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Iran provoked an agony of Saudi Arabia
Material posted: Publication date: 14-01-2016
The Middle Eastern conflict comes nearer to the apogee. Intentions of key players every day become more transparent, and actions everything are more impudent and more provocative.

Saudi Arabia suffering military disaster on two fronts with coming to power of the king Salman accepted a package of anti-terrorist laws, having given a free hand to Riyadh in fight against opposition. Local dogs of totalitarianism acquired the right to execute any opponent of the mode and very willingly to them use. The day before the Sunni monarchy executed 47 enemies of a throne, including the Shiite sheikh Nimr an-Nimra and his 18-year-old nephew.

The offended supporters of the Ayatollah rage on all region. In Iran tried to crush and burn a diplomatic mission Sauditov. In reply the kingdom declared a rupture of the relations with Islamic revolutionaries and advised ambassadors of Tehran to collect belongings and to leave the country in 48 hours. At the leader of the Arabian sheikhs handed over nerves, and the objective reasons, both external, and internal, for this purpose is enough.

The price environment on oil became the real nightmare for a ruling dynasty. 30 dollars for barrel of the Arabian barrel allowed to impose the budget with deficit of 16% of national GDP (98 billion dollars). Could be worse, but Riyadh poblefovat statistics, having covered part of a hole with external loans.

The part of experts holds the opinion: Are guilty! Like, the tverdolobost of sheikhs resulted in excess of oil in the world market. From here and collapse. But, at all odium of the Middle Eastern modes, the local ministries of oil to accuse language of idiocy won't turn. To raw officials as to nobody else, the share of a speculative component of the hydrocarbonic price tag is known. And therefore, how many dump production local campaigns, required effect it won't be reached. Where it is better to increase it, without having let on the market of the Iranian competitors from whom gradually some Spanish banks already started buying combustible oily liquid. Production of raw materials gives to the state treasury of 92% of receipts and unreasonably to lose the markets in such conditions, at least.

Was planned not to start up Tehran to petrodollars in the military way, having turned Syria and Iraq into puppets. But the Mesopotamic meat grinder went not according to the scenario of Riyadh. Bashar al-Assad's regime with assistance of Russia, Iran and Lebanon not simply escaped, but also turned into counterattack on some sectors of the front. From IGIL forbidden in Russia at the kingdom Dzhebkhat An-Nusra of weather in the Syrian bandit underground doesn't do difficult relations, local branch of Al-Qaeda under a label. To interfere with proxy war by open invasion the king can't afford. Though armed forces are equipped and are financed much better than the Russian divisions, at the level of the advanced American parts.

About a tactical and organizational infirmity of the Saudi military the western experts compose legends. Nine-months invasion into Yemen under control to Houthis bared all defects of military power Riyadh. The Arab coalition which is at war against semi-guerrilla groups managed forever to lose some hundreds of people, 6 warplanes, more than 10 helicopters and about ten praised tanks Abrams. It is clear that the semi-toy army won't sustain full invasion into Iran. At best, remains at the in Yemen and will prolong the instability period in Mesopotamia.

One more disturbing call for Saudi Arabia – an internal political situation and dynastic crisis. The aged king Salman if to trust the western source, suffers from senile dementia and Alzheimer's disease that for absolute monarchy is critical. On hearings, the formal power is in hands two Mukhammadov – the nephew Ibn Naif and the son Ibn Salman which voluntarism was already opposed by some tens sheikhs more small from a ruling dynasty.

Until Stabilization Fund is filled with money, for the future of a throne are afraid it isn't necessary. But what will be in 5-7 years of low prices of oil when the jug starts running low? Whether will reconsider the attitude towards old partners in Washington which got used to suspect some steps forward? Not incidentally the Congress continues to make advances to the Ayatollah and his theocratic mode checked for durability without serious political contradictions.

Long ago it is clear that in this region the mankind deals not with some gangster small party and primitive chaos, and with well thought over global war of interests of the world capital in which religious figures, terrorist groups, quite to themselves secular dictators and a number of the countries which participation in this fight initially wasn't supposed were involved.

For the time being the part of "sacrificial lambs" was assigned to Syria and Iraq. Who knows, whether there will be in their company no once mighty Saudi Arabia which historical mission powerful western bankers will count executed.

Sergey Runko

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