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Gas deal Russia and China: implications for world order
Material posted: Publication date: 29-05-2014

May 21 "Gazprom" and "China national petroleum Corporation" (CNPC) concluded a gas agreement under which beginning in 2018, our country will supply to China of natural gas for over thirty years. As expected, the expert community of Russia and foreign countries is divided into two opposing camps. Given the fact that the declared amount of the contract is $ 400 billion, first declare loud and clear that the Kremlin was "working at a loss" selling resources "lowest price" (which, according to preliminary data, is 350$ per thousand m3), and the latter sung to President Vladimir Putin ode, predicting impending pole shift in world politics and Finance.

Even the British research community, usually restrained in assessing the actions of the Russian President, this time encouraged by the message on the signing of the contract. R. Wellings from the London Institute of economic Affairs (Institute of Economic Affairs) calls this event "the expression "monumental shift" in world trade and the transition to a multipolar world order"[1].

Which of these positions is adequate to reality? We will try to understand.

The annual volume of supplies under the contract, amounting to 38 billion m3, are impressive, but he doesn't "Gazprom" towards Asia, according to the press. For comparison: in 2013 "Gazprom export" provides consumers from Western Europe 161.5 billion m3 of gas. However, gas imports of China reached the level of Germany, which last year amounted to $ 40,18 billion m3.[2] the Gradual diversification of capacity of the Russian gas giant on the face. China is becoming an economic partner, Germany's equivalent.

Panic statements of the liberal press about "selling out" the country breaking on the harsh reality. The amount of the fees is supplemented by investment in the development of large gas fields of Kovykta and Chayanda, which confirmed the amount of recoverable resources is three trillion m3 of gas. Due to the fact that Russia, according to President Vladimir Putin, there will invest 55 billion dollars, and China is about 20 billion[3], we are actually receiving a large interest-free loan, which in Europe and America few people able to give us. Having developed these fields, nothing prevents Moscow to sign a supplementary agreement with Beijing, while reviewing it within cost parameters.

Besides "Gazprom" activity in the Asian sector shows and "Rosneft", which at the beginning of February, offers Indian "ONGC"[4] (Oil & Natural Gas Company) joint exploration of 10 offshore stations. During his visit to new Delhi (25 March), Igor Sechin urged Indians to become LNG buyers from the far East LNG project, which is scheduled in 2018-2019.[5]

From the point of view of strategy, Russia planetary solves two tasks:

1. maintains the pace of global economic growth; long-term contract with China, denominated in dollars, said the intention of both parties to stabilize the global financial and economic order, dollarocracy in nature; and despite many attacks from the engaged experts, increasing in the Wake of the financial crisis, V. Putin and S. Jinping Express understanding that the refusal of the two countries from dollar in mutual settlements will lead to a sharp drop in the U.S. currency, which, in turn, will provoke massive political chaos and hyperinflation. And under the rubble of the Empire of the dollar will be all Nations. I.e. the contract between Moscow and Beijing has a huge psychological importance for investors.

2. responds to global demographic trend, which takes the lion's share of energy demand from West to East; China and India turn into leaders of industrialization, which requires large-scale oil and gas supplies, as their need for hydrocarbons will double by 2020.

The state will turn to their advantage the changes in the global demand for energy, will be the most influential participant in world politics in the first half of the present century. The experience of America, received in 1945, control over oil supplies in Europe, speaks for itself. Russia has not only a chance to repeat this success, it is able to surpass him.

 


[1] Expert: gas deal with China - a shift to a multipolar world // http://ria.ru/economy/20140521/1008672694.html

[2] See: Dynamics of gas sales in Europe // http://www.gazpromexport.ru/statistics/

[3] In Shanghai concluded "the deal of the century": Russia and China signed a major gas contract // http://www.1tv.ru/news/polit/259328

[4] Since 2001, the year ONGC is a partner of "Rosneft" in the project "Sakhalin-1".

[5] Igor Sechin made a working visit to India // http://www.rosneft.ru/news/today/25032014.html

 

Sarkis Tsaturyan


Source: http://www.iarex.ru/articles/48190.html


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