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Tehran miscalculated in relation to Beijing
Material posted: Pankratenko Igor N.Publication date: 14-06-2018
During the SCO summit in the Chinese Qingdao intriguing moments had enough, a list of printed questions, to which the observers would like to have the answers, confidently approaching ten pages. But the undisputed leader in this was held on 10 June, the meeting of Chinese President XI Jinping with President of Iran Hassan Rouhani. Especially the last, on the eve of his visit to China announced – no less – a new foreign policy strategy, Iran's "look East".

The Iranian President, is so hot. One stroke of the pen under the paper on the US withdrawal from the Agreement on Iran's nuclear program, Donald trump has stripped Hassan Rouhani's main argument, which he has used against his political opponents inside the country. Any criticism because of outright failures in the economy and social sphere of the presidential administration replied that it's temporary difficulties. The thing that made the signed the agreement, not even so – the AGREEMENT on the nuclear program, which Iran relieve from sanctions. So you only need to wait a bit – and everyone will be happy.

But it all went wrong as it seemed Rouhani and his team. A foreign company is scaling back its presence in the Iranian market, trump threatens Iran economic war, the "cool and efficient", and even Europe and depicts their opposition, but their Directors recognizes that to protect the business of its citizens in Iran from U.S. sanctions. Rouhani put it all on the lifting of sanctions – even though many Iranian officials tried to dissuade him from it, and now this rate was broken.

On Moscow as a sponsor and one of the guarantors of the Agreement on the nuclear program, and therefore as an ally in opposition to the new us sanctions Tehran don't expect it. Not too noticeable to a wider audience, but steadily Russian-Iranian relations for a variety of reasons is drifting towards the next cooling period. In the end, the saving grace for Rouhani, and by and large, and for the entire Iranian economy is only expanding cooperation with China. The same "look East", the recent call to which the Iranian President met with the warm approval in the circles of local, loyal to his political circles and the government media.

The reason for the proclamation of a new foreign policy was more successful. Beijing stated that it would be good to see the Iranian President as a member of the SCO summit. Politicians in Tehran very like to emphasize their independence. And unobtrusive at every opportunity to hint at some solid weight they have in the world, as eager to meet them by foreign leaders. From Rouhani, therefore, a great opportunity to speak in his characteristic manner: "It's not us that they are going to ask, it's because they want us as strategic partner." After winning applause of part of the Iranian establishment: "Here's how thin our Shaykh diplomacy spun," and to fly to Qingdao for a meeting with comrade XI. With a list of conditions under which Tehran is ready for a strategic partnership with Beijing.

And then began the main intrigue. Yes, on the one hand, China was the only country in the world, which during the period of "crippling sanctions" prior to the signing of the AGREEMENT, have not reduced, and more than doubled its trade with Iran – from 28 billion. in 2009 to nearly 48 billion in 2014. Of course, it was all, from a number of projects within the framework of UN sanctions, Beijing has refused. But on the other – the fact that the Chinese side all these years, in fact, "smeared" the us sanctions, Tehran is clearly not appreciated.

In fact, all of the claims of the Iranian establishment towards China manifested during the presidency of Rouhani, are reduced to one – Beijing has refused to grant Iran the status of "exclusive" partner. Serious conflict for him with the United States to stop economic cooperation with the same Saudis and Israel, that is, to sacrifice some of their own interests in favor of the Iranian side. Conversations that supposedly Tehran was "scared of the Chinese methods of doing business" that he was not satisfied with the underlined atheism and Communist slogans that he was dissatisfied with the activity of Beijing in Pakistani Baluchistan and Central Asia, is external. The essence of it is that Iranian leaders do not understand the principles of the foreign policy of the PRC, and hence claims, mistrust and alienation.

After the conclusion of the Agreement on the nuclear program, Rouhani stressed the administration gave priority not Chinese, and European companies. It was proclaimed the idea of creating their own "silk road", the long-suffering transport corridor "North–South", which in Beijing is not without reason regarded as a challenge to the concept of Chinese "Belt and road". Pointedly focused on the expansion of cooperation with new Delhi as the alternative of partnership with China, which naturally aroused the Chinese leadership Frank bewilderment.

In short, Rouhani and his team did the maximum possible to fly to Qingdao for a meeting with XI Jinping, and even with the list of conditions, Rouhani met there, to put it mildly, discreet welcome. The Iranian President talks with Chinese leader ended without concrete results and agreements that would suit the Iranians. Beijing was not ready to immediately become a lifeline for Tehran and immediately reciprocate Iran's "look East".

Of course, this diplomatic maneuver of comrade XI. Of course, Iran is very interesting to Beijing and it would be a real gem "Belt and road". But XI Jinping can afford to take the time to run into the arms of Iran. But Hassan Rouhani reserve no. And he now have to work hard to Beijing quickly agreed to support Iran in a difficult time.


Tags: Iran , assessment , China

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