In its glow and tragedy, the political changes that have affected the middle East, reminiscent of Europe of the mid-nineteenth century. Then (1848 – 1849) the unrest spread North and North-Eastern Mediterranean: France, Italian and German States, including Austria, in which he expressed the national aspirations of the Italians, Hungarians and Croatians and Romanians.
Modern developments, which absorbed the geographically southern and South-Eastern Mediterranean (Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Syria) look through the interdependence of larger: Europe Napoleon III had at their disposal only the Telegraph, and the people of the Middle East widely use the Internet, mobile telephony, radio and satellite TV.
However, it's not only about technology. At the beginning of the second decade of XXI century world order, created in the fields of Bretton woods, Yalta and Potsdam, has cracked; the global financial and economic crisis of 2008 shattered their former confidence in the dollar as an instrument of accumulation on a planetary scale, pumping and suffering for the peoples of the South inflation. Countries in the Middle East, more than the others change oil for dollars, the first to have felt these changes.
His Majesty the Suez canal
International policy recognizes only power and does not know emptiness. Once the power-the hegemon weakens and in his area of responsibility creates a vacuum, it is filled by another power or group of powers. Such a fate was prepared for Britain in two world wars that can be called "wars for English heritage". In century Hage, as if driven by an evil rock, follows the path of London. However, this time, the role of Germany, useruse British pride, an Egypt – the largest largest Arab state in the Middle East (85 million), exercising military control over the Suez canal, which accounts for about "10 % of the world's marine communications" (2).
But it will be after. In the meantime, look to the second half of the nineteenth century. Narrow water "a journey of a hundred miles long, dug through the Egyptian desert to link the Red sea with the Mediterranean", the Suez canal, built in 1869 by the French engineer G. F. de Lesseps, became, according to the Prince of Wales in "our highway to India", going in 1875, (with the support of the English branch of the Rothschilds) under the control of the British crown (1, P. 514).
Channel, convenient for businessmen and travellers, reduce travel time to India by half; the value of the canal was strategic, he was the main highway, the lifeline of Britain, connecting Britain with India and Southeast Asia. "Protection of Railways of India" formed the basis of British security strategy. English armed forces were permanently stationed in the area. The military significance of the canal was perfectly clear during the Second world war, when the British in El Alamein did everything to stop the German General Rommel, and not to let it continue (1).
In the world of geoeconomics, when control for transport artery actually means dominance not only over one state, but also on the group of countries, the Suez canal "has become a new role – the role the highway not of Empire, and for oil"; provided "a path for growing volumes of oil from the Persian Gulf to Europe, shortening the distance from Southampton around the Cape of Good Hope from 11 000 to 6500 miles" (1, P. 515).
This strategic factor is haunted by the British and the Americans in their mutual struggle for Egypt. The result of the struggle there is a "presidential mess". Dethroning Hosni Mubarak, the protege of "Muslim brotherhood" Mohamed Morsi is repeating the fate of his opponent 3 July 2013; further operates the army who A. Mansour. But the fight for the Suez canal does not stop. Radical Islamists taking up arms, provoking a reaction of the Supreme Council of the armed forces. All parties to the conflict realize that a new world order succeeding americanocentrism, will form the group of the Western establishment, which not only control the oil of the Middle East and affect the channels of delivery to the end consumer. No less, in Egypt a stake in the future of the three centres of power – the EU, Russia and China, is determined by the degree of their influence on world economic growth 2020-ies, the source of which remains oil.
It is obvious that the "Libyan scenario" in Egypt will not work: no one, including the U.S., will not dare to invade the territory of the state, a number comparable with Germany; even thirty million, Iraq has become a heavy burden for American great power. Therefore, Subversion will be made from the inside, by indirect action. In case of success of the Islamists on the Egyptian front, the capture of Syria, Iran and therefore the Strait of Hormuz, will be a matter of time. No need to be particularly astute to realize the scope of that power, which is the narrow Strait (40 % of global oil exports by sea).
Why the Third world will be fought in the middle East?
In the first half of the twentieth century, when financial flows were often confined to the classical area of the West, America and Europe, turning from Industrialists to bankers, held the overwhelming amount of capital in their capital the bins. This fact unleashed the flames of the world wars on Europe and the Soviet Union. But in Hhsite is different. We are heirs to a massive investment onslaught that was run by the decolonization and national liberation movements in Asia, Africa and Latin America. In search of more rent money, drawn by cheap labor and low taxes, has embarked on a risky voyage, saturating the markets of Middle East trading oil in American dollars.
In addition to strategic raw materials, great importance has control over the currency reserves of the region, which, in the hands of demagogues, can bring down the entire system of international Finance based on dollar. They need to announce the conversion of their dollar holdings into any other currency and then a world war will become a reality.
The results for Russia
The weakening of American power over the Middle East opens for Russia a unique opportunity. First, the rise in intra-state and inter-state conflicts in the Arab East will strengthen the desire of all post-Soviet countries to sign a Treaty with Moscow on new grounds. The arrogance of some leaders will sink into oblivion, and they again talk about the "glorious Soviet time", when all were protected from physical extermination. Secondly, our country being the largest producer of oil and gas, will assume the role of the United States during world war II, providing the allies with fuel that will allow us to determine not only regional, but also global agenda. Cooperation of "Rosneft" and "ExxonMobil" is the only training of this process. Third, increased dependence of the United Europe and China from Russian oil and gas transit.
The list of references
- Yergin D. Mining: world history fight for oil, money and power. – M.: "Alpina Publishers", 2011.
- The Suez canal 140 years: the legendary history of the nineteenth century http://ria.ru/society/20091117/194118343.html
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