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Iran-Israel conflict and an expert of fantasy
Material posted: Pankratenko Igor N.Publication date: 02-03-2018
The interception of the Iranian drone, the destruction of the Israeli F-16 in response, the Israeli air strikes on targets in Syria in February this year led to the fact that many foreign and Russian experts talked about the inevitability of a large-scale conflict between Iran and Israel, and - in the next year and a half. To journalists of several publications about the likelihood of such a development coordinator projects TSSOP, Igor Pankratenko.

Some Western and Russian experts say that the world is now on the brink of a major middle East war between Iran and Israel. How would you evaluate these statements?

Before answering this question, I propose to retreat a few steps back in time in order to understand the peculiar mechanism of occurrence of these absolutely enchanting statements that appeared in various media resources.

So by the end of 2017 intermediate outcome of the civil war in Syria began to gain for Israel a fairly spicy character. Yes, the main result was certainly positive - Syria as a main political and military opponent of Israel in the Levant, as a powerful link in the "axis of resistance" to the Israelis ceased to exist. The country is, in fact, has become a set of territories, each of which de facto exists as a result of the actions of outside players - Turkey, Iran, Russia, USA...

The leaders of Israel could celebrate the death of their old enemy, Damascus, if not one circumstance - a massive extension of the presence of Iran and its leading ally in the Levant - Hezbollah movement, "Tehran proxy" - Shiite battalions from Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

But this is only the tip of the iceberg, only one, the purely military part of expanding Iranian presence. Tehran is also actively acquires a strong position in the remains of the Syrian economy (deposits of phosphates to a monopoly on mobile telephones) leads to the formation of the army of the Syrians who gets to rent the land, starts the reconstruction and new construction of military facilities on the territories controlled by Damascus. Settles, in short, in his area of responsibility/de-escalation/occupation can be called anything.

That is, failing to rejoice in the destruction of his local enemy, Israel was faced with the fact that the ruins of Syria again there is something anti-Israeli, and as if not more effective in military terms than it was before. Naturally, this is quite sufficient reason to sound the alarm, hastily to build a system of countermeasures, including by air strikes on Syrian territory. What Israel has been doing already since the end of 2013.

Israeli air force attack on Iran and Hezbollah in Syria has become an everyday phenomenon for which no one not particularly responsive. Would not have caused a special resonance and the case of the attacks in early February of this year, if returning fire would not be destroyed by the Israeli F-16.

And it is this fact excited the media. That there is daily war in Syria - routine, routine, boring. And here is the event in the much-loved journalists, the style of "blood, guts, all to pieces". Naturally, following the journalists excited and so-called "experts", seeking "hot" to snatch their moment of media fame. Here is how something so ordinary, in General, the episode is happening now section of Syria was perceived almost as the beginning of Iranian-Israeli war.

That is, in your opinion, the real prerequisites for war is not there?

No, there is not. Moreover, neither Israel nor Iran is a large conflict on Syrian territory not interested.

Here because that's another thing. The undeclared Iranian-Israeli war in the form of combat intelligence and special operations in the vast territory - from Latin America to Europe, from India to Azerbaijan, from Pakistan to the Persian Gulf is very long and does not stop even for a day. Moreover, sometimes takes a very acute form, it is enough to recall the series of killings of leading figures of the Iranian nuclear program, Mossad operations in the province of Sistan-Baluchestan and so on.

The current level of that opposition sides are, so to speak, satisfied, and to promote it they are for a number of reasons for not going. And Israel and Iran, there are a set of constraints, securely restraining them from stalling in the full-fledged military conflict in Syria. For example, a few limitations of the Iranian side. First, Tehran has a lot of very expensive task for the development and protection of the territory remaining under the control of Assad. And yet another front in the South, he did not need too great a risk to lose already available, and even incur a huge economic cost.

Secondly, such a conflict will put the Crescent on the Final agreement on the nuclear program of Iran and will lead to new ambitious and comprehensive sanctions, then Washington will try, and EU support him in this. Tehran is well aware, and therefore did not intend to give the anti-Iranian lobby is a reason for the return of the sanctions regime.

Thirdly, the Iranian leadership has no illusions about the behavior of Moscow in the case of such a conflict, that is, Tehran is not just alone with the prospect of international economic isolation, and could get hit in the back of his current partner "of the axis".

So, the scale of the conflict will not, but the confrontation between Iran and Israel in Syria will continue. It is clear that Israel will get support from the West. But Iran can expect in this situation, Russia's support? Judging from the previous answer, you are very skeptical attitude to this possibility.

Not just skeptical, I simply deny it. Moreover, I believe that Moscow will reject all evasions and directly stand on the side of Israel. And here I proceed not so much from the words of the Deputy of the Russian Ambassador in tel Aviv, Leonid Frolov, them, if desired, can be interpreted in different ways, how many of the real situation. First of all, what I have repeatedly said and will say, Syria and Iran between Putin and Netanyahu has long existed a tacit agreement, the terms of which the Kremlin, for its part, performs rigorously. That is, the interests of Israel to Moscow is incomparably more important partnerships with Iran.

In addition, the Russian side as well as the Israelis are seriously concerned about the increased presence of Iran on the Assad-controlled part of Syria. The border of Iranian and Russian zones of influence here are not yet completely carried out, which, as you know, creates sustainable conditions for further conflict between Moscow and Tehran. And, if anything, the Russian side will not miss the opportunity to "move" the Iranians.

Speaking about the escalation of the Iranian-Israeli confrontation in the middle East, particularly in Syria, we cannot fail to mention the other regional players, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey. How will they behave in this undeclared war between Iran and Israel?

I think that the question, on whose side was and will be Riyadh - completely rhetorical. With anyone, if only against Iran. And on this issue between the Saudis and the Israelis there are very specific agreements, supported by equally specific actions, including cooperation in operations against Tehran.

After a joint Israeli and Egyptian military in the Sinai, after signed the scale and scandal of a gas contract between the two countries - the answer to the question of the position of Cairo is also straightforward. The leadership of Egypt - as if this is not treated the local community - watch with caution, but I will support Israel in all its anti-Iran endeavors.

As for Turkey, we need to understand that Ankara's policy - they're neither anti/Pro-Israeli or anti/Pro-Iranian. She - and this is a huge achievement Erdogan, someone has earned the respect, and from whom, and tantrum - only Pro-Turkish. That is, in assessing the situation and choosing specific steps in relation to the Iranian-Israeli conflict, Ankara will come solely from the promotion of their own interests and their own national security. Paradoxically, it is this position of Turkey in present conditions the most common.

Igor Pankratenko

Tags: Iran , assessment , war , Syria , Israel


нетбез-Ж+ответада (02-03-2018 15:03:39)

Уважаемый Игорь Николаевич! Актуализация темы в Иран-Израиль в январе-феврале 2018 года связана не с обострением противостояния между этими государствами. Основой является предвыборный политический цикл в России и появление произраильского кандидата П.Грудинина.

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