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Round table "Iran on the stage of the "Great game""
Material posted: Publication date: 22-04-2012

One of the main drivers determining the development of the military-political and military-strategic situation in the world in the last year is the situation around the Islamic Republic of Iran. Since the end of military action against Libya and the overthrow of the Gaddafi regime, active world politics has shifted to the region of the Middle East.

However, detailed assessment of the current situation and retrospective study of the current situation around Iran makes to analyze other scenarios and versions of the possible future evolution of the situation in the region, not just the "frontal" scenario, the armed opposition coalition led by the US and Iran.

One of the main drivers determining the development of the military-political and military-strategic situation in the world in the last year is the situation around the Islamic Republic of Iran. Since the end of military action against Libya and the overthrow of the Gaddafi regime, active world politics has shifted to the region of the Middle East.

However, detailed assessment of the current situation and retrospective study of the current situation around Iran makes to analyze other scenarios and versions of the possible future evolution of the situation in the region, not just the "frontal" scenario, the armed opposition coalition led by the US and Iran.

First of all, requires answer to the question: why military action against Iran is being discussed right now? The fact that this country is actively working to develop nuclear industry, it was clear even ten years ago. Moreover, in 2003-2006 was the best time interval suitable for an attack on Iran by the US (if they really wanted): it was during these years in the region was concentrated the largest military capabilities, including groups in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan and the Central Asian States, and the myth of "international terror" was still not so scruffy. In addition, in those years, Iran's nuclear potential was much less diversified and protected than today. And why is North Korea with nuclear weapons, several years before Iran became a pariah in the eyes of the West?

The second issue that also needs discussion: why Europe is deep in a protracted crisis, so freely, and partly suicidal, was admitted with a question of introduction of sanctions against Iranian oil.

Third question. Why so ambivalent behaves in Iran? On the one hand – glib anti-American and anti-Israeli rhetoric, an active information and propaganda (for the masses), and secret negotiations Iranian bankers in Switzerland, multi-year pledges to abandon the dollar and the Euro in payment for oil and the reluctance to actively implement the project of oil and gas exchange in the economic zone of Kish island.

Fourth question. How is the situation in the region, two terminal cases: in the event of an attack on Iran, and in the case of a peaceful resolution of the conflict? As for Russia, the estimates suggest that in any case the situation for our country will be disadvantageous in the event of an attack on Iran can be expected only short-term rising prices for oil and gas, and then the energy market will be monopolized by Pro-American actually companies that will make more effective the famous "oil weapon". If the conflict will be resolved peacefully, on the southern borders of Russia the situation will be determined by the militarized foreign policy of Iran, which has its own view on the future of strategically important Caspian sea region.

This version seems to be the most interesting. If we assume that there is no conflict then and there. Rather it is, but the U.S. did not want war with Iran. This war is pushing them today, exclusively Israel, which does not suit multi-pass and long-term policy of Washington in the region, it has only parochial interests. Actually the US goal is to form in the region opposed to the monarchies of the Gulf, and simultaneously a significant power fist in the Caspian sea region. We can assume that the sluggish situation of crisis when the regulator's activity will be American aircraft carrier group, then incoming, then coming out of the Gulf will continue for another few years.

Today is the results of such possible scenarios – powerful information propaganda carried out at the end of last and beginning of this year, formed the Russian political elite sustained the perception that the war against Iran is inevitable in the coming weeks, and expected that energy prices will break all records imaginable. Based on this assumption, and constructed the social unit campaign. However, in the first months of the current year, it became clear that the U.S. is not eager to attack Iran, at least until the autumn of 2012, but financial obligations have already come into effect – as a result the Russian budget in February had a deficit of 300 billion rubles. Thus, we can assume that the United States conducted a successful information operation, which resulted in incorrect strategic decisions of the Russian leadership.

So what is the situation, the protagonist of which is Iran? And so if placed accents global expert community? On these and other issues are invited to meet our experts.

Center for strategic assessments and forecasts conducted a rapid survey of experts in the CIS countries, the results of which are available in the following materials of the round table.

Tags: Iran , round table


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