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The internal political situation in Egypt and its impact on the situation in the region
Material posted: Publication date: 23-07-2013

As a result many thousands of popular protests and steps taken by the military, June 30, 2013, Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi after a year of government was accused of betrayal of national interests, removed from power, and then arrested.

The overthrow of Morsi received wide international response, due to the role of Egypt in the geopolitical processes, the fact that we are talking about the biggest Arab country. In addition, the role played by the Islamic factor. Morsi represented the Islamist organization "Muslim brotherhood", whose activities in recent years, especially with the beginning of the "Arab spring" raises a lot of questions and speculation regarding the actual objectives of the organization. Sphere of influence "pseudo-Muslims"[1] was not confined to Egypt and covers Tunisia, Gaza, Turkey. They are open political and financial support of the West and several regional power centers, in particular, the United States and Qatar[2]. "Muslim brotherhood" are in the majority in the composition of the so-called "Syrian opposition" to solve the Syrian problem are not opposed to such extreme measures as the open foreign invasion of Syria.

What are the main geopolitical implications of this event? Let us discuss this a little more.

The end of the American project and Turkish influence. The article "the Strategic assessment. The hysteria of America" newspaper "al-Ahram" writes that the Egyptian people that the US tried to split and establish their control, became an obstacle to the realization of the project "greater middle East". The coming to power of the Muslim brotherhood was part of the project, as well as the transformation of the Sinai Peninsula into a terrorist base. Over the past year as a result of provocations on the Peninsula, the Egyptian army has lost 16 soldiers. The actions of the terrorists in Syria are pursuing the same goal, writes the edition. In Egypt the goal of the Muslim brotherhood through the aggravation of the situation to make a picture of the schism in Egyptian society so compelling as to justify interference in Egypt's internal Affairs by foreign States. This can lead Egypt to a civil war, if not already begun, concludes, "al-Ahram"[3]. The so-called "Arab spring", which the publication calls "chaos", is designed to solve the middle East problem of the geopolitical centers, enabling the latter to provide for its own security from terrorist attacks. Implementing the project "Arab spring" power centers relied on political Islam in the face of the Muslim brotherhood. Part of the project "greater middle East" is a project of the Islamic Caliphate, however, the revolution of June 30 has put under question the implementation of both, the article says "the end of the American project"[4].

The fall of the Muslim brotherhood in Egypt have set their ally, the Turkish Prime-Minister Erdogan to have to realize the loss of their own subjectivity, at least in the Syrian issue, and the need to develop adequate assessment of what is happening. The Syrian press providing details of a telephone conversation Erdogan with Saudi side, when the Turkish Prime Minister, unable to restrain himself, cried out: "President Assad – that is who actually benefited from the revolution in Egypt!"[5].

King Abdullah II of Jordan in an interview even accused Erdogan and former Egyptian President Mohammed Mursi in an attempt to usurp power in their countries for the sake of extending the rule of the Muslim brotherhood[6]. Abdullah announced the indictment of Erdogan is of particular importance after the overthrow of Mursi, who was the Prime Minister of Turkey continues to consider "the only legitimate President of Egypt"[7] and the monitoring of the Lebanese "as-Safir", keeps a complete silence on the events in Egypt that markedly contrasts with his rhetoric on the occasion of the election of Morsi as President of Egypt last year[8]. On the official website of the Egyptian Muslim brotherhood in the details presents a speech by Erdogan in which he said in Istanbul in support of ousted Mohammed Mursi[9].

The article "the fall of the "Muslim brotherhood" in Egypt: the tragic end of Turkey's role", the publication predicts the end of Turkish influence in the region due to the overthrow of Morsi and the deterioration of relations between Erdogan and Abdullah. One of the reasons for significant restrictions of regional weight and role of Turkey publication considers the possible termination of financing of the Turkish state from outside Qatar after the transfer of the throne to crown Prince Tamim[10]. In the article "Erdogan! Egypt will never be the Ottoman", columnist for "al-Ahram" expresses his surprise at the attempts of the Turkish Prime-Minister to interfere in Egypt's internal Affairs, citing the demand of the Turkish side to provide detailed information on the location and conditions of stay of those arrested since the overthrow of Morsi members of the Muslim brotherhood. Erdogan made incorrectly from the point of view of bilateral diplomatic relations steps in relation to the sovereign state the author as "stupid".[11]

The future of the "Muslim brothers". The result of the completion during the reign of the Muslim brotherhood by the Syrian press believes the return of Egypt to its Arab origins[12]. The reasons "why Morsi fell, and Assad has survived", change Qatar, rallies and protests in Turkey are closely associated with the Syrian issue. For the failure of the Muslim brotherhood in the Syrian issue before the geopolitical centers of power paid by Qatar and Morsi, who was ousted after the change of power in Qatar. Turn to Turkey and other Gulf monarchies, on which fell the blame for the spilled blood of the innocent Syrians, sums up the publication. As for the fate of the Mohammed Morsi, some publications openly discuss the possibility of the death sentence against the former Egyptian President. According to the results of the online survey, the majority voted for this variant[13].

What happened in Egypt, the Syrian opposition considers the error and calls the "military coup". Consisting mainly of "Muslim brothers", she was faced with an unsolvable dilemma – to Express solidarity with the stance of the Egyptian people, that is, to turn away from his companions, or to support the latter[14]. Before and after the overthrow of Mursi, many members of the organization of the Muslim brotherhood fled from the persecution of Yemen. However, their position in this country is much weaker than in Tunisia or Egypt, it is stated in the article "future Scenario "Muslim brothers" in Yemen". Despite this, Yemen is of great interest from the point of view of creation in its territory "an Islamic Emirate, unlike any Arab or Islamic country". Analyzing the events in Egypt, the author comes to a disappointing conclusion, what change in Egypt will be paying the Yemen[15].

The fall of the "Muslim brotherhood" in Egypt will inevitably lead to the collapse of the regime in Tunisia. This opinion has been expressed by many publications. The police chief of the UAE-even points for a certain period – a year and a half[16]. "Sunni axis", built around the Muslim brotherhood that a number of geopolitical centers of forces lined up in opposition to the "Shiite Crescent", showed threat to the continued existence of the unsteadiness. However, this does not mean that "Shiite-Sunni" antagonism, as a way of realization of geopolitical projects in the middle East, charged in the archive. After some rearrangements and attract new resources and actors, the project will again be returned to the geopolitical arena. That is removed from politics of the Muslim brotherhood, the United States intends to bring to power an alternative power - Salafis, writes the edition "Arabi-Press", referring to the recent meeting held between the us Ambassador and representatives of the Salafi Nour party in Egypt. The latter was recommended to continue to keep worrying and wait and see the political background in Egypt[17].

Due to these possible transformations will be a new axis, where the Central role belongs to Saudi Arabia. In the framework of this project the proposal of Bahrain on the formation of a Confederation with Jordan might materialize. The consequence of these processes can make the inevitable confrontation by Saudi Arabia and Qatar on the many arenas that will unfold on the background of the attempts of the Muslim brotherhood to take revenge and to regain the influence on regional projects.

 

Armine Hakobyan, an expert on the Middle East, orientalist-Arabist

 


 

[1]"Arabspring", July 07, 2013, July 15, 2013, <http://www.arabspring.us/news/author_single_article/Member/706>

[2]"Aljazeera", June 25, 2013, July 15, 2013, <http://www.aljazeera.net/coverage/pages/e97cc2db-714f-4408-ad5b-0c09d214836d>

[3]"Al-Ahram", July 09, 2013, July 15, 2013, <http://www.ahram.org.eg/News/875/11/220095/.aspx>

[4]"Al-Ahram", July 11, 2013, July 15, 2013, <http://www.ahram.org.eg/News/877/11/220464/ العمدة/نهايــــة-المشـــــروع-المريكـي.aspx>

[5]"Dampress", July 18, 2013, July 18, 2013, <http://www.dampress.net/index.php?page=show_det&select_page=48&id=29864>

[6]"Dampress", March 19, 2013, July 16, 2013, <http://www.dampress.net/?page=show_det&category_id=12&id=26319>

[7]"Al-Dar", July 14, 2013, July 15, 2013, <http://www.aldaronline.com/detail.cfm?id=44414&catId=26>

[8]"As-Safir", July 03, 2013, July 15, 2013, <http://www.assafir.com/Article.aspx?EditionId=2502&ChannelId=60325&ArticleId=310#.Ud48iG-Cn54>

[9]"Nafizat Ul-Masri", July 18, 2013, July 18, 2013, <http://www.egyptwindow.net/news_Details.aspx?Kind=4&News_ID=31090>

[10]"As-Safir", July 06, 2013, July 15, 2013, <http://www.assafir.com/Article.aspx?EditionId=2506&ChannelId=60429&ArticleId=656#.Ud470m-Cn54>

[11] "Al-Ahram", July 18, 2013, July 18, 2013, <http://www.ahram.org.eg/News/884/11/221658/الاعمدة/مصر-لم-تعد-عثمانية-يا-أردوغان.aspx>

[12]"Dampress", July 04, 2013, July 15, 2013, <http://www.dampress.net/index.php?page=show_det&select_page=28&id=29359>

[13]"Arabi-Press", July 10, 2013, July 16, 2013, <http://www.arabi-press.com/?page=article&id=79308> ; "Saut Aqbat Al-Masriin", July 06, 2013, July 16, 2013, <http://www.egyptian-copts.com/article.php?id=20774>

[14]"Arabi-Press", July 08, 2013, July 16, 2013, <http://www.arabi-press.com/?page=article&id=79076>

[15]"Al-Bida Press", July 06, 2013, July 16, 2013, <http://www.albidapress.net/press/news.php?action=view&id=29202#.Udv-UG-Cn54>

[16]"Ad-Dustour", July 11, 2013, July 16, 2013, <http://www.addustour.com/ViewTopic.aspx?ac=%5CArabicAndInter%5C2013%5C07%5CArabicAndInter_issue2088_day11_id502591.htm#.UeTsGm-Cn54>

[17]"Arabi-Press", July 10, 2013, July 16, 2013, <http://www.arabi-press.com/?page=article&id=79232>


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