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The results of the Vienna meaning and effect of the agreement on Iran's nuclear program
Material posted: Pankratenko Igor N.Publication date: 26-07-2015
The collection of materials, revealing the essence and the course and outcome of the negotiations of the West on Iran's nuclear program. The heads of the collection previously published on the website as independent information materials.

The negotiations of "six" which has successfully come to the end in Vienna in July of current year, have left dual sensation at the majority of the international experts. This duality is caused by general impression from negotiating process and that geostrategic situation against which negotiations came to the end.

First of all, it is necessary to remember that negotiations lasted thirteen years. They began in the conditions of rigid opposition IRI to the West. Some times for this decade conditions round Iran became complicated up to premilitary - the West aspired to break in every way Teheran and to achieve full and implicit humility.

The special role in this business, certainly, belonged to Israel - the country which has accurately designated the domination in region, and under no circumstances not wishing to share this status with somebody. Especially, if it is a question of occurrence possibility in region of the second player possessing the nuclear weapon.

Heat of struggle and the involved means have appeared so wide that opposition IRI and the West has become history even as the first intergovernmental conflict in which the information weapon has been used - virus StuxNet (recognised military working out of Israel and the USA) has been applied to a contamination of control systems by concentrating factories for the purpose of slackening of the nuclear program of Iran. It is interesting that in the subsequent StuxNet has been found out in Russia in a control system of one of the atomic power station and even at the International space station. From its part, Iran has caused a stir, having put in the territory the newest American bespilotnik that has caused a serious discomfiture in the American army.

Russia also throughout all trunk-call period tried to take a maximum of profit for itself, unfortunately, not always getting to the general global context. So, in particular, happens with blocking of the contract on delivery to Iran of complexes of air defence С-300. Following in a fairway of the international line of conduct concerning Iran has led to that in the subsequent Russia has got to situation rather unpleasant for which has demanded delicate diplomatic game.

Actually, all period of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program has coincided with the reconsideration period Russia own place in new international system of co-ordinates. If in the beginning of work of "six" Russia still was in a camp of the of "the western partners» to their termination Moscow has appeared not only in almost full isolation, but also in a condition of new Cold war with the West.

In many respects drift of the Russian identity aside bolshego the national sovereignty, and the changes of a global context connected with it became original causes of success of the Viennese negotiations of "six". The West has considered that threat from Iran is less significant today, than threat from Moscow, and has decided to play own party in the world oil market, having freed Teheran from a unit of sanctions.

On the other hand, as serious positive stimulus to the termination of the period of sanctions against Iran can be considered and change of sights of the USA on a situation in the Near East as a whole.

A number of experts believes that today the USA consider variants of reorganisation of allied relations in region: to the place of Israel and Gulf monarchy the new player who can become the radical Islamic state can come.

Indirect acknowledgement of that Israel last years feels nekomfortno, it is possible to consider that fact that Tel Aviv has actually taken of the Prorussian position across Crimea and a situation in the Southeast of Ukraine, has not supported the sanction of the West against Russia, and according to a number of mass-media, the considerable unit of repatriates from Israel is ready to return to the Russian Crimea.

Actually, the combination of these, and also variety of other less significant events and their consequences also cause that diplomatic game, by which result of a steel results of negotiations in Vienna. To say that is a certain compromise, it means not to tell in general anything. Iran is necessary today to the West only as the tool in the oil and gas market, and also the bridgehead for a campaign behind raw materials to the Central Asia - painfully actively behaves in this region last years China, and the trustworthy alien at Washington so here and has not appeared. Especially it concerns Azerbaijan which was in many respects considered for a role of such ally, but last months have highlighted variety of questions external and internal policy of Baku which does not allow Washington to rely on reliability of this partner.

Than visibility of a victory for Teheran while to tell difficult will turn back. For years of action of the international sanctions, economy IRI was strongly distorted, the sector of an oboronno-industrial complex is seriously hypertrophied, many forces leave on formation and development of the nuclear industry and almost remain nothing on the decision of social problems. As a matter of fact, it can be one of the most significant threats for present administration in Teheran: in case of full removal of sanctions and opening of home market for the foreign goods, national manufacturers cannot resist to their onslaught, and the situation in Iran will repeat that that has led to disorder of the USSR in the early nineties of the XX-th century when the considerable unit of gross national product of the country was spent for maintenance of its defensive capability in a damage to the development of social projects.

At the same time it is necessary to recognise historical importance and the importance of results of negotiations under the Iranian nuclear program - undoubtedly they will mark themselves a new stage of development not only a regional situation, but will cause changes and in world politics.

For this reason today so it is important to study background of formation of "six", the negotiating process beginning. It is important to understand, how this process corresponded with those features of a world situation which we observed throughout all ten years of negotiations. And, certainly, a result and consequences for all participants of negotiating process.

And here it would be desirable to express words of gratitude to the expert of the Center of strategic estimations and forecasts, the chief-editor of the Russian magazine «Modern Iran» to Igor Nikolaevichu Pankratenko for that invaluable work which it has done, preparing the present collection of materials. I believe that the collection of articles, on a theme of the Viennese negotiations and agreement consequences under the nuclear program for Iran will be interesting to the widest audience: from students and the post-graduate students only still studying the international relations, to venerable scientists who can find for itself new accents and new foreshortenings of an estimation of those events, which already steels for us contemporary history.

Sergey Grinjaev

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