neighboring Libya, the state of Israel. Shortly after the start of the operation the coalition forces said a lot of concerns with the characteristic intonation of question, "the Intervention of the armed forces of Western countries could harm the legitimacy of the civil movement in Libya and in other Arab countries. And why the bombing of Tripoli cause approval, and the bombing of Gaza the wrath of the world community"? It quotes from the publications of the leading Israeli newspaper "Haaretz" for the last of March this year.

The statement and doubt the most soft and politically correct of all that sound today in the Jewish state about what is happening in neighbouring countries. It is therefore hardly surprising that the leading organ of Israel on March 28 published an article under the rather paradoxical title: "life-Saving Iron dome threatens Israel two troubles". The fact that the first set of the newest missile defense system "Iron dome" is deployed on a pilot basis in the Western Negev. This is due to the escalation of violence on the border with the Gaza Strip. Despite the effectiveness of the system of the terrorist group, the author concludes that in these circumstances will reinforce mortar attack Masalov and the kibbutzim that are in the vicinity. This is the first negative factor, and the second is that Iron dome cannot cover other problematic areas of the country. As for the leader of the largest state-an ally of the Israeli press now without any reverence notes that Obama is not the first leader who started the war, being awarded the Nobel peace prize. Before him were, and begin, Peres, and Arafat. And Obama is not licemerie other politicians, he's just like everyone else.

Meanwhile for concern on the part of Israelis have every reason today. This, in particular, draws the attention of the resource "Slate.fr" in the publication "the Sudden rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel" (29.03.11). The main concern of Israel, says the article, is an extension of disturbances and riots to its borders. The revolution may well become uncontrollable if the conflict will interfere with new strength. The same Kurds living in the border area of Syria, Turkey and Iraq. Syrian opposition appeals to him. The stirring up of the Kurds, in turn, can become a target for Iran the pretext to interfere and foment the flames of civil war in Lebanon. Syria's President has appealed for help to Iran, which had sent armed troops to suppress the uprising in his country.

The Israeli authorities, writes the French edition, in turn, refuse to speak disapprovingly of the Arab revolutions. They fear that their words may be used by the enemy. Paradoxically, these fears of the Israeli political class is so strong that he prefers the "strong" regimes, which for decades and even used the hatred of their people towards Israel, but still guaranteed some kind of stability. Their decline will only worsen and make the situation unpredictable.

Not less concerned about Israel and in Turkey, where not forgotten the lessons of history. What? Yes the one that happened 95 years ago. "We are witnessing a historic unravelling the map of the Middle East", - said the Turkish "Hurriyet". Three intellectual of completely different cultural traditions, last week, acting separately, came to the same opinion. The eminent academician from the London school of Economics Robert Lowe's in an interview with CNN, Alug Benn, author of articles in well-known Israeli newspaper "Haaretz", in its submission, and Obeid Nachas from the London Institute of Levant – all of them completely independently from each other stated that the current wave of popular uprisings that might change the border, almost a hundred years after they were installed the so-called agreement of Sykes-Picot.

Then, in may 1916, Georges Picot, a French diplomat and his British counterpart mark Sykes were authorized by their governments to discuss an agreement on the division of the Ottoman Empire between the forces of the allies during the First world war. Now, almost a hundred years later, the middle East is burning again, and rather it is symptomatic that Britain and France were the ones to take the lead in aviabombardirovka Libya. Of course, solely because of their love for the Bedouins of North Africa, quips the author. Apparently, the same old game once again enters the scene.

So what can lead the "selfless support" the Western world led by the United States "young democracies" of the Middle East? The most astute observers see the hidden meaning of the game the United States together with its European partners, above all in the fact that in the near future will change not only the political map of the region, but also the balance of power and elites in these countries. And then, perhaps, Israel will cease to be the one and only open ally of America. New middle Eastern democracy, for all its anti-Zionism will also benefit from the support of the United States. While conflict and showdowns with Israel they will take on the role of a wise referee. It is easy to assume that with this turn of events the Jewish state de facto, it will become quasi-ghettos. And all appeals to the international community will be futile as the dispute will be between the seemingly equal democratic subjects.

While America openly Israel is not losing. It is still an Outpost against Syria and Iran. By the way, from open collision with tel Aviv, dodges successfully in recent years. But it is unlikely this tactic will be successful forever. The US will find another way to bring the situation in the region to the crisis. The issue with Syria and Iran to resolve the still have. And not only because these countries are hostile to Israel and the U.S., and because they are important elements that are intended to close an arc of instability across the Islamic world, including the Caucasus and Central Asia. And will be rested this arc in the unswerving border of China. This strategy is made clear in the end of the last century infamous for the CG. Brzezinski. Sometimes they say that his views are outdated, came the era of the restart, declared by Barack Obama. But on 2 April, replying to the questions of the correspondent of the French "Le Monde", can it be called the relations between China and the U.S. one of the fundamental elements of the 21st century, Brzezinski gave an absolutely complete answer: "Yes! At the moment there is no reason to doubt that China will continue to increase its power, despite a number of internal problems. Yes and there is now an alternative to China in the international arena? India is not. Japan is too old. Europe too busy with its own Affairs...".

So, the fight for "the cause of democracy and freedom" against the growing "totalitarian" China, America will continue. The alternatives, according to Brzezinski, no. And on the altar of victory can put the life of both, Arabs and Jews, between Muslims and Jews. Nothing personal, just, as they say, business.

 

Alexander Gorbatov

Tags: war , Libya , Africa


RELATED MATERIALS: Politics and Geopolitics
Возрастное ограничение