The situation around the nuclear program is heating up with each passing day. In the Persian Gulf increases the strength of the American Fleet. Maintenance total sanctions against Iran has become a fact. Tehran is prepared to resist, including militarily. Meanwhile, continuing tensions in the middle East is extremely advantageous for Russia, because it supports high oil prices and, in fact, is sponsoring its Imperial ambitions. Will there still a war in Iran? Perhaps today is the most important question of world politics.
"Comprehensive assessment of the situation around Iran shows that the situation around the Islamic state formed a tense, - commented Sergey Grinyaev, doctor of technical Sciences, General Director of the Center for strategic estimates and projections. – There is every reason to believe that in the near future will remain the trend for further aggravation. A lot today depends on the development of the situation in Syria is an important ally of Iran in the region. However, in the summer of this year may come the denouement".
"SP": - what scenario, in your opinion, will develop the solution to the "Iranian" issue?
- I believe that the conflict will occur, rather, between Israel and Iran than between the U.S. and Iran. Although, of course, States will not leave its ally, and will assist, as they did in Libya, when the Pentagon formally chose to stay on the sidelines. The reason for this is the proximity of the presidential election campaign in the United States.
In recent years we have seen the implementation of the strategic plan to reshape the world, brought to life the fundamental reality changes as a result of several key factors: proximity to the exhaustion of hydrocarbons, the rapid development of information technology, transforming the world economy and world finances and some other.
One of the goals of this plan, it seems, is to establish control over the key oil fields. Another object is the reformatting of the geopolitical map of the new world, in which roles should be distributed otherwise than on the map "developed imperialism" of the twentieth century – today requires a different configuration of the geopolitical centers than in the last century.
It is for this reason we observe such a dramatic picture in other parts of the world – in Europe. This geopolitical center does not fit into the new picture of the world. He's too tied to dwindling reserves of oil and gas, making it the most manageable suppliers of hydrocarbons.
"SP": - this Means war unprofitable Europe. But how she can make her own decisions, or, as always, will do whatever they tell you in the USA?
- Over the years the EU, as a governance mechanism one of the geopolitical centers formed and the control mechanisms themselves. This, by the way, "corporate" style of the British Empire "Great game" - to shape the situation so that, if necessary, to be able in the future to change it, if something goes wrong. Example is India-Pakistan border or on the African continent, drawn not without the participation of Britain and have generated a lot of regional conflicts.
The legal basis of the existence of the EU was formed during the Cold war under the watchful eye of U.S. and UK for the consolidation of efforts in case of emergencies. And it is not possible to think of autonomy of EU action in the rigid context of the current situation.
It turns out that today these mechanisms are involved. Under the influence of Iranian and Russian deliveries of raw materials, Europe is becoming more compliant with their suppliers, which casts doubt on the leadership role the U.S. and NATO, and yet there is still China. I believe that in the near future we will witness the catastrophic transformation of the present structure under the name "EU". But this is another theme.
"SP": - How Europe will be able to replace the Iranian oil deliveries?
- In the short term, it is possible to increase the supply of hydrocarbons from several countries of the Persian Gulf, Libya, Algeria and Iraq. However, the main supplier, of course, will be Russia – another so obvious (primarily because of existing transport infrastructure) alternatives yet. No coincidence that today is taking diplomatic measures to enhance control over Central Asian resources, access to the market which continues to depend on Russia.
By the way, these actions will lead to further convergence between the EU and Russia that it fits in the overall plan for addressing the EU as a geopolitical force, as it will allow to strengthen intra-European conflicts and to speed up the collapse of the system.
"SP": - Why is the US so persistent? Case in geopolitics and in pursuing their financial and economic interests?
- U.S. in nature and in its role in the modern world are interested in inciting any conflict, anywhere in the world, if only he were not directly affected "vital interests" of the United States. It so happened that in conditions of instability of world financial capital prefers to "hide" in the dollar under the protection of U.S. aircraft carrier connections. So "to whom war and to whom mother is native". The situation in the States is not ideal, but instability in the world makes them relatively more attractive than other economies in the world, leading to increased investment flow, so necessary for the voracious American economy.
In addition, work in conditions of instability – the American Pipit (I would even say Anglo-Saxon) diplomacy. The undoubted achievements of the last decades is that were able to combine the enormous benefits of information technology (Internet, social networks, etc.) and traditional "multi-pass" of British diplomacy. Today we are witnessing the practical application of this creation.
Then, how to implement a foreign policy strategy of preserving the dominance of the U.S. in the changing world is nothing but "information blitzkrieg". Its essence is that the US manages to impose and to maintain this rate of carrying different sort of action, which turns out to be unacceptable for any other party - participant of the events. Remember 1941. Why smaller German army succeeded in the first months practically to defeat the Red Army with much more potential? It is because possessing greater mobility (both technical and managerial) of the German army were able to impose and sustain this pace of implementation, first of all, strategic operations, which was unacceptable to the red Army. Today we see almost the same steps, but at a new technological level – often, many of the actions we have to react after the fact, not ahead.
Not less important is the fact that making certain operational steps, the United States always remain on their own once the course is world domination should remain with them. And here can happen some interesting things – the former allies became a burden in the new environment, immediately discarded, and are approaching those that yesterday were seen as irreconcilable enemies (which, incidentally, is also known Anglo-Saxon).
"SP": - let's go Back to the "Iranian question". What is the role in this conflict, China and India – the largest consumers of Iranian oil. Without them, sanctions against Iran are unlikely to be effective.
- Sanctions against Iran – it is still a tool against Europe, not against China, India or Japan. As for China, it will make up for the lost resources again through Russia, Turkmenistan and Vietnam. For India the situation is really complicated. However, it also in the scenario of the "Great game". If India will not fully compensate for the loss and this will lead to the decline of the economy, it will become an additional stimulus to the escalation of tension in relations with Pakistan, which is already in full swing in recent months.
"SP": - the aggravation of the situation will be beneficial to Russia or we will lose more after the start of the global recession due to a sharp rise in oil prices?
The situation is such that its complication is profitable for Russia. We need expensive oil (and gas too). This is especially necessary in the second half of this year – taken pre-election social promises require serious financial investments, but money in the economy not so much. Noncompliance will lead to further growth in an already tense social situation in the country. Expensive oil stabilizes some inner passion, but it will support the economy in the next six months, what will be further – to predict difficult. Previous experience shows that the lack of real modernization of the economy no matter how high was the price of energy, it becomes increasingly lacks: oil and gas needle works just like a needle junkie...
"SP": - Iran and Russia are neighbors across the Caspian sea. There are transport communications, including oil and gas. Do not put any of the occurrence of a major armed conflict under the threat? How can the situation develop in the region in the event of a strike on Iran?
- We are neighbours with Iran (unlike the US and the EU). That will not go away. Moreover, the role and importance of the Caspian region will only increase. This is why today Russia and Iran on the Caspian sea, rather than simply neighbors, but the competition for dominance in the region. Russia in recent years has seriously lost its position here, but Iran increasing them.
Again, not random sees the escalation of tension in the region in recent months. Turkmen and Uzbek gas is a very desirable commodity in the European market.
With regard to the development of the situation in the region ahead of a possible aggravation of the situation around Iran, I would pay attention to the following events. USA under the guise of withdrawal of troops from Iraq, held a redeployment of its ground forces. Continuing strong pressure on Syria. Hesitant Turkey firmly put in place by France, at the same time changed the picture of preferences in Transcaucasia. Intensified the Kurds both in Turkey and in Northern Iraq. Kazakhstan shocked a series of "folk" performances. Uzbekistan received additional support from the U.S., as well as Kyrgyzstan, which does not require the withdrawal of U.S. bases from its territory. Afghanistan transformed in recent years into a powerful springboard for the U.S. army in the region – the number of American/NATO bases per unit area it has no equal in the world. The cases of targeted killings of key figures in scientific and military-political environment of Tehran. So, by and large, all ready for aggression against Iran – a country besieged on all sides, leaving only some "cosmetic" actions of diplomats and spies to complete the full picture.
"SP": - What in this world look foreign policy Russia's actions as in the case of preventing armed conflict, and in the event it starts?
- As I mentioned above, Iran for Russia in recent years has gradually turned from a partner into a competitor for dominance in the geopolitically important Caspian sea region. However, in this more the fault of Russia itself, which in recent years sluggish conducted foreign policy in Central Asia and the Caspian sea, often does not have its own strategic view on the development of the region. In this way, also seen some interest – a conflict involving Iran will inevitably lead to the fall of its role in the region for several years to come, will no doubt, in the interests of Russia.
However, the change of the current regime in Tehran for Moscow even more negatively, as will further complicate the situation for Russian companies in the global energy market. While Moscow perceives Iran as a partner in addressing some of the most important energy projects in the region. Although Iran in this matter chose to maintain my "a" game. A good example of this is the repeated statements of the Iranian party to launch my very own gas exchange in the economic zone on Kish island, and refusing in the energy pricing for US dollars. However, the issue remained unresolved – until no one can destroy US hegemony in the pricing of strategic commodities (including, by the way, Russia itself). At the time, the attempt of Iraq to be abandoned in the calculations for oil from the US dollar was one of the most important incentives to aggression USA and NATO against the country.
In the case of conflict prevention by peaceful means, Russia will have to increase dramatically its foreign policy efforts in the region, as seriously militarized Iran would pose a serious danger to the economic interests in the region.
As for foreign policy moves, in recent years we've had (time and again) to see how it would happen.
In the event of a conflict, Russia will attempt to use the mechanisms available through a number of international organizations, primarily the UN. However, the effectiveness of these actions will be negligible – you may be able to slightly delay the interchange, but no more. Once again we will hear the brilliant performance of our representative to the UN, but not in his power to influence the situation. If the decision to attack on Iran is made, then Russia to prevent him not. Moreover, the internal political situation today makes more attention and effort be paid to the situation within the country, and not outside.
The only force that can have a significant impact on the situation, is China. Moreover, the guidelines of its policy in this matter he has already named, said he would be forced to join the conflict in the event of aggression against Iran, as Moscow considers unacceptable the possible economic and political losses. I suppose that now comes the big trade with the celestial Empire. And, as is often the case, unexpected moves are possible: for example, Taiwan will be delivered in exchange for loyalty to Iran...
"SP": - What is the fate of the Bushehr nuclear power plant in the event of a conflict, and can it hurt our citizens working at the plant.
- The role of NPP, as one of the elements of Iran's nuclear infrastructure, will be unenviable – it will be destroyed, although the reactor will remain intact – the radioactive contamination of the terrain is not in the interests even of aggressors.
Russian personnel working at the station and Embassy staff from the beginning of the conflict will not be affected. Russia has a rich experience in the withdrawal of their citizens from danger, so this time the MOE will work perfectly.
The question, of course, in the other – what will be the picture of the world, if hawkish views will prevail in US politics, and the instinct of self-preservation Israel gets out of control, leading to greater aggression against Iran? The answer to this question, we'll find out soon enough...
The first violin will play Israel?
Western countries increasingly believe that Israel can strike Iranian nuclear facilities, the French Le Figaro quoted InoPressa
The crisis caused by Iran's nuclear programme are entering a crucial phase. On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed the European embargo as a "first step in the right direction," but he also warned that "sanctions should evolve as progress is achieved".
"Despite the secret war, during which killed four Iranian scientists in nuclear physics, explosions occurred at military facilities, there has been a virus attack on the computers that provide the work of enterprises for uranium enrichment, Tehran continues to implement its nuclear program and, according to most experts, in the near future will be able to develop nuclear weapons.
Western countries, primarily the Americans, fear that the Israelis could mount a surprise preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities than provoke a full-blown crisis in the middle East.
Israel calls a "red line", the possibility of sudden acceleration (Iranian nuclear) program, the Americans believe that this feature is still not close, said the former head of Israeli intelligence Amos Yadlin in an interview with the Israeli newspaper Maariv. - USA is world power and has the strategic capabilities that are of Israel".
Israel perceives the Iranian nuclear program not as a diplomatic problem but as a threat to its existence, the article says...
"According to the British weekly Sunday Times, during a telephone conversation between Netanyahu and us President Barack Obama, Israeli Prime Minister refused to rule out the possibility of an attack against Iran, promising to put Washington on notice about his plans for 12 hours, in other words, at the last minute with a diplomatic and military point of view," the author writes.
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