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Material posted: Publication date: 14-02-2011

The revolution: Mubarak is gone, people dancing on Tahrir square. As danced on the square of the Bastille on 14 July 1789, when the French did not know that the destruction of the Bastille is the first stage of the French revolution, followed by the chaos of the Jacobin terror, the execution of the Royal family, the Vendee and the long period of the Napoleonic wars, followed by the restoration of the Bourbons. Some of these history lessons is considered.

The power is officially handed over to the Supreme Council of the military command of the armed forces of Egypt. Its Chairman, defense Minister, field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi has actually become interim head of state. The Supreme Council abolished the Constitution and dissolved both houses of Parliament – people's Assembly and the consultative Council. The power was entirely in the hands of the military. It is expected that the transitional period will last until the election of a new President and Parliament, which is unlikely to be presented to the interests of those who are called the "driving force of the revolutions of modern times". The "new and angry", all these well educated young people, which provided the first mass rallies via Twitter and Facebook, and then became the backbone of a three-week vigil in Cairo's city centre, no political party.

This is also a classic of the genre: after the tyrant is overthrown, the extras it is possible to dissolve and to engage in the redistribution of power. With all the abundance of legal, semi-legal and clandestine parties and movements in Egypt, in the unanimous opinion of experts, there are only two forces capable of keeping afloat in the situation slipping back into economic crisis in the country. This is the army and the "Muslim brotherhood". Is limited and the list of contenders for the presidency. Today it is topped by the chief of the General staff Sami Enan, former Chairman of the IAEA Mohammed al-Baradei and Chairman of the League of Arab States, AMR Moussa. There is still the interim head of Egypt Mohamed Tantawi, but is considered an interim figure. The head of Egyptian intelligence, Vice President Omar Suleiman, who was considered as a possible successor within the scenario of a legitimate transfer of power after Mubarak was out of the game.

The youngest of these politicians, Themselves Enano, 63 years old, but he, as well as Tanabe, compromised in the eyes of the Egyptian "street" is close to Mubarak and connections with the United States. If you believe the media, Anna candidacy already endorsed by Obama, and it will promote Washington as President. ElBaradei, though advocates for the legalization of "Muslim Brothers" and their inclusion in the political process, too, is considered a puppet of the West. It supports a certain part of Egyptian society, including young people. The greatest sympathy "the street" is AMR Moussa – this was well illustrated when, on 4 February in the midst of one of the largest rallies, he appeared in Tahrir square. In the 90's Moussa served as foreign Minister, and regularly criticized Israel's policy against Palestinians and US for approval of this policy. In 2001, after the scandal provoked sharp polemics with the head of the Israeli foreign Shloma Ben-AMI on American television, Moussa was seconded to the League of Arab States.

There are in Egypt, and the old legal opposition: al bourgeois Wafd, the left Progressive party and two parties of the first followers of President Nasser – nucerity willing to cooperate with the "Muslim brotherhood", and Arabists-nucerity opposed to the admission policy of any organization of the Islamists. The liberal trend represented established in 2004, the party "al-the Reptile". Its leader, lawyer Ayman Nour was the main rival of Hosni Mubarak in the 2005 presidential election. Getting 8%, he took second place, tried to challenge the election results and ended up in jail on charges of falsification of registration documents of his party. Biography provided Nuru sympathy of the West. Immediately after the start of protests CNN the entire evening showed his wife Gamela Ismail, who after her husband's arrest became the de facto leader of the party "al-the Reptile". In political terms, the figure Ayman Nur is reminiscent of Victor Yushchenko and Michael Saakashvili, with the difference that the main liberal Egypt not tainted by participation in power and paid for the confrontation with the regime four years in prison.

Special position in the political arena of Egypt is a "Muslim brotherhood". Driven underground, they nevertheless promoted their candidates to the Parliament, working with liberal and labor Party. To adequately assess their program and the degree of their popularity is quite difficult. According to Mohamed El Beltagy, representing the "Muslim brotherhood" in the last Parliament, his organization seeks to "historical reconciliation with the opposition" for the sake of promoting political and constitutional reforms. The fraternity members participated in street performances, but tried to keep a low profile, that did not stop them to build rapport with almost all opposition parties and movements. According to experts, as the President of the "Muslim Brothers" equally satisfied with the figures al-Baradei and Moussa, but at parliamentary elections they are planning to go alone, and judging by the statements of one of the leaders of this organization, Ramada al-Baumi, expect to gain no less than one third of the votes.

All this mass of political parties and movements is Brownian motion, teaming up and feuding for a million specific questions, the most painful of which is the economic situation in the country. And this brings up some very interesting nuances. If "angry youth" wanted decent work, and the bulk of ordinary people came out to protest against poverty, the most advanced part of the business swung to a fundamental change in financial and economic policy. This segment of society is interested in scrapping the system under which the state turned into a joint stock company for the exploitation of national wealth, where profit is distributed between the Ministers and the financial oligarchy, and the costs fell on the state which, in the search for resources, ever more ruthlessly exploited by local entrepreneurs.

But seriously expect that all those forces – from the "new and angry" and business to ordinary people and the Islamists – will be able to make some changes, it is not necessary. The entire course of events and, especially, its ending phase indicates that Directors view called "revolution in Egypt" is located in Washington. Indirect confirmation of this is the networked nature of the nucleus of the protest of associations. According to the head of the youth "movement of April 6" Maher, his organization is led by ElBaradei's coalition "national Association for climate change", members of which also are the Movement for change in Egypt "Kefaya", whose name evokes associations with the Georgian "rose revolution", where according to the same scheme operated by the youth organization "Kmara". Both titles – "Kefaya" and "Kmara" is translated as "Enough!" and some American right authors write that both organizations are affiliated with the American Foundation for democracy, the instructors who taught those and other methods of non-violent resistance and other tricks of the street confrontation.

No one denies the existence of objective reasons for unrest in the Arab world. But those reasons are significantly linked to financial policy of the USA, which in the crisis cut the printing machine, saving its economy due to the economies of other countries. In particular, Egypt is the world's largest wheat importer, much of which is purchased from USA. From the summer to November of last year, wheat futures on the Chicago exchange jumped by 74%; in Egypt it backfired 30% growth in the prices of the products. Similarly, inflation has hit other States of the region, which caused food riots began in Algeria, Libya and other countries of the Maghreb. I.e., the Arab revolutions are a natural result of globalization and the desire of developed countries to shift the costs of dealing with the crisis in a weaker economy.

The main causes of popular discontent beyond the scope of competence of local leaders, cannot be withdrawn at the end of the local revolutions. Moreover, revolutionary and post-revolutionary chaos, riots, suspension of production, etc. only compound the problem. On Tunisia, which started the mass migration to Europe, the scope of which forced Italy to declare the South area of a humanitarian catastrophe. In Egypt, too, had problems with food – this time not only with prices but also with the inability to procure basic products. Against this background, USA and Europe welcome the victory of democracy and promise assistance to the new government. And then, as if on command, aggravated the situation in Algeria and Yemen.

Good answer to the question of why Americans instead of in difficult times to support its partners spend resources on their overthrow, no. As there is no hope that the result of overthrowing "tyrants" situation in the region will improve markedly.

Letting Mubarak is not the first episode of the new US policy towards its former allies. The scenarios are different, but essence one. The leader of Tunisia went into exile; following the resignation of Mubarak in Pakistan issued an arrest warrant for former President Musharraf. All these leaders were loyal to the U.S. and resisted the attack of the Islamists. Now frankly sanded them for some other project, not paying attention to the fact that it threatens the destruction of statehood and the onset of chaos in the vast territories from the Atlantic to the border with China.


Natalia Serova


Tags: USA , Libya , Africa

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