Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Politics and Geopolitics / / Articles
Iran received a break?
Material posted: Publication date: 15-10-2012

The strategic situation in the Middle East entered a new phase in the Syrian balance of power between government forces and rebels, Israel withdrew from the agenda the question of holding this autumn attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

"We are dealing with an entirely new situation, when the immediate threat of an Israeli military action against Iran and then connect to it the US pushed back from October to the middle or even the end of 2013, – said the employee of the London-based International Institute for strategic studies. – Iran received a much-needed 10 months to strengthen its position in Syria and Lebanon”.

The signal about the change in Israeli policy toward Tehran was the speech at the UN General Assembly in new York, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. "Poker of Israel, who made a bid to blackmail the upcoming election of Barack Obama in order to force him to accept the Israeli vision of developments in the nuclear energy program of Iran, failed", – remarked in this connection, the British radio station bi-Bi-si.

"Since the beginning of this year, Netanyahu constantly claimed that no country in the world has no moral right to stop an armed Israeli operation against Iran, writes the London newspaper "financial times". – ... Prime Minister, finally gave up this tactic. In his speech at the General Assembly he introduced a new time schedule for a possible military operation". "Netanyahu has said that Iran will cross the "red line" next summer when he has enough highly enriched uranium to build a bomb. By this point, according to him, the strike will be necessary", – the newspaper writes. "Now the question is: how will Obama to this new "red line", – notes the edition. – Even if Iran will accumulate to the future the fly are needed for one bomb quantities of highly enriched uranium, Iran would need another three months to process this uranium in weapons. And this will become known to the international inspectors. The U.S. will also receive the necessary time to prepare an armed response."

Meanwhile, according to informed sources, the Israeli position has changed after August 17 on the Iranian underground plant at Fordow was made a diversion. According to the available data, the interruption in Fordo power due to detonation of high-voltage lines led to the accident on the gas centrifuge system as IR-1, and more modern IR-4. They worked on uranium enrichment to 20 interest level for "medical purposes". Informed circles inform that in the premises of the underground factory was set on fire. Now the enrichment process is stopped. According to the estimates of Western intelligence agencies accident that the Iranian authorities called "sabotage", for 6 months – until spring 2013 – has pushed Iran's acquisition of 240 kilograms of 20-percent enriched uranium.

As a result, according to working in London Western diplomats, the conditions for a new round of talks with Iran and the adoption of more stringent measures of influence on Tehran if it refuses to increase the transparency of its nuclear energy program. However, in any case, Iran received a much-needed respite, and the country's top leadership may work in the medium term, not daily fear of possible attack of Israel and the United States.

According to the information available here, Iran has stepped up its actions in Syria in order to try to preserve the regime of Bashar al-Assad and increase its presence in the Middle East region. All the evidence suggests that Tehran is now trying to get out of this in Syria is a geopolitical deadlock due to active actions. As it became known there, the armed forces of Syria are creating a new elite guard, the quantitative composition of which is set in 60 thousand soldiers. "Western intelligence received evidence that the armed militia, the backbone of which are ethnic alawites, now converted into a guard, similar to the Case of the Iranian "Islamic revolutionary guard", – said the interviewer.ITAR - TASS informed British source. According to him, the preparation of the new elite units are located in Syria, Iranian instructors, whose number is estimated at 2 million people. "We expect that in the coming months, government forces will be replenished by the shock structure that risked dragging out the conflict in Syria and to give the Assad regime a new perspective", – said the expert.

According to British military analysts, the created guard is able to provide if necessary the protection of areas of compact residence of the Alawite Mediterranean coast of Syria with the cities of Tartus and Latakia. Thus, at the same time conditions are created to in case of defeat in Damascus, the Assad regime, the alawites have the necessary strength for the partition of Syria and the establishment of their own Republic on the Mediterranean coast.

At the same time, Iran has intensified pressure on the Lebanese Shiite group to gain a higher degree of control. So, in London it became known that Hamas had signed a secret Protocol with Iran, which has assumed obligations under broad military support of members of the strategic tripartite Pact / Iran, Syria, Hezbollah/ in the event of war with Israel. According to the available data, the Hamas movement that controls the Gaza Strip, will highlight its most combat-ready units of the total number to 20 thousand persons Protocol obliges Hamas "to participate in joint action with Iran, Syria and Hezbollah against Israel". Military analysts report that the document "sets out the conditions, procedure and format of the participation in a coordinated Hamas operations against Israel."

In the summer of 2006, Iran and Syria signed a military cooperation agreement to counter "common threats" from the United States and Israel. Soon it was joined by the Lebanese Hezbollah, but the agreement itself has received the status of a strategic tripartite Pact. Now joined Hamas.

Meanwhile, Brigadier General of the Case "guards of Islamic revolution" by Amir Ali Hajizade stated in mid September that Iran "is able to undertake a pre-emptive attack on Israel". "Iran will not start war, but may take a pre-emptive attack, if the enemies are ready to attack," he warned.

A key role in the efforts of Iran is now Syria. "To change situation in Syria, the balance in your favor, involved in the conflict parties have to engage new and powerful potential, – said the employee of the London-based International Institute for strategic studies. – As a result, in the near future we should expect new and unexpected steps from both Russia and from the other side". While experts believe that the West and its allies in the region – primarily Turkey and Saudi Arabia – are faced with considerable difficulties in the implementation of its course towards Syria.

"Latest developments in Syria in favor of the armed opposition supported by the West, said in an interview with correspondent.ITAR-TASS British military intelligence. Included in the economic capital of Syria – Aleppo the rebels did not aim to win the hearts and minds of the urban population. They had one goal – to capture and hold Aleppo. As a result its population has seen that represents the opposition the destruction and lawlessness".

With this assessment generally agree and the British media. In Aleppo, the correspondent of the London "times" Anthony Lloyd said on September 29, live radio station bi-Bi-si that the people of Aleppo do not believe armed opposition groups "liberators". "They see them as people from the villages who come into town and destroy everything, not paying attention to anything, he stressed. – As a result of Aleppo do not support the opposition, but he did not openly support the Assad regime."

As a result, independent experts have concluded that the middle class Syria, the most economically active social circles do not see the armed opposition and its allies don't want to come to power. "The middle class Syria remains neutral and that the government of Bashar al-Assad has a significant chance to break in the end the balance of power in the country," said Corr.ITAR-TASS Western diplomat.

The consequence of this development of events was the deterioration of Turkey's positions, which leads in the region the struggle for the overthrow of the Assad regime, according to London. Turkey has embarked on such a complex and large game in the Middle East region, Ankara may not have enough forces to win it and not to fall under the weight of problems. This conclusion comes from the London newspaper "financial times". Commenting on the situation in Syria the situation, one of the Turkish officials, said: "We have shouldered an incredible load, we are at the limit". "It's not our problem, it is international", he concluded.

The protraction of the conflict in Syria has led to the fact that Turkey was in a frontal confrontation with its neighbor and in the face of challenges, thrown on her own territory. The current difficulties are not only a consequence of export of instability from Syria and rising sectarian sentiments, they also demonstrate that regional and internal vulnerability can affect ascending Turkey.

Washington believes that Turkey can play a major role in the efforts to remove Assad. However, this task became a heavy burden for Ankara. "The Turks were drawn into the conflict, without having planned, said a senior international diplomat. – They made a brilliant work on the reception of refugees. Now, however, they themselves on the brink of catastrophe".

Several years ago, Turkey has been at peace with its neighbours. Now the situation has changed. Syria and Iran declared Turkey a "hostile state". Ankara is also deeply disappointed with its Western allies, primarily in the U.S., which refused to support the creation of a buffer zone with Syria. "President Obama prefers a protracted way of fighting, similar to Afghan in the 80-ies, – said analyst of the Washington Center for strategic and international studies Bulent Aliriza. – However, for Turkey it's not perfect, she doesn't want to turn into a second Pakistan, which served as the rear for the Afghan rebels. It is able to create, as in Pakistan, such a strong inner power, from which the country will run out."

Indeed, the internal tension is already evident in Turkey: recent polls show that two-thirds of voters oppose current government policy in relation to Syria. Today in the camps in Turkey are 84 thousand Syrian refugees. Another 30 thousand in various parts of the country.

The export of Turkish products to Syria reduced from $ 1.6 billion in 2011 to 200 million in the first seven months of the current year. Tourists from Syria, whose number reached 1 million a year, now missing. However, most problems take action fighters of the Kurdistan workers ' party, amid the chaos in Syria has increased its attacks on Turkish troops.

Turkish opposition now has a powerful attack on the government, claiming that it was necessary to preserve the neutrality toward Syria. According to most Turkish and Western analysts, Prime Minister Erdogan went further than they should, seeking the creation of a buffer zone with Syria and supporting the Free Syrian army. As noted, the current policy of Erdogan against Damascus was caused by shock when he saw the footage of the burning of the Turkish flag in Benghazi in retaliation for the "slowness" of Ankara's recognition of the Libyan rebels.

However, a particularly tough stance Turkey has taken toward Syria after Syrian air defenses shot down in June, the Turkish military aircraft. A few days later, Erdogan asked NATO to consider the possibility of establishing a buffer zone on the border with Syria, and although the allies tried to dissuade him from filing such requests. NATO was concerned that such a move could be interpreted as preparations for war.

Through a variety of channels now brings Erdogan to US President Obama their disappointment with the actions of Washington. Officials believe that Obama is capable of taking a more assertive position after his possible re-election in November. "We still expect the United States to act," said the Turkish official. According to him, the longer the world waits, the more drastic is the situation in Syria, where foreign extremists train Syrian rebels and preach their ideas. However, the United States believes that the buffer zone would require the imposition of ban on flights to the Syrian air force. And for this it is necessary to destroy the air defense system to Syria, which has a high level of combat readiness and is not comparable to the Libyan.

At a time when the Kurdish separatists intensified their efforts, as part of a team of top army officers were convicted of involvement in a plot against the government, Erdogan has already made it clear that he has no desire to carry out a unilateral intervention in Syria. "We will not fall into the trap of doing anything in circumvention of the UN", he said last week the newspaper "Washington post".

However, Ankara's role as a leading opponent of Syria, provider of rebels and weapons, a supporter of the creation of a buffer zone angering Damascus.

The protraction of the conflict in Syria carries significant economic problems for Iran, which is under stringent international sanctions. In an attempt to prevent the deterioration of the national economy of Iran, imposed last week on domestic currency market of the country's multilevel system of exchange rates. In accordance with the new system, importers of Iranian food products that have the highest demand of consumers – meat, grain, sugar, vegetable oils, and drugs gained the right to buy dollars at the exchange rate at 12,260 rials. This is two times lower than the current free-market floating exchange chart. In turn, the importers of cattle, metals and mineral commodities are exchange rate, which at 2 percent. below a certain trading day on the open market.

All other companies and individuals, including nonresidents, acquire currency at the free rate, and assuming that the market remains available amounts after operations have completed the first two categories of buyers. To maintain the new system from last Monday in Iran started currency exchange centers, which are under the control of the Central Bank of Iran. "The current measures of currency regulation are the result of the action against Tehran international sanctions, – said the radio station bi-Bi-si. – Since the beginning of this year, the Rial has depreciated against the dollar by 50%, however, this process has intensified since July – after the introduction of the EU embargo on imports of Iranian oil."

At the same time Tehran is preparing to move to a new model of economic development, which provides support to the domestic market, while reducing dependence on exports of oil. This was stated by an influential Iranian politician, Secretary responsible for macroeconomics of the Council on the definition of political expediency of the Islamic Republic of Iran /Iran/ Mohsen Rezaii in an interview published by the London newspaper "financial times". "Developing a new system that was set up in the next year or two to upgrade the country's economy, he stressed. – It is neither austerity policies nor shadow, but a model of functioning in terms of sanctions".

According to Rezayi, in the heart of the new economic policy is the idea of relying on our own strength. "We intend to develop the economy of resistance, when countries are against sanctions," he said. Among the major provisions of the new policy – replacing the export of goods produced within the country; reduction of taxes on production; the repeated extension of barter in foreign trade, including oil; increase foreign investment; reducing dependence on oil exports. Mohsen, Rezaei acknowledged that "the Iranian economy will be felt in the next 7 – 8 months the full effect of acting against Iran the international sanctions." The latter were recently extended to the West. He said that "in permanent mode now working two government commissions intended to help Iran avoid sanctions." One is headed by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, another – the first Vice-Premier Mohammad Reza Rahimi.

It is not yet clear whether Tehran, where the presidential election is approaching, to take full advantage represented by the break, while Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Israel now faces the need to find more strong and effective steps in order to attain its regional geopolitical objectives. In this sense, the region starts a new batch, which can be both extremely complex and transient.

Source: RODON

RELATED MATERIALS: Politics and Geopolitics