The reformists barred the way
On Friday, Iran will hold parliamentary elections, the results of which is expected to strengthen the conservative camp. Problems the politicians of the reformist and moderate wing began at the start of the campaign in December last year. Anyone wishing to take part in the elections must pass the test of the guardian Council of the Constitution (it includes 12 people — six clergymen appointed by the Supreme leader and the country's leader Ali Khamenei, and six lawyers from the Parliament), which was announced in early February, overcame at least half of the applicants of the nearly 16 thousand candidates were registered 7148 people. According to British The Guardian, screened 60% of the candidates, and this is the highest suspended since the revolution of 1979. In the elections of 2016 attrition was 40%, while approximately 12 thousand candidates.
President Hassan Rouhani, a politician of moderate views, and the speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani, who belongs to the conservatives, have submitted to the Council of a request to review the results of the selection candidates. But was refused, the guardian Council of the Constitution charged that they are "ill-informed" about what is happening in the country. In January, Rouhani harshly criticized the Council for its disqualification of reformists and moderate candidates and said that "all approved by the guardian Council's nominations to represent the same faction of hardliners".
In Iran, where political parties in the traditional European sense, policies are divided into three camps — the reformists (the most liberal part of the political spectrum are in favor of cooperation with the West), the conservatives (supporting the policy of the Supreme leader, the most conservative ideas, including limiting cooperation with the West) and moderate, occupying an intermediate position.
Parliamentary elections are actually controlled by the Supreme leader, as manifested in the mass disqualification of reformists, said the Advisor of the PIR Center Julia Sveshnikova. "In fact, the entire composition of the guardian Council of the Constitution depends on Ali Khamenei, who directly and indirectly through members of the Board affects those candidates who will eventually participate in the elections," she explains. "The chances of Rowhani supporters, conditional supporters of the liberal policy, quite a few" — according to senior researcher of the Institute of Oriental studies, Professor Vladimir Sazhin: "of Course, Parliament will be filled mostly by opposition to the President, radicals, represented mainly by the Islamic revolutionary guard Corps (IRGC). May will also feature "the swing" conservatives".
How is the Iranian Parliament
The Iranian Parliament (Majlis) is elected by direct secret ballot for four years. It 290 seats, five of which are religious minorities. Candidates for the remaining 285 mandates — citizens from 30 to 75 years who profess Islam. To vote can a person under 18 years of age. Now have the right to vote about 60 million Iranians. Elections are held according to a majoritarian system to win in the first round it is necessary to collect two thirds of votes.
In the parliamentary elections of 2016, a coalition of reformists (the unit "Hope"), having 119 seats (41,03%), prevailed. The second result showed the coalition of conservatives (of principalists) with 84 seats (28,96%). A group of "Independent" has received 65 seats (22,41%), moderate coalition "the voice of the people" — 10 places (3,44%). The turnout in the first round was 62% and the second 59%.
Who helped the protests and the collapse of the nuclear deal
In the four years that have passed since the previous elections, a victory which celebrated the Alliance of reformists and moderates, the situation in Iran and its relations with the outside world has changed dramatically. Enclosed in a 2015 Joint comprehensive plan of action on Iran's nuclear program (SVPD) was virtually destroyed in 2018 by exiting the United States; the Iranian economy is decreased due to restored us sanctions. The elimination of the US in the early years of one of the most influential commanders of the revolutionary guards Qassem Soleimani was another factor that strengthens the position of the conservatives.
Politics Donald trump played into the hands of the most radical anti-American and anti-Western forces in Iran, which will affect the increase of their representation in Parliament, says Sazhin. All the latest events benefit the conservatives, they use them in the campaign, trying to present the situation so that in the elections they did not oppose the reformists, and the external threat, says Sveshnikov. However, among the Iranians prevails understanding that all of the past issues of Iran due to the actions of the United States, and inept governance, she adds: "it is Difficult to mobilize people on this platform. No offers serious programs, all trying to play on emotions."
In November last year, the government of Iran announced a 33% increase in fuel prices. This caused massive unrest within a few days demonstrations have covered almost all regions of the country. According to Reuters, about 1,500 people were killed in clashes with security forces during two weeks of protests. The Agency also refers to the November protests one of the most serious problems for the Iranian government since the Islamic revolution of 1979.
Even before this crisis, many Iranians are disillusioned with the government and was going to boycott the elections on 21 February, says Al Jazeera. On 5 February, state TV and radio Iran IRIB announced the results of voting in the Telegram, according to which 82% are not going to go to the polls on February 21. "The political situation is extremely complex, but a full boycott of the elections will not be", — said Sazhin. Discontent is there, but it is associated with dramatized political process, lack of credibility of the elections, which will not change anything in the country. "To vote means to strengthen the legitimacy of the current regime," — explains the possible low turnout Sveshnikov.
Strengthening the conservatives will lead to the fact that tensions between Iran and the United States will continue to grow, said Sazhin: "the Political line followed until recently President Rouhani and his government, of course, will change." If the election will take the upper hand of anti-Western radicals, will continue the rapprochement between Tehran and Moscow and Beijing, he says.
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