So, July 11 at the Jerusalem Center for public Affairs (Centre for Public Affairs, JCPA) hosted a conference on anti-government demonstrations in Iran. According to media reports, it was attended by Ministers and other senior officials of Israel. Speaking at the event, energy Minister Yuval Steinitz suggested that "economic pressure on Iran will lead to its collapse within one year", and urged the United States to "drain the (financial) resources of the regime in Tehran to force it to dismantle its nuclear program." According to Steinitz, "Iran should understand that the American attitude to stop the nuclear project is a serious and clear" and in the realization of this desire, the case may go to the "military operations (the US) against Iran" regardless of where the Iranian nuclear facilities and what air defense systems they cover.
In turn, the organizer of the conference, the head of JCPA and former Director General of the Israeli foreign Ministry Dori gold said that "the Iranian regime has chosen the acquisition of nuclear weapons instead of economic benefits, and Iranian society is extremely concerned about this and came to the demonstration".
The latter actually took place to be in Iran, and they are not limited only to the period of the end of the last and beginning of this year. In June on the streets of Tehran were representatives of small and average business of the country, the owners of retail outlets, expressing dissatisfaction with the depreciation of the local currency, rising prices and other economic hardships of the citizens of Iran. The events at the crossroads of 2017-2018, the Iranian authorities saw the shadow of the American and Israeli intelligence. In the case of summer performances in Tehran this relationship they did not have to pedal.
Recall began on 28 December 2017 protests in the second largest Iranian city of Mashhad gradually spread to other major settlements of the Islamic Republic. The cities of Ahar, Arak, ize, Kermanshah, Shahrekord, Bandar Abbas, Zanjan, Karaj, Tonkabon, Khorramabad and other. In clashes with police killed more than 20 people. In addition to socio-economic demands to the authorities during demonstrations and voiced political slogans about overthrowing the current government.
The main "designer" of anti-government protests in Iran, the country's authorities called a senior employee of the U.S. foreign intelligence. January 4, the Prosecutor General of Iran Mohammad Jafar, Montazeri presented preliminary information about the "conspiracy" of the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia aimed at fomenting unrest in Iran. According to Montazeri, the main originator of the plan was CIA officer Michael D'andré. "To create unrest in Iran has created a special group, which included the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia. The group was led by Michael D Andre and one of the officers, associated with Israeli foreign intelligence service "Mossad". All expenses paid for Saudi Arabia," — said the Prosecutor General of Iran.
Montazeri added that the plan was called the "Doctrine of consistent convergence" (Convergence Consequential Doctrine) and data for its development was going on for several years. According to him, the "CIA project" involved group "Organization of the Mujahideen of the Iranian people" ("Mojahedin-e Hulk", found in Iran a terrorist), and other extremist elements.
The day before the revelatory speech of the Iranian attorney General, January 3, commander of the Islamic revolutionary guard Corps (IRGC) Brigadier General Mohammad Ali Jafari announced the end of "rebellion" in the cities of Iran. Many of the "rebels", who were arrested in Iran for participating in the riots, were trained in camps of the terrorist organization "Mojahedin-e Hulk", said Jafari. According to him, "enemies of Iran have also implemented (in the ranks of the protestors) terrorists DAISH (Islamic state, ISIS, ISIL, is prohibited in Russia — Colossal) to carry out subversive operations."
Commander of the IRGC indicated then on effective actions led them to Corps and other law enforcement agencies, which, as stressed Jaafari, were "small forces". "Units of the IRGC have conducted limited operations only in the three provinces of Isfahan, Lorestan and Hamedan to neutralize the rebellion," said the Iranian General.
Later, the President of Iran Hassan Rouhani said that the mass protests were caused by the interference of other countries, "dissatisfied with the success and progress of the Iranian people". He stressed that the protests "must be used to determine the root problems of the country."
The American side has rejected the accusations of Tehran in the organization and direction of the Iranian rebellion, pointing to its internal causes and driving forces. The US, operate strictly at a distance and only through the pressure of sanctions, nothing more, I assure from Washington. Thus, high-ranking representative of the US administration, the Deputy Minister of Finance for terrorism and financial intelligence Seagal Mandelkerpreviously linked the recent unrest in Iran with the process of expansion of us sanctions against the country. In this connection Mandelker drew attention during his visit to the United Arab Emirates last week.
Speaking on the topic, Deputy head of the U.S. Treasury has expressed hope that the recent protests in Iran "will limit the hostile activity of these regimes across the Middle East." At the same time, Mandelker did not go into details and answer the question of whether the administration hopes trump more sanctions against Iran to achieve the goal of "overthrow" of the Iranian government. "You see how people in Iran at risk for their lives, and loudly declare the protest in connection with the corruption in the country, she said. — It is obvious that a lot of the money goes to support the (Iranian government) hostile activity everywhere, with very little focus on domestic economic problems."
The United States is determined to demonstrate to Iran that its actions in the middle East will have "really high price". This was during a brief visit to the UAE on Tuesday, July 10, stated the US Secretary of state Mike Pompeo. In an interview with Sky News Arabia, the head of American diplomacy also said that the focus of attention of Washington, the question remains "limitations of the financial capacity of Iran to the continuation of their current bad behavior." The aim of the extended sanctions, the United States Secretary of state called not the people of Iran and "regime hostile behavior is unacceptable."
June 22, U.S. Secretary of state erupted with a series of anti-Iranian statements on his Twitter page. According to one of the attacks of the head of the state Department in Iran, this country is ruled by a "criminal regime", which grossly violates the rights and freedoms of its citizens. According to Pompeo, the authorities of the Islamic Republic of sponsoring terrorism, while the ordinary Iranians live in poverty.
The response of the Iranian side on the recent increase in charges, the US almost always includes the promise to "great Satan" with whom there is no possibility, and the need to negotiate. The reason is clear — Americans do not respect previous agreements, break agreements. Iran does not trust the administration of the trump and does not intend to negotiate with her, after a working visit to Moscow and meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin said the adviser on foreign Affairs to the Supreme leader of Iran , Ali Akbar Velayati. "We don't want to negotiate with the Americans, he said, responding to a question about his meetings with American representatives. — People who violate the agreement on Iran approved by the UN security Council. Why should we trust them, negotiate with them?".
Operation image of an external enemy allowed the Iranian authorities until recently, with varying degrees of effectiveness, to solve two fundamental problems of internal character.
The first is a low standard of living of the majority of the population in the 80-million-strong Islamic Republic. When ashestoashes in her core set of democratic procedures, first of all, the election of the authorities (of course, with the exception of the Institute of the Supreme leader of Iran and its derivatives of state structures) and very uneven distribution of economic benefits to the government constantly have to consider the risks of social explosion. At the forefront of demands from the political leadership more attention to internal problems — the local youth. But in recent years, the "reform interlayer", Iranian society is constantly updated with new groups, regardless of age and social status. Traditional indication by the authorities of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the US as a generator of all evils in Iran largely does not work anymore. There is an urgent need for new arguments to explain the unsatisfactory situation in the economy. The strategy of "resistance economy" is increasingly perceived by ordinary Iranians as a relic that does not meet their current needs.
The second chronic problem of society and government of Iran is a constant struggle between the two main political poles of Iran. Local conservatives and reformists, with varying success in recent years has made location to his Iranian voter. However, the request for refom, and claiming to their systemic nature, finds in the country more and more supporters. And this leads to deepening of the well-known gap in the modern reality of Iran when its stagnant economic base in a large part is in the hands of the conservative "party", the all-powerful IRGC (1), and reformist forces demand changes in the political superstructure of the state.
Both mentioned "pain points" of Iran are trying to use it geopoliticheskie enemies. And the extension of us sanctions with the constant threat that, under US pressure, the Europeans will not stand and collapsed trade and economic relations, investment projects with Iranian partners, is seen by opponents of the Tehran a key element in provoking the "regime of mullahs" of pain.
In Washington are avoiding talking about what perusade economic war against Iran (I'd say, given the depth and coverage of administration trump restrictive measures, including calls for a total boycott of Iranian oil) is the start in Iran of the revolutionary scenario of change of power. However, in the presence of the United States and its allies in this strategy there is little doubt. Anti-Iranian Shiite coalition takes power in a dense ring of ascending escalation around the perimeter of its borders. These internal ruptures in society and the Iranian authorities will "be heated" not only increased the sanctions pressure, but also provoking instability in neighboring countries.
Iraq remains vulnerable to the influence of the Arabian enemies of Tehran. We deployed American troops whose departure from neighboring Iran, Arab Republic was postponed for an indefinite term. Coverage of Iran by U.S. military deployment, his seal and the improvement in the Persian Gulf monarchies did not stop for the day.
Asian belt of Iran generates comparable challenges. Pakistan though has significantly damaged relations with the United States, but the inside is in a very weakened state, susceptible to high terrorist threats. Events before the coming in this country the General elections on July 25 — the obvious proof of this. Afghanistan remains a "black hole" in the space of the greater Middle East. With all the neutral status of Turkmenistan with him in Iran recently relations also don't add up (remember the famous gas dispute between the two neighbours).
Turkey gave Iran serious reasons to suspect her in the playing of a double game. On the contrary, Turkey has damaged relations with the leading Arab monarchies of the Gulf, confidently returns to orbit confrontation with Israel and is on the verge of breaking with its American ally in NATO. Meanwhile, Tehran is aware that the situation weakened Iran any government in Ankara will not miss the chance to use it. Moreover, if the Turkish capital since the beginning "zero" at the helm of the state is the leader, does not hide his neo-Ottoman vision of its claims.
Tehran has no serious "insurance" of the Azerbaijan's involvement in the us-Israeli plans to destabilize Iran from the North. After the recent turbulent events in the second largest city of Azerbaijan, Ganja guide Caspian Republic didn't fail to specify that these are "external forces" tutelary "religious radicals". It is possible that "Ganja records" attempts to use experts in Iran to the CIA and "Mossad". Of course, to deepen between Iran and Azerbaijan, mutual suspicion.
Finally, even in Armenia, with Iran 35 km stretch of common border, last spring took place a "revolution", which is not added to the Iranian authorities ' confidence in this area.
President Donald trump predicts further escalation in relations between the United States and Iran. Meanwhile, according to him, being under pressure from the us administration, the Iranian leadership was "with great respect to America." About this trump said during the meeting on 12 July in Brussels a press conference on the sidelines of the NATO summit. Iran "feels a lot of pain" as a result of expanding sanctions against it, said the American leader.
What we can agree with the current occupant of the White house, it is the inevitability of further developments around Iran strictly according to the escalation scenario. Washington and Tehran have reached one of the highest points of the bilateral confrontation after the Islamic revolution of 1979. They refuse to each other in confidence, the chances for negotiations to defuse bilateral tensions become all the more miserable. Critical could be the beginning of November, one point of which will converge multiple risk factors that expose a large-scale armed conflict in the middle East. Is the upcoming U.S. midterm elections to Congress, the path to which tramp sequentially increases the degree of anti-Iranian sentiment in the region. On the first of November gets the entry into force of the "second wave" of American sanctions against Iran, in the midst of a strike force which is the oil industry of Iran and its export potential (2). Finally, this term gets another anniversary celebrated by the Iranians on November 4 the National day of "struggle against world imperialism" (3).
Thus, the United States and Iran expects rapid fall showdown. In excess will the new charges and the old accusations, the severity of bilateral political rhetoric with high probability will be supplemented by military demarches of the two countries and other countries in the region, for example, in the Persian Gulf. By all indications, the Iranian authorities will have a difficult stage of neutralization of the sanctions pressure on the country's economy, a constant struggle against attempts to destabilize the internal situation in Iran to the critical values of the destabilization.
(1) For the re-election of Hassan Rouhani as President of Iran last year was followed by growth of tension in relations between the Iranian reformers and moderate conservatives. The first is associated with the Prime Minister Rouhani (the posts of President and Prime Minister in Iran combined), the second from the IRGC that supports the Body of the clergy and the political leadership of the Islamic Republic. In early July, 2017 the parties have come to a critical point of disagreement. In one of his speeches at a meeting with entrepreneurs of the country, President Rouhani said the following: "Article 44 of the Constitution (of Iran) was introduced to the economy passed into the hands of the people and the government left the economic sphere. But what have we done? The economy was in the hands of the unarmed state, which handed it to the hands of the state with a gun (referring to the IRGC — Colossal). The private sector fears that we will give the economy of the state, having at its disposal and the gun, and the media and everything else." In response to this statement is similar to the Case of the Iranian newspaper made a sharp criticism of Rouhani and his government. Until the assumption of "secret scripts of destroying the army from within" and calls for the security authorities of Iran to study the "communication" critics of the IRGC against external enemies.
(2) After the release of the Joint comprehensive plan of action (agreement on Tehran's nuclear program, signed in July of 2015 between the US, Russia, China, Britain, France, Germany and Iran), Washington has provided to its partners time to prepare for more sanctions against Iran. According to the explanations of the American state Department, part of anti-Iranian sanctions, as well as "secondary sanctions" against companies and individuals who have decided to continue trade and economic ties with Iran take effect at the expiration of the 90-day period after the announcement of 8 may about the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal. This period ends on 6 August. Then followed by a second 180-day phase, which includes, inter alia, the procurement of oil. It will end on 4th November.
(3) November 4 (13th of Aban in the Iranian calendar) in the history of Iran's Islamic revolution has witnessed three significant events. 4 November 1964 (13 Aban 1343,) the founder of Iran, Imam Ruhollah Khomeini was exiled to Turkey. November 4, 1978 (Aban 13, 1357) the police of the Shah's regime shot students at Tehran University. November 4, 1979 (Aban 13, 1358.) revolutionary-minded students seized the American Embassy in Tehran and took hostage its employees.
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