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Hassan Rouhani will be forced to change orientation
Material posted: Pankratenko Igor N.Publication date: 06-07-2018
Iran's President blamed the failure of the economic and social course of the United States.

Grand Bazaar of Tehran, the economic heart of the Iranian capital and the main nerve of her public life, the place where nearly forty years ago began the Islamic revolution, on Monday of last week closed within an hour. Buyers with amazement as fall blinds on the Windows of many shops, as busily facing the street traders, and those who were slow in closing, and something waited, flew angry shouts: "Coward! Scared! You're not a man!" Human streams from the commercial transitions are merged into a stream, which was moving towards the building of the Iranian Parliament, his fence is already hastily lined up in the chain of the Metropolitan police – focused, determined, but still slightly confused. Because such a violent reaction of the capital's streets on two-fold jump in the value of the dollar – in the evening gave him 42 thousand riyals, and in the morning asked for 90 thousand, the authorities did not expect.

Loyal to the President, the media immediately called it the "revolt of shopkeepers" irresponsible elements who do not understand the complexity of the situation and prone to panic over "only" falling at twice the rate of the national currency and, as a consequence, the same twofold growth of prices. In the same vein, made a televised address to the Iranians, and the Hassan Rouhani. "To blame US and those who believe foreign propaganda – was coined it from the screen. – I promise that the people's basic needs are met. We have enough sugar, wheat and vegetable oil. We have enough foreign currency to buy all the necessary people."

Maybe someone he believed. But in any case, not the MPs of the Iranian Majlis, 187 of which (and the Parliament's 290 MPs) signed in the days of the "revolt of shopkeepers" an appeal to the Supreme leader Ali Khamenei with a request to force the President to change the economic bloc of his Cabinet. In full force. Because these officials are, in the opinion of the deputies themselves, and the greater part of Iranian society, were responsible for the deterioration of the socio-economic situation in the country, resulting in mass protests taking place. And if every performance in the cities and provinces of Iran are considered a Wake-up call, it is obvious that this social service for the last nine months is clearly "mad".

"The revolt of shopkeepers" – only an episode in the chain of mass protests, in fact, and does not stop in Iran after the "hot January," when protests against the economic policies of the current administration of the President of Iran swept across 75 cities of the country, not beating almost any province of the Islamic Republic. Rouhani loyal local elites that at the time that in the present case, blame the Americans and the Israelis, and along the way – and their political opponents, the conservatives. Which, according to Pro-government circles, if you do not organize protests, then at least tacitly support them.

Paradoxically, some truth in these statements there – and "the hands of the US and Israel," and that the conservatives publicly criticize Rouhani with maximum rigidity. But that proportion as more than economic and social policies of his own team, Hassan Rouhani does not harm anybody. No his opponents to cause him more trouble than doing his own entourage.

The bankruptcy of domestic and foreign policy of the Iranian President obviously. From its ongoing reforms won only a narrow stratum of residents of "North of Tehran", where villas with pools and private stables live the most successful local businessmen, "held" on the export, import and financial transactions. Unemployment, that scourge of Iranian youth continues to rise, incomes fall, out of the country last year were exported $ 27 billion. – a record amount over the past decade. And "good times" promised by the reformers, not only close, but are some really, really vague term.

And if Rouhani and his team said that much of the blame for the corruption of their predecessors, this argument no longer works. Since "mettle into the hands of" reformers have long surpassed the corrupt officials from the conservative camp. And surpassed so much that a few days ago, Ayatollah Sadeq Amoli Larijani, head of judiciary of Iran and the brother of speaker of Majlis, Ali Larijani, promised to the corrupt officials and persons involved in economic crimes, toughen penalties for relevant articles up to 20 years of imprisonment or even the death penalty.

But all this, perhaps, would not be critical in nature – in most countries the situation is not much different from Iran, and because somehow right – if not a very alarming symptom. Social protest for Iran – it is quite familiar, the people there are, contrary to stereotypes, are quite active in defending their rights, and in the expression of public discontent with the officials. But lately, the signals of "mad clock" begin to emanate from the regions, which in Russia would be called "national border regions".

A month before the "revolt of shopkeepers" protested Khuzestan, rich in oil reserves, the province inhabited by Iranian Arabs. And the protest was heavily involved on the economic requirements, and to accuse the Central authorities of discrimination on a national basis.

Just a couple of weeks before went outside workers of the Grand Bazaar in Tehran, the unrest occurred in the province of Sistan-Baluchestan, the real problematic point of Iran bordering Afghanistan and Pakistan. There, the protesters demanded to punish the officials guilty of harboring a series of mass rapes of local girls.

Moreover, you do not have time to calm down Tehran with new force protests erupted in Khuzestan, this time in connection with a serious shortage of drinking water. And to disperse the protesters, the authorities were forced to use force...

And these protests in the provinces, especially in multinational, most alarming for the Iranian leadership. What we must respond even at the risk to upset the balance between the elites. No, the Supreme leader is not likely to send Hassan Rouhani to resign. But what he will make him seriously to change the policy of the Cabinet, is quite obvious. Another way to turn off the "mad clock" the leadership of Iran just yet.

Igor Pankratenko


Tags: Iran , USA , assessment

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