Material posted: Publication date: 14-12-2019
The report analyses the current political situation in the Kyrgyz Republic, the prospects of the next "color revolution" during the parliamentary elections in 2020 and after, as well as potential threats to Russia in the case of destabilization of the political situation in Kyrgyzstan.
In early August, the Kyrgyz Republic was on the verge of a deep political crisis in connection with the removal of immunity and the arrest by force the former President Almazbek Atambayev. Estimates of experts vary from sympathy for the current or the former President of Kyrgyzstan. However, the fact that the peaceful transit of power was thwarted by the authorities, which their own hands created a quite strong opposition bloc in the face of the supporters of Atambaev to the future in 2020 parliamentary elections, gives grounds to say that Kyrgyzstan is rapidly maturing ground for the next revolution and political instability. Given the large number of active programs of USAID, the Soros Foundation, and a dozen other relevant organisations active in training civil society and megapole for the parliamentary elections, concluded that in 2020 will be the hot form of political struggle is obvious.
In 2017, the presidential elections were held in Kyrgyzstan, that became to some extent historical – there was a peaceful transfer of power from one President to another, from the representative of the North Almazbek Atambaev, a representative of the South Sooronbay Jeenbekov. Earlier, in 2016 Atambayev held a constitutional reform of the political system, under which Kyrgyzstan was to turn from a presidential-parliamentary Republic to parliamentary-presidential, with further transit towards a parliamentary Republic. The whole period of his reign, Atambayev has sought to maximize its Social democratic party of Kyrgyzstan, to clean and loosen any form of opposition, a political and informational field, almost sterile, nominated from the ranks of the social democratic party and his successor to the presidency in the face of Zheenbekov. Atambayev, in fact, has created all the conditions for Jeenbekov calmly continued his course of socio-political reforms, without spending time and effort to the political struggle. Probably Atambayev was hoping to finally create some balanced working political system, which put an end to cronyism and the revolutionary transition of presidential power. According to the new amendments had strengthened the position of Parliament and the Prime Minister, who is appointed by the Parliament, the Prime Minister forms the Cabinet by yourself. Was weakened the functions of the President in domestic policy. A number of experts agree that the way Atambayev was hoping as a sign of appreciation Jeenbekov prolobbirovat appointment Atambayev as Prime Minister after the parliamentary elections in 2020 or Atambayev will become the "grey Eminence", the governing social democratic party and the most influential party in Parliament, and thus can have a significant impact on the Parliament and the government. Supporters of Atambaev noted that all their Board Atambayev maximally sought to put an end to regional-clan rule in the country.
However, Atambayev miscalculated in the matter of his loyalty to the party members Sooronbay Zheenbekov, and in turn, Jeenbekov made a big strategic mistake created by his own hands of a strong opposition force in the face of Atambaev and his supporters before parliamentary elections in 2020. Atambayev's arrest and how the arrest occurred, has become a point of division of society along the axis "North-South".
Kyrgyz experts agree that the cause of the conflict between Jeenbekov and Atambayev lies in the plane of crony redistribution of spheres of influence and contradictions of the personal ambitions of the former and current President.
In the two years of his reign, Sooronbai Jeenbekov spent on strengthening own positions in the power and placement of relatives in key positions. The Kyrgyz Parliament has actually become controlled by his brother Asylbek Jeenbekov. The President dismissed, and then put Atambayev's supporters in the government, was reinstated as Deputy Chairman of the State customs service of Raimbek Matraimov, who was dismissed when Atambaeva for corruption at customs. Matraimov is one of the richest men in Kyrgyzstan, a representative of one of the most influential clans in Kyrgyzstan. Jeenbekov has split the social democratic party and forced her ranks of supporters of the state by the illegal re-registration of the party with Atambaev on an unknown Sagynbek Abdrakhmanova. Fully subordinated by the government to the office of the President, subdued power unit (courts, Prosecutor's office, interior Ministry, national security Committee), took control of state media. In fact Jeenbekov completely moved away from the parliamentary-presidential model and builds a super-presidential Republic. In addition Zheenbekov opponents sharply criticized him for the restoration of tribalism in government and service to his clan and clan Jeenbekov Matrimony.
Kyrgyzstan is still deeply clan-tribal society, which at all levels are deeply affected by corruption, especially in the political sphere. Political parties are funded, and in fact are controlled, the oligarchs, criminals, Arabs, Chinese, Turks, Islamist organizations. In addition, the society is deeply politicised, there is a wide representation of non-governmental organizations per capita, which have a significant influence on public opinion.
Already on the eve of presidential elections in Kyrgyzstan has intensified many an American donor-funds. Money is actively distributed among the local Kyrgyz NGOs through USAID, DFID – the British Department for international development, the Soros Foundation, which collaborates actively acting Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan Muhammedally Abylgaziev, operates the Coordinating Council of development partners in the Kyrgyz Republic
, which includes 22 of the donor.
The United States Agency for international development (USAID) will provide for the holding of parliamentary elections in 2020 in Kyrgyzstan $ 2.5 million.
Funds are allocated to local NGOs and activists under the following programs: monitoring of the electoral process, the candidates use the media and social networks. It is obvious that these instruments of influence on public consciousness will be used for agitation and increase the electoral base of the "right" candidates and to "discredit" unnecessary to see them in the Kyrgyz Parliament, the US does not want.
Interesting project to support the Parliament, voter education and election monitoring carried out in 2016-2019, in conjunction with the Central election Commission, the Parliament, several government and public institutions. The project includes the monitoring of local elections, a referendum in 2016 and the presidential election of 2017 "to enhance the transparency of the electoral process." Project Executive – public Association "Coalition for democracy and civil society" – controlled Parliament plenary session, meetings of committees, legislative drafting, compliance with legal procedures. In turn, the parallel vote tabulation allows you to challenge election results that may not suit the customer.
It is obvious that the US intends to influence the results of the parliamentary elections next year in order to hold to the Jogorku Kenesh (Supreme Council) of the Republic's Pro-Western parties and included in party lists their members.
Against this background, the prospect of another revolution in Kyrgyzstan in 2020 is becoming more apparent. Given the deteriorating socio-economic situation in the country, protests against mining companies against the foreign owners of companies, active in the fight sleaze Atambaev and Zheenbekov, the activation of the opposition, return and release from prison former enemies of the state, "the massacre" with the most active members and supporters of the social democratic party Atambaev, all combine to strongly polarizes the society even more and it politicizes and mobilizes. Formed two camps: the northerners-supporters of Atambaev and southerners-supporters Zheenbekov. In these circumstances, the question arises – does the contract with Jeenbekov foreign donors, and whom Pro-Western media and NGOs will support – or Zheenbekov Atambayev. If Jeenbekov will be able to agree that in the long term to squeeze Russian military base from the territory of Kyrgyzstan and the return of US military base, then all political resources in a period izbirateley campaign in Parliament 2020 will work on supporters Jeenbekov and against the state, if agreement fails, in this case, Kyrgyzstan will throw into turmoil and protests against the usurpation of power by the clan Jeenbekov.
In view of the above, it is possible to offer a number of recommendations for Russia. Analyzing the period of the reign of the state, which, in General, was Pro-Russian, and in 2017 Atambayev broke the contract with RusHydro for the construction of a hydroelectric power station, and then repeatedly spoke about the withdrawal of Russian bases from the territory of Kyrgyzstan, and also Kyrgyzstan anglesola, it can be argued that the political leaders of Kyrgyzstan are not reliable partners, and if they promise to invest in their economy more money under the condition of a rupture of relations with Russia, then they will do it. Destabilization of the political situation in Kyrgyzstan entails a number of threats to Russia – the growth of illegal migration, the rise of radical Islam and banned terrorist groups, as well as the growth of drug trafficking in our country. In this regard, it is possible to recommend to continue cooperation in the framework of existing agreements to enhance cooperation in combating terrorism and banned the radical Islamist organizations, as well as illegal drug trafficking and crime. With regard to investment projects in the region, for example, infrastructure that has taken place in this direction, given the unreliability of the Kyrgyz partners and the thorough corruption of all levels of government and business, in this direction it is better to refrain from initiatives.
 Coordinating Council of development partners in the Kyrgyz Republic. URL: http://www.donors.kg/ru/agentstva