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Russian expert: "Iran will be able in a very short time to build an atomic bomb"
Material posted: Pankratenko Igor N.Publication date: 05-11-2018
About new U.S. sanctions against Iran and their possible consequences for the entire region said in his interview "Yenicag.Ru — a New Era" , the Russian expert, doctor of political Sciences, Deputy General Director of the Center for strategic estimates and projections Igor Pankratenko.

— The Chinese authorities have decided to reduce purchases of oil of Iranian origin because of U.S. sanctions against Iran. It is believed that Beijing could not withstand the economic pressure from Washington and were forced to retreat. That means China's abandonment of Iranian crude oil to Tehran? How will this affect the economy of Iran?

— I would formulate an assessment of the situation is a bit different — a decision made by the leadership of the China National Petroleum Corp. and Sinopec — to freeze in November of purchases of Iranian oil, and then — depending on the outcome of negotiations trump and XI Jinping means that the policy of "look East", proclaimed in the summer of this year, Hassan Rouhani has failed. Like a number of his other foreign policy initiatives.

That is, Beijing has refused to grant Iran the status of "the exclusive partner", whose interests he is ready to defend Washington. While I would like to draw attention to the fact that in the period of crippling sanctions Obama, China behaved in this situation a little differently. So, Beijing in this period not only reduced, and more than doubled its trade with Iran — with $ 28 billion in 2009 to nearly $ 48 billion in 2014. What does this mean? In the first place that Rouhani and his team have been unable in the last couple of years to build full-fledged relations with the Chinese leadership. And it happened because we say right, the incompetence of the administration of the Iranian President, of the arrogance and incompetence of those who participated in the formation of the "look East", a complete misunderstanding of the essence and nuances of China's foreign policy.

From the decision of China National Petroleum Corp. and Sinopec, of course, in no way implies that China will completely refuse from Iranian oil. In the summer of this year, Beijing and Washington have discussed the issue, and even then, it was agreed that the maximum for which consonant the Chinese side is not to increase the volume of oil imports from Iran. And, in addition, to increase purchases of oil from the United States. By the way, according to the customs service of China, oil imports in the U.S. from January to September this year increased by about 150 percent compared to the same period last year. While, according to this same source, Chinese oil imports from Iran in September of this year was 34% lower compared to the volumes of September 2017. That is, we can say that Iranian oil imports, Beijing will cut at least a third.

But Tehran and the team let Rouhani continues to indulge in geo-economic fantasies of how he, along with India will create a corridor "the North-South" and even create an alternative to the Suez canal. This is not the first time Iran will have to pay for the incompetence of the current presidential administration and fantasies "Sheikh diplomacy" as it is called Rouhani his admirers.

Recently a few friends of Azerbaijani businessmen returned from Iran. During the visit they visited several free trade-industrial zones of the Islamic Republic. In granskou (Rasht) and The industrial zones all enterprises are in full swing. Exports from these zones in the Caucasus to Russia, including in other continents continues uninterrupted. For example, there are companies that produce electronic equipment, various digital equipment and these products are exported to Africa and South America through European trading companies. According to these businessmen, customers and buyers of such equipment are German, French companies, which supply these goods to African countries. Including from Iran to Russia and CIS countries are supplied various spare parts for light trucks and trucks. And the supply of agricultural products from Iran is growing every year. What can you say about this? And this time the EU did not join anti-Iran sanctions "from the heart"?

Here, with these good news, because that's what you have to understand... At the time of the "grey knights" was laid more than a good and stable system bypass Iran sanctions. Which is implemented now, without any doubt, will work in the future. Is for European businesses the opportunity to grab a piece of the profits from the semi-cooperation with Iran — they will use this, remember the classics of capitalists that rope and soap for their own hanging sell.

Add to this the fact that in the modern economy completely cut off a state from external markets impossible. The issue here is slightly different. And what is the impact of these detours in macroeconomic terms? And here we must at once, and quite categorically state that aren't so great, I declare it with full responsibility as people, more than carefully worked on this topic. Some problems really can be solved, but fully develop the economy, increase the welfare of the population — does not work.

— In addition to the CIS countries and other neighbours of Iran, Turkey, Central Asian countries and Pakistan is also actively trade with him, regardless of the opinion of the United States. Amid all this, Iran doesn't even look "sanctioned country". Survived the state since the revolution, in 1979, the year when it applied sanctions against Iran, and continues to live, no famine and acute crisis. What kind of "games" these sanctions and embargoes? After all, the American company, through its subsidiaries or partners in other countries that trade with Tehran...

— You know, part of this question I have already answered. Full economic isolation of the country in present conditions is impossible, not the nineteenth and not the twentieth century in the yard, though. And even then, not very much turned out, lots of interesting historical evidence on this score exists.

But your question raised a much more important topic of the stability of the Islamic Republic. Around this there is much speculation, moreover, is frankly alarmist and incompetent conclusions, say, from day to day, the regime in Tehran to collapse, the population will take to the streets and so on. The saddest thing is that such an incompetent opinion some Russian pseudo-experts drag at the very high offices of government, misinforming the country's leadership.

In reality, as you just noticed, Iran — more precisely, the Islamic Republic has survived far more difficult conditions. Stand up now, the margin of safety it is quite decent, allowing unchallenged survive the current crisis. Since this crisis, let's just say, it is man-made, the result of mistakes and miscalculations of power, incompetence, tunnel vision on a number of issues, stubbornness, and other "virtues" of the political thinking of local elites. Well, that one person or group of people screwed up — the other can always be corrected. These, and other, healthy and adequately-minded people in the same Iranian elites, luckily enough.

Today the Internet company Facebook has announced that it has removed more than 80 pages, which are "Iranian origin." This is a significant attack on several Iranian companies, primarily in the media of Iran that are using the popularity of the social network conducted its propaganda, advertising, public relations, etc. in General, how would you assess the decision of the Internet company? This is not a political decision? After all, the US do need from the rest of the world "Internet freedom", "freedom of speech", are now themselves using administrative levers compel a private company to take such anti-democratic decision.

My dear friend, we are quite adult people and perfectly understand that the talk of "freedom of speech", "freedom online" and other human rights — a bit of something fabulous, like talking trees or disinterested officials. The boundaries of these rights and freedoms any most arhidemona and liberal government determines solely in the framework of political expediency and their own ideas about national security. Julian Assange and Wikileaks, the us is well demonstrated, but we somehow very quickly forgot about it.

As regards specifically Facebook, with the policy of its leadership, this step is quite logical and expected. The more than strange principles of blocking of accounts, confidentiality of data, reactions to some things that exist in the company — after a careful consideration of very quickly deliver from the illusions about "freedom of speech on the Internet".

Just not worth it, though, is to dramatize, to blindly believe in some ideals — then the disappointment will be less. How wonderful one of my friends is your choice of social networks at present is the choice of security services of the country in which you "trust".

— On account of Iran's nuclear program... some experts-Iranian claim that after all Tehran has nuclear weapons, the ayatollahs managed with the help of Russia and France to make a few atomic bombs for insurance. If USA and Israel decide to attack Iran, then Tehran will hold the first test. I heard about this one retired senior military. He even said that there was a landfill, and everything is ready for the first test. What do you think about this? For some reason I believe in this version that still Iran possesses the atomic bomb...

— Frankly, this version was seriously considered by a number of special services in 2011-2012. And not only considered, but also seriously checked using all available opportunities, from technical to intelligence. The results of these investigations — believe me, digging with the utmost care — was formulated the conclusion as the final diagnosis remains relevant today: Iran has the ability in case of emergency fast enough to create a bomb. But in a single instance, without the ability to put production on stream.

Personally, I have no reason to put this conclusion into question.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu unexpectedly visited Oman and met with the Sultan of this Arab monarchy. He was accompanied by the head of MOSSAD and several generals from the military intelligence. Now the intelligence Minister and transport of the Jewish state is going to Oman. There is speculation that Israel is going to build a base on the Peninsula Kumzar, which is located in the South of the narrow Strait of Hormuz. From Cape Kumzar the main port of Iran city Bandar Abbas and major oil terminals of the Islamic Republic at a glance. It is believed that placing a base on Compare the United States and Israel plan to deprive Tehran of the ability to block the Strait of Hormuz. What can you say about this? If this area will be foreign base, how it will react to Iran?

In my opinion, this is too fantastic version. Derived from the no less fantastic assumptions — as I have repeatedly said that Iran seriously intends to block the Strait of Hormuz.

The reality of the visit of the "furious Bibi" to Sultan Qaboos al Saeed are modest, and are associated primarily with the unique foreign policy of Oman. About the nuances of which it is possible to give a one-hour, no less a lecture, but I will limit myself to a few facts. Between Israel and Oman have no formal diplomatic ties, but continuously working channel to exchange ideas and communicate important messages — located in Muscat, Oman Middle East Desalination Research Center (MEDRC). Which is used not only subjects of the Sultan and Israelis — since 2011, this channel was actively used by the Iranians and the Americans for confidential advice, the Saudis, the Egyptians and many who do. Including the Palestinians, when they needed to discuss privately with Israel with certain issues.

And this time the current Netanyahu's visit began, according to credible data, to cook after the talks, which took place in February this year the Minister for foreign Affairs of Oman Yusuf bin Alawi with the Palestinians and the Israelis, in the course of it, bin Alawi, visits the al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem. So, I think, the Sultan and the Prime Minister of Israel talked about a military base, and about possible mediation of Muscat in a number of very complex issues — Palestine, us-Saudi conflict over things Khashoggi, Iran-Israel confrontation in Syria.

Talked Caucasus Lobster


Tags: Iran , assessment , USA

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