Following the results of the first round of 10 elections in Medzhlis the situation looks much more difficult, than someone's victory or someone's defeat. Moreover, observers have faced frank magic of the Iranian policy which intervention complicates a picture of deals in a political field of Iran even more and complicates the answer to a question on results and consequences of the elections which have taken place on February, 26th in Islamic republic.
However - one after another. And it is necessary to begin with figures. The indicator of an average appearance of voters on the country seriously "walked" from a province to a province and, finally, has made according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Iran about 62 percent (in 2012 - 64 %). And if in the same Teheran the quantity of the voted has made 48 percent from total number of voters living there in a number of districts it reached and till 70-75.
It is already known that the quantity of women-members of parliament in Medzhlise 10th convocation will increase to 20, and 14 from them represent a coalition of "reformers" (about why reformers, conservatives and independent are written by me so-called - hardly more low).
Following the results of voting, even taking into account the second round which will take place in a month, in April, the structure of deputies of Medzhlisa was updated for 68 percent. And only 32 % of members of former Council of experts could keep the places.
According to official figures, the quantity of places in parliament for three, taking in their part of coalitions - "conservatives", "reformers" and "independent" - was distributed as follows: "conservatives" - 103 places (in 2012 - 195), "reformers" - 95 (in 2012 - 30), "independent" - 14 (in 2012 - 60). As well as it is provided by the country constitution, 5 places belong konfessionalnym to minority - to assyrians, zoroastrijtsam, to Jews and followers of the Armenian church. The fate of 69 more parliamentary armchairs will be solved in the second round. It is quite enough resulted figures to understand - to any of blocks participating in elections it was not possible to reach treasured number 146 - that is, quantities of the places which are required for the parliamentary majority.
The situation with elections in Council of experts looks as follows - 27 places from 88 were received by "conservatives", 20 - "reformists", 41 place was occupied with "independent".
What Medzhlis and Council of experts can?
To understand internal political results of the last elections and dramatic nature encircling them, it is necessary to be clear in the mind about a place and Medzhlisa, and Council of experts in political system of Iran - the most complicated mechanism of controls created by great imam Khomeini and counterbalances.
If to simplify - however, it is not too strong - the Iranian parliament is "headache" for administration of the working president, and it is not too important, what surname at this president - Ruhani, Ahmadinedzhad or somehow still.
medzhlis approves the budget, ratifies the international agreements, this most important thing passes laws, but not. More important that first, the parliament can oust any minister, and at necessity (presence of two thirds of voices) - to bring the Supreme leader of the country an attention to the question on discrepancy of the president of a post. And that can dismiss easily such president without any referenda and other bureaucratic procedures.
Secondly, without approval of Medzhlisa the presidential administration cannot obtain foreign loans, carry out privatisation of the objects concerning to «national property» and even simply to employ in government agencies of foreign experts. And besides, in direct submission of Medzhlisa there is a Financial court of the country, analogue of Audit Chamber which according to the constitution of Iran «checks or inspects all accounts of the ministries, the state enterprises, establishments and other structures, which though to some extent use the state budget of the country to be convinced that expenses have not exceeded the approved credits and that each sum is spent correctly».
That is, without cooperation and presence of labour relations with the Iranian parliament - and the present president of the country Hasan Ruhani, and its command are simply deprived possibility to conduct the liberal economic reforms providing privatisation, loans, the invitation of foreign experts and many other things.
If Medzhlis plays an important role in a country everyday life if the parliament possesses powers to solve weight of questions Council of experts is engaged only in one. But - key for Islamic republic. Each six months of 88 its members collect at the closed meetings in which course solve, whether present Rahbar of a post is worthy. And in passing - update the list of those who can become its successor in case of death, resignation or displacement on "unsuitability for a profession". The Term of office at councillors of experts twice longer than at members of parliament - 8 years. The elite this year remains on the places till 2024. To present Supreme leader Ali Hamenei in July 77 years … will be executed
"Reformers" - at all reformers
"Well", - someone will object, - «let reformers on the last elections and have not gained a convincing victory. But they have seriously consolidated the positions and have pressed conservatives that in Medzhlise that in Council of experts. And it means that liberal reforms of president Ruhani will pass now more successfully. And to opponents of these reforms it will be much more difficult to resist to them». Outwardly similar logic looks faultlessly. But here also there comes the moment for that explanation why speaking about "conservatives", "reformers" and "independent" on present elections it is necessary to apply inverted commas.
Many journalists and the observers writing about Iran, get to a terminological trap. Speaking about "parties", "reformers", "conservatives" - they start with the western understanding of these terms, trying to squeeze specificity of Islamic republic in frameworks habitual for their understanding. In a reality to describe political specificity of Iran in these terms extremely difficult.
Actually, reformers, in understanding habitual for us, practically did not accept participation in present elections. Them "have cut" at a registration stage - from 12 thousand the persons who have put in the statements for desire to stand for parliament, as candidates 6 229 persons, that is half have been registered only. At this stage the barrier to has been created what sights and ideas were extremely undesirable - though liberal, though fundamentalist. And instead of liberals-reformers on elections there was a coalition of the "reformers" which structure causes easy bewilderment.
The president of the Center of parliamentary researches Kazim Dzhaljali still recently demanding a hardening of punishment for leaders «Green movement», ajatolla Mohammad-Ali Tashkiri who one month ago has declared that «in the politician is correct only a way of conservatives, and ways of reformists and independent - an error», eks - the minister of investigation ajatolla Mahmoud Alavi - all these people suddenly became members of a coalition of the "reformers" going on elections under the slogan «the Strengthening of stability and hopes». Unless it not magic?
Similarly affairs and at a coalition of "conservatives", and at "independent" were. Without going into detail of intrigues and combinations - at once to a conclusion: on 26th of February Iranians voted not for liberals or fundamentalists. They chose between the supporters of a rigid line insisting on preservation in inviolability of principles of almost forty-year prescription - and their more moderate opponents considering that some changes in economy and social sphere nevertheless are possible. The basic principle of Islamic republic - «velajat-e fakih», «namestnichestva lawyers» led by the Supreme leader - is not called into question neither "reformers", nor "conservatives", "independent".
Shortly about prospects
In connection with told above we will absolutely explain scepticism with which results of elections were met by the American establishment: «All political processes occurring in Iran, both were, and continue to remain under careful control of a clerical Shiit top». «On present elections Iranians could choose only between the most reactionary supporters of a rigid line and them hardly less reactionary opponents», - take out a verdict of analytics and observers in Washington, leaving conversations on «a victory of reformers» to journalists. - «If deepening of dialogue also will occur to the West, it will concern only Europe. Relations of Iran with America still remain the extremely difficult and inconsistent».
Quite fair conclusion as even if in administration Ruhani someone also would not refuse dialogue from the USA it simply does not have such possibility. Questions of a policy of Iran in such points as Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, relations with Saudi Arabia and many other, not less sharp - under the authority of office of the Supreme leader and the Case of guards of Islamic revolution.
The structure of 10th Medzhlisa formed after passed elections and Council of experts - at all has not shaken system of controls existing in the country and counterbalances. The top management of Iran managed almost impossible - to replace liberal reformers "reformers" correct, those who does not call into question main principles of Islamic republic.
Today before the Iranian management there is a difficult dilemma. On the one hand - the country needs modernisation which will allow it to answer more effectively modern calls in economy and safety sphere, more flexibly to react to the changes occurring both in the Iranian society, and on international scene. On the other hand - this modernisation should not lead to erosion of values of Islamic revolution and principle audit «velajat-e fakih», «namestnichestva lawyers» led by the Supreme leader.
«Under control modernisation of Islamic republic» - a problem not simply difficult, it unique. As show results of elections-2016 while its Iranian management quite manages to solve. Let even with the help partly "magic" receptions …
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