Russian expert, orientalist Igor Pankratenko believes that this meeting will be interesting, because since the emergence of this kind of "axis" between its members managed to accumulate a lot of contradictions. And even if they do not always splash in the media space, but in reality there are sometimes passions boil serious.In his opinion, important for the participants of this meeting will be the question of the boundaries of the zones of responsibility of the Ankara, Moscow and Tehran in Syria. The issue is complex, painful, but very important. As for the participants of the axle it was time to think about settling the territories that they control. And this, among other things, is also very serious money that you need to not only find, but also to distribute to projects.
That is even more difficult, participants need to build their relationship with the areas of responsibility so that let only legally, though in many respects the formal - but to preserve the unity of the state, which in fact is no more - there is a set of territories, conflicting.
Pankratenko believes that, in General, the parties can put aside their differences and come to a common denominator. Unfortunately - for a while. After some time of controversy to break out again, because the ultimate goal of both participants axes and other system players in Syria are too different.
The President of the "Consultations on international policy and economy" Fikret Shabanov considers that the main topic of the trilateral meeting of Putin, Erdogan and Rouhani will be to protect the integrity of Syria. Since the emergence levitskogo, Kurdish and Sunni political education will further strengthen national controversy three countries and between countries and will create in the region new centers as threats to the integrity of Iran and Turkey, and the threat to economic and national interests of all three States as a whole.
It therefore systematically takes place assurances and signing of the declarations are directly or indirectly associated with support for the sovereignty territorial integrity of Syria.
The previous meeting of the leaders of Russia, Turkey and Iran, which took place on 22 November 2017 in Sochi. Then the parties agreed to jointly fight terrorism and promote political dialogue in Syria. This time on the agenda the implementation of the agreements reached during the meeting and decisions adopted by the Congress of the Syrian national dialogue meeting on 30 January 2018 in Sochi.
The canadian analyst also confirms that the parties are not large differences and there are different points of view about which groups operating in Syria are terrorists. Turkey criticised the Syrian army in Eastern ghouta, in contrast to Russia and Iran. In turn, Iran supported by the forces of Syrian militia in March 2018 made an attempt to enter the Kurdish Canton of Afrin, where the Turkish operation "Olive branch". If Moscow and Tehran terrorists — militants of the East Guta, for Turkey — the formation of Syrian Kurds oriented toward the Kurdistan workers ' party.
"Moscow, Ankara, Tehran pay close attention to the policies that Syria carried out the countries not participating in the process," - said Shabanov.
The analyst reminds that earlier the US President Donald trump announced the imminent withdrawal of American troops from Syria. In turn, French President Emmanuel macron met with a delegation of the Kurdish forces and the media in France reported on a possible strengthening of groups of French special forces in a controlled Kurdish area with the center in the city of Manbij where the official Paris sent in the first stage 50 of its senior officers. "Now there is also the us military. Turkey repeatedly declared its intention to send troops to the area, and even conducted talks with the U.S. stalled after the resignation of Secretary Rex Tillerson. Turkey has made on the discussion of its troops in the town of Manbij," he notes.
The press service of the Kremlin reported that, in the final document, which will be three leader will contain the basic principles of the state structure of Syria in the future. In particular, it will be stated on the formation of a constitutional Committee, composed of representatives of the official government of the country, prominent opposition leaders of the tribes.
The interests of the "Union of three" joint projects
Fikret Shabanov said that Russia, Turkey and Iran have many overlapping interests, including in the field of nuclear energy, the formation of the joint transport and infrastructure projects.
The Union of the three has its own bilateral and regional projects and aspects of cooperation. So, in 2017, work began on the second phase of a nuclear power plant in Bushehr, Iran, which Russia is building.
In addition, according to canadian analyst, Ankara and Moscow are showing interest in Iranian oil. In August 2017, the Russian company "Zarubezhneft", Iranian Ghadir investment and Unit Turkish International has signed an agreement to form a consortium for investment in the Iranian oil industry.
Issues of cooperation with Iran in energy, along with the prospects of a free trade zone between the EEU—Iran and discussing the situation around a Joint action plan on Iran's nuclear program will be topic of discussion at the bilateral meeting of Vladimir Putin and Hassan Rouhani. It is noted that Russian investment in oil industry of Iran can reach $50 billion.
"The construction of NPP "Akkuyu", the delivery of s-400, the pipeline and the strengthening of cooperation in the security sphere in the context of the fact that Turkey is becoming more and more not American and Pro-Turkish" - notices Shabanov.
Russian orientalist believes that the overall economic, energy and trade projects can help resolve the contradictions that already exist within the Union. But we should not absolutize this factor. Though, because of the economy of these three States are quite different level of interest in joint economic projects is also different. Besides, in the economic relations of the Troika has already occurred ballast projects has declared, but not implemented. That, by itself, does not add optimism neither the negotiators or observers.
Some sources began to appear contradictory information that Russia, Iran and Turkey will try to close Syrian airspace for the U.S. air force and NATO.
Russian orientalist for this reason believes that the closure of airspace for the U.S. air force and coalition - not even funny. "Who's close would be if Israelis, regularly bombing targets Assad, can not close," added Pankratenko.
According to Shabanova members of the triple Alliance of different national interests. Two of them integrated into Western financial institutions, Turkey is a NATO member. Turkey in accordance with the Charter of the military Alliance - you will not be able to take the decision to limit NATO's actions in the region and in Syria in particular.
"Now comes the process of separation of Ukraine (federalization according to the Syrian Quartet three) each of the parties wants to form a new state system under its influence," - said Shabanov.
The expert believes that the main problem of these countries is not the problem of Syria, and the threats which brought about the collapse of the Western project and the creation of three semi-state entities.
"The triple Alliance is trying to consistently oppose the policy of the United States and the West, and especially against the draft greater middle East – which subsequently will these States", - concluded the analyst.
The material was prepared by Aziz of Pirimkulov
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