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Modern revolution and forecasting capabilities. Theoretical substantiation of the model of "hourglass".
Material posted: Publication date: 24-09-2015
The article deals with the theoretical results of studies on the comparative analysis of the structural features of the revolutions of XX-XXI centuries. For the study and forecasting of future revolutionary peak, a model that has received the working title of "hourglass" and its methodological basis.

Hypotheses are woods,

Which erect before a building

Also take down, when the building is ready.

I.V.Goethe

The purpose of given article is the presentation of research model, validnoj for studying of a phenomenon of revolutions. On the basis of the given analytical tool probably to create quantitative base of statistics of revolutions, to study structural features of the mechanism of revolutions, to track evolution of the separate factor. The model is presented at the initial stage of creation and needs the further methodological development and the theoretical justification. Revolution - the phenomenon limited to a concrete time and spatial context, institutional forms of certain type of the society, therefore each revolutionary cycle is a unique phenomenon. Each revolution possesses own features, but dynamics and structural characteristics of the mechanism of action have typical stages of development of revolution. Revolutions are considered as inevitable peak of social changes. However modern revolutions, being political performances in which course protest political technologies eversorami [1] revolutions are used, possess new structural features.

Revolutions - the phenomenon which has been deeply built in a political reality of any society where the revolutionary cycle takes place. In view of that revolution provokes deep changes of all structures existing in a society, but it is the most obvious and vyrazhenno is shown in change of political elite and a political mode, political thinkers show special attention to questions on revolution and to its various aspects. Modern revolution - a phenomenon concerning young. Revolution practice was formed not only in a kind of sociopolitical changes, but also in compliance with sociopolitical thought on revolutions. Interest to the analysis of a phenomenon of revolutions developed in some stages: the first ideas understanding revolution in modern sense of a word, met in T.Gobbsa's works and J. Lock where revolution is used as a revolt synonym. In 1767 of A.Fergjuson in work «the Sketch of history of a civil society» uses the term in negative only konnotatsii as a recourse synonym. Last from large thinkers who used a word "revolution" in value «destruction of the state» - Konstanten François Shosbef in the book «Ruins or reflexions about the state». In a XVIII-th century David Jum (1711-1776) applies the term "revolution" in its modern value. The French revolution has generated idea of progress. Reasonings on multidimensionality of concept of the French revolution as political concept appear for the first time in A.Barnava's works. During ХIX centuries thinkers addressed to experience of the French revolution and English. K.Marksa's theory and the base pledged by it istoriosofskoj the traditions, had development in practical theories of revolutions of V.I.Lenina and A.Gramshi became a watershed of sociopolitical thought. At the same time the basis of sociology of the revolution, a studying phenomenon in a neutral kind is formed. The beginning of this tradition has been pledged by research «revolution Sociology» P.A.Sorokin.

J. Goldstoun in work «Towards a 4th generation of Revolutionary Theory» results conditional classification of generations of researchers. The first generation of researchers has pushed model of base interpretation of a phenomenon of revolution in which frameworks it was possible to allocate common features, characteristics, so-called "great" revolutions. English revolution - 1640, American - 1776, the French revolution - 1789, Russian - 1917. Revolution is considered as points bifurkatsii a history course. It is thought that revolution began to be considered as the fact, as djurkgejmovskaja "thing" without estimate konnotatsy. The second generation accents research search on development of models which underlined value of this or that pattern in a context of modernisation and rupture between requirements of the western society which have left forward a modernist style.

The third generation conducts researches under the slogan «Bringing the State back in», in the attention centre there is a type, the structure, revolution model is based on the state as an autonomous element of sotsio-political interaction. The model is built on the revolutionary conflict of elite and the states. The prominent representative of the given theory is Teda Skokpol. Skokpol suggests to divide social and political revolutions into two separate kinds.

The fourth generation which representatives the J concerns also. Goldstoun [2], study revolutions in Iran, "velvet" revolutions in East and the Central Europe, the state collapse in Africa, city and rural gerili in Latin America, nepatrimonialnye revolutions of the third world. Revolutionary actors are considered from the point of view of model of a rational choice and following conditions of revolution are resulted: it is fiscal crisis of the government as rupture between incomes of the state both those purposes and tasks which face it. Elite is divided, and there is a conflict as between elite and state machinery, and the intraelite conflict accompanied by growing instability of their elite positions and growth of competitive struggle for achievement of access to resources and the imperious status. The conflict of elite is accompanied by high potential of mass mobility of various groups which that generates distribution of general discontent, and the social configuration promoting elevating of general discontent. Those revolutions which «establish connection are successful only or form a coalition between national protest mobilisation and antiregime elements of the elite».

Revolution - the phenomenon limited temporalnymi to frameworks, but consequences of these events extend for long term and are estimated retrospektivno. Importance of a prediction and increase of adaptability of institutes and flexibility of mechanisms is staticized to warn revolutions. Each system has certain degree of defects which on the one hand lead to system destruction, on the other hand - its evolutions promote. N.Makiavelli in the book «From history of Florence» wrote:« Enduring continuous transformations all states usual from an orderliness condition pass to a disorder, and then from a disorder to a new order … ». Conditions which potentially exist behind a point of instability of system, do not predetermine the system future, and create a choice for system. The practical importance of the theory of revolutions is possibility of a prediction of revolutionary situations and change of internal, structural characteristics which can smooth revolutionary changes and reboot system to its disorder. Pressing question which faces the modern researchers, what system can be so viable to implement social innovations before level of a critical non-return? Thus, concepts of revolution and reform will receive qualitatively other sense.

Linear irreversible progress, as well as direct relationships of cause and effect are the basic myths of thinking of the Modernist style. However, as A.Einstein spoke, problems which we solve, are frequently unsoluble at that method of thinking, using which we them we formulate. A society, as well as any live formation including social subjects, possesses own dynamics of life and development. Forward evolution of a society occurs in oscillatory rhythms, its development nelinejno. However the History has laws in the development. Adequately to describe essence of the social phenomena and to build descriptive or look-ahead models, it is necessary to consider nonlinear and complex structure of a phenomenon which develops in compliance with numerous rhythms that assumes accounting, both global evolutionary cycles of a civilisation of mankind, and internal rhythms of phenomena. The data rhythmically developing phenomena, co-operating among themselves, being in institutional (social, economic, historical, political and other types of institutes), time measurements, form superdifficult systems with polyvariant possibilities of succession of events. It is natural that it complicates a task of construction of look-ahead and analytical models of a phenomenon, however, raises evristichnost theories and its practical importance. Complexity of model should not frighten the researcher and force to search for the simplified models that deforms understanding. The real society is deprived elegance of the theoretical and formalized mathematical models. Modelling is method of diagnostics of the social environment, a method for forming of a complete regular image which reflects intrinsic characteristics of a modelled reality. In modelling of a social phenomenon it is possible to use various languages and tools, and it is method of the description of a social reality.

Internal cycles of revolutions and the quiet periods of development of a society are integrated to cycles of a conjuncture of N.D.Kondratyev, the big evolutionary cycles and cycles of Zhjugljara. It is offered the internal structure of revolutions simulated on a basis to a funnel of causality which studying of stages is pledged by P.A.Sorokin's model, to lay in Kondratyev's cycles and cycles of Zhjugljara. In time measurement stages of typical revolutionary cycle HH and the XXI-st centuries that will allow to show visually structural features of various forms of revolutions will be considered.

For the analysis of internal structure of revolutions it is offered to create model on the basis of so-called to "a causality funnel» the Michigan researchers, used for studying of electoral process [3]. As earlier it was marked, revolution, as well as other social phenomena, is dynamical and mnogomerna, that is has an internal cycle of life. Sharp change in behaviour of system depends on background of process of interaction of set of previous factors. A point where all factors influencing creation of a revolutionary situation converge, the revolution culmination is. However then the revolutionary cycle enters postrevolutionary stages and the new funnel of causality in mirror reflexion, forming model of a sand-glass is formed. Model of a sand-glass where the event culmination is not the end and not the beginning, and the middle of previous and subsequent events. Revolution, as well as overwhelming part of difficult events, occurs as result of action of set of the previous reasons. The centre, in this case, the culmination of a revolutionary cycle, is top of hierarchy of co-operating, interdependent factors that corresponds to representations about a universe in the Chinese philosophy and other philosophical systems leaning against concept of recurrence of life. The central axis with which it is necessary to replace with cyclic function, symbolises time measurement. Complexity consists in providing all variables of one kotseptualnogo an order and character of connecting laws. As explains U.Listhaug, in model «causality funnels», except the time factor, are considered ekzogennnye factors relevant factors for an explanation, secondly, are used. Thus, the given model allows to consider mobile communication of the factors kept away and close to the culmination. There is a possibility of differentiation of objective and subjective factors, «importance of subjective variables increases about a mouth» [4]. And, at last, advantage of the given model in differentiation of political and not political variables. There are also serious restrictions of offered model. For example, many researchers mark excessive metaphoricalness of this tool, and also an insufficient inclusiveness of historical and institutional variables.

The revolution phenomenon is a sequence bifurkatsy. At achievement of critical values of parametres occurs bifurkatsija - the topological structure of a phase portrait changes. Qualitative research of the dynamic system depending on set of parametres, assumes the description of all possible in it bifurkatsy and set determination bifurkatsionnyh values of parametres. If in the course of change of system the variable approaches to bifurkatsionnomu to value or the system jumps on other step of development, or there is a new degree of balance. As the principle of Le Shatele says: «If on system there is any external influence the system finds forces to resist to it; in the course of this resistance there is an internal reorganisation of system - structural and functional» [5].

Cycles underlie dynamics of all live and lifeless nature. Cycles, fluctuations and waves are the intrinsic mechanism of evolutionary changes of difficult and superdifficult systems. During evolutionary development the system is differentiated and becomes complicated, in case of its degradation the system becomes more primitive. Revolutions are inevitable in cycles of development of societies as accumulating of preconditions and resources for transition to new level is performed in forward recurrence. The understanding of revolution based on structural model, enclosed in temporalnoe measurement, will give the chance to reconstruct system before passage of a point of a non-return. Each of approaches to modelling offers unilateral model of the phenomena whereas the analysis and a phenomenon partition under separate factors should be continued theoretical synthesis of the data. As P.A.Sorokin was expressed:« There is no possibility to deny partial correctness of deeply developed unilateral theories ». But it is necessary to consider that each attempt of synthesis met the requirements of the time when the answer to system crises of a society was necessary: the Marxism, cultural-tsivilizatsionnyj the approach in O.Spengler, A.DZH.Toynbee's treatment, the world-system F.Brodelja, I.Vallerstajna's approach were those. Issues of form« or - "or" become archaic [6], analytical dissociation lags behind a reality of social space. But quality of forecasting depends on depth of the developed theory, the model cannot be better than assumptions initially pledged in it, as it in certain degree the formalized interpretation of interpretations of the political validity. Time of qualitatively new synthesised complex theories has come.

The cycles changing history, are various on the duration and scale. The superlong cycle which is interesting to studying in the given work is a cycle of New time XIX-XX centuries In one evolutionary cycle holds two K-cycles, thus, one evolutionary cycle has a quadriphase structure. Predecessors of the theory of cycles of N.D.Kondratyev were J van Gelderen (1913), M.Ja.Bunjatjan (1915), S de Volf (1924).

Kondratyev's cycles have not only economic, but also political value. As N.D.Kondratyev marked:« … revolutions are the attending pushes, generating big waves of economic dynamics in what force of circumstances they occur. Social shocks join in rhythmic development of the big cycles and appear … the form of its display »[7]. Kondratevsky cycles are optimum on duration: 40-60 years, also possess high prognosticheskim potential. For a reference point it is possible to choose any of four phases of a complete K-cycle. One wave consists of two parts: upward and bearish. During an upward wave, the system accumulates resources for new jerk. In a bearish wave low business and economic activity dominates. Kondratyev's each cycle possesses the specificity owing to qualitative renovations of all structure. Change of technological ways, a paradigm techno-economic is closely connected with transformations of economic and sociopolitical institutes. Rapid growth of new production and as consequence, occurrence of new types of activity, raises activity of classes, social groups, creating, thus, preconditions for internal large revolutions. Therefore the long periods of increase of a conjuncture are integrated to radical political changes of a society. The upward wave of the K-cycle is connected with renovation and expansion of the basic blessings accumulated by the capital and introduction of technological investments. Accumulating process should proceed so that its curve went above, than a current curve of investment. Relative cheapness of the spare capital stimulates grandiose building and change of a landscape of social space that in turn, creates preconditions for change of internal structure. However the spare capital resource is ischerpaemym.

«In the nature of an upward wave the explanation of why inevitably there comes crisis lies and the bearish wave» [8] begins. Kondratyev's cycles give possibility of the analysis of development of integrated community of the states, interactions of the states among themselves and internal dynamics of the state. Accordingly, K-cycles give the chance to consider the various social phenomena, in particular, a phenomenon of revolutions, having adhered to concrete historical, but to a dynamical context, as K-cycle time not linearly. K-cycles do not give in to rigidly ordered formalisation, but it does not underestimate their look-ahead potential. L.E Grinin has created the concept of changes of principles of the production correlating with K-cycles that constitutes the evolutionary cycles which in turn are keeping within superlong waves [9]. The description of many structures of life of a political organism helps drawing up of the approached forecasts and increases possibility of a finding of the reasons.

Kondratevsky cycles differ on types:

  • Cycles of a boundary of centuries (1st cycle a game. XVIII-XIX centuries, 3rd cycle a game. XIX-XX centuries, 1980th of XX century);
  • Cycles of the middle of the century.

Or waves have a cycle some consecutive stages or phases. The cycle of a boundary of centuries begins with radical industrially-technological revolution, a phase of technological revolution: there are new technologies and new industries of mass production. This phase corresponds to an upward wave of the K-cycle. Terminators of last way start to interfere with growth of new industries of production, and there comes a phase of great shocks - the period of unstable economic growth, depression, serious crises which corresponds to a bearish wave kondratevskogo a cycle. Then the first type of cycles is transformed to the second type: the Cycle of the middle of the century. The first phase - world market revolution, is integrated to geopolitical and geoeconomic revolutions that creates essentially new conditions of distribution of new technological way and means of production. Technologies develop up to exhaustion of resources and accumulating of critical weight of defects of system then there comes the fourth phase (the V-phase of the second K-cycle) - a phase of structural crisis. Structural crisis mentions technological structures of a society and sociopolitical institutes which becomes a detonator of potential industrially-technological revolution of a new evolutionary cycle. Life cycle of one technological way constitutes about hundred - hundred twenty years that is two K-cycles [10]. F.Brodel's Same period names in "the structural time extent», «la longue durée» which also has duration in two kondratevskih a cycle [11]. In the following table which result V.I.Pantin and Century of Century Lapkin, cycles in a binding to historical development [12] at which analysis becomes obvious that there is a step reducing of duration of bearish waves in which course the future shifts are formed are shown. It means that K-cycles are measurement of a certain stage of evolution of a human civilisation, and is quite possible that step reducing leads to their disappearance or transition to qualitatively other level, potrebujushchy other tools of modelling and forecasting. K-waves is the specific mechanism connected with occurrence and expansion of industrial principles of production [13].

Цикл

Фаза эволюционного цикла

Примерная дата

Длительность

I.Британский; индустриально-колониальный

Структурный кризис

1753 – 1789

≈ 36 лет

Технологический переворот

1789 – 1813

≈ 24 лет

Великие потрясения

1813 – 1849

≈ 36 лет

Революция мирового рынка

1849 – 1873

≈ 24 лет

II.Американский, имперско-монополистический

Структурный кризис

1873 – 1897

≈ 24 лет

Технологический переворот

1897 – 1921

≈ 24 лет

Великие потрясения

1921 – 1945

≈ 24 лет

Революция мирового рынка

1945 – 1969

≈ 24 лет

III.Азиатский, транснациональный

Структурный кризис

1969 – 1981

≈ 12 лет

Технологический переворот

1981 – 2005

≈ 24 лет

Великие потрясения

2005 – 2017

≈ 12 лет

Революция мирового рынка

2017 – 2041

≈ 24 лет

In case of the modelling of the revolutions assumed in given work, interest represent II and III evolutionary cycles, since a phase 2 - technological revolution of II cycle ≈1890-1920, an upward wave 3 TS-K. The phase of technological revolution was accompanied by revolutions of 1917 in Russia, a number of the European revolutions, wreck of several empires, and also revolution of Gomindana and R.K.Ataturk's revolution, etc. (Tab. 1 See). Then there has come a phase of great shocks when the world has shaken a deep economic crisis «Great depression», minimum point a phase of great shocks has reached in 1933 when to the power A.Hitler has come. Development of the majority of the countries during this period was unstable. In the USA in 1929-32 has died about 5-9 million persons of hunger. In 1920 have begun forming essentially new types of modes - totalitarian militaristic modes in Europe and Asia. In a phase of great shocks there was a disintegration of all empires. There were scale processes of decolonization, the USA became the world policy centre, the USSR - protivotsentrom, counterbalancing it. The Third Reich of Germany and militaristic empire of Japan have been destroyed. In the following A-phase the European Union common market that was one of the main consequences of the Second World War, along with national-liberation movement of Third World countries has started to be formed. A wide circulation have received not only ideological konstrukty communism and tools of political strike of Leninism, but idea «the mass person», «a mass society», «mass consumption». The third evolutionary cycle can be designated as "Asian" or "transnational". In 1980th years prompt elevating of the Asian countries, such as South Korea, Iran, India, the Peoples Republic of China, KSA was designated. The tendency to re-structuring of the centre of World-system and displacement to semiperiphery, trans-nationalisation of forms of the capital is observed.

Along with traditional actors of a world policy, there are the actors typical for globalisation - the transnational companies and transnational banks. The phase of structural crisis is necessary on a bearish wave 4 TS-K, during the same period there is an exhaustion of resources of dominating technological way resurso - and power-intensive industries. The phase of technological revolution is necessary for 1980-2005 gain distribution of information technology, microelectronics, telecommunications that is integrated to a sharp aggravation of an economic-political situation: disintegration of the USSR, Yugoslavia, a wave of velvet revolutions, of some unsuccessful peace-making operations of the United Nations. The phase of great shocks ≈2005-2040 which is similar FVP 1914/21-1947 assumes aggravation of a global financial economic crisis that provokes expectation of "the Big war» and toughening of political modes, including in developed countries. The lowest critical point of a phase of great shocks also is marked by political events.

K-waves can is high-grade to be implemented only through medium-term cycles (cycles of Zhjugljara) as it fills waves with the structural maintenance. K.Zhjugljar was one of the first who has proved that crises are immanent to industrial economy or as he named «the law of periodicity of crises» is inevitable. Growth creates structural pressure in a society and economy, provoking system disproportions of development, whereas efforts of a society do not suffice in due time to meet crisis. Grinin L.E and Korotaev A.V. result the following variant of a ratio of K-waves and J-waves [14] (Tab. 2 See). Researchers consider that J-cycles are the structural unit describing the K-waves which in aggregate create K-waves. Klastery J-cycles it is rather easy to count and besides, borders of phases of K-waves and J-cycles actually coincide. The ratio between extreme values of duration of K-waves and J-cycles is very close: 7:11≈0,64 ≡ 40:60≈0,66. On upward A-phases (as has established still N.D.Kondratyev) J-cycles are characterised by more expressed elevatings and smaller duration, depressions are less expressed, elevatings are more long. On bearish V-phases of K-waves of depression of J-cycles are expressed more intensively.

Table 2: a ratio of K-waves and J - cycles. 1 variant

№ К-цикла
Фазы К-волн и датировки
Порядковые номера и датировки J-циклов
Число J-циклов на К-волне
I
B-нисходящая (1817-1847 гг.)
J1: 1817-1825
3
J2: 1825-1836/7
J3: 1836/7-1847
II
А-восходящая  (1847-1873 гг.)
J4: 1847-1857
3
J5: 1857-1866
J6: 1866-1873
B-нисходящая (1873-1890/3 гг.)
J7: 1873-1882
2
J8: 1882-1890/3
III
А-восходящая (1890-1929/33 гг.)
J9: 1890/3-1900/3
4
J10: 1900/3-1907
J11: 1907-1920
J12: 1920-1929/33
В-нисходящая (1929/33-1948/9 гг.)

J13: 1929/33-1937/8

2

J14: 1937/8-1948/9

IV

А-восходящая (1948/9-1974/5 гг.)

J15: 1948/9-1957/8

3

J16: 1957/8-1966/7

J17: 1966/7-1974/5

В-нисходящая (1974/5-1990/3 гг.)

J18:1974/5-1979/82

2

J19: 1979/82-1990/3

V

А-восходящая (1990/3-2008/10 гг.)

J20: 1990/3-2001/2

2

J21: 2001/2-2008/10

 

№ К-цикла

Фазы К-волн и датировки

Порядковые номера и датировки J-циклов

Число J-циклов на К-волне

I

B-нисходящая (1817-1847 гг.)

J1: 1817-1825

3

J2: 1825-1836/7

 

J3: 1836/7-1847

 

II

А-восходящая  (1847-1873 гг.)

J4: 1847-1857

3

J5: 1857-1866

 

J6: 1866-1873

 

B-нисходящая (1873-1890/3 гг.)

J7: 1873-1882

2

J8: 1882-1890/3

 

III

А-восходящая (1890-1929/33 гг.)

J9: 1890/3-1900/3

4

J10: 1900/3-1907

 

J11: 1907-1920

 

J12: 1920-1929/33

 

В-нисходящая (1929/33-1948/9 гг.)

J13: 1929/33-1937/8

2

J14: 1937/8-1948/9

 

IV

А-восходящая (1948/9-1974/5 гг.)

J15: 1948/9-1957/8

3

J16: 1957/8-1966/7

 

В-нисходящая (1974/5-1990/3 гг.)

J17: 1966/7-1974/5

 

J18:1974/5-1979/82

2

А-восходящая (1990/3-2008/10 гг.)

J19: 1979/82-1990/3

 

V

J20: 1990/3-2001/2

2

J21: 2001/2-2008/10

 

 

The given model is the attempt of analytical synthesis uniting positions of theories of different level (as macrotheories, microtheories and theories of the average level depending on a research problematics) that gives the chance interdisciplinary researches. This tool has interdisciplinary methodological character, and can be used in researches of a various orientation, also it is possible to add it with other explanatory models, without breaking thus internal architecture. The model allows to consider various factors on scale: global, such as time, space, tsivilizatsionnye features in which frameworks there is a revolution, cyclic evoljutsionnost societies of different extent: superlong cycles, K-cycles, J-cycles; specific factors from which interference there is a revolution structure. In model change of a kit of researched parametres is possible. On the other hand, the model is dynamical and mnogomerna, the internal cycle of revolution that gives the chance for concrete historical application and measurement is considered. Each stage can be researched separately as well as the centre of funnel В1, however finally, all factors should be relevant difficult hierarchy of the mechanism. The polycausality of a phenomenon that gives the chance to refuse the relationships of cause and effect limiting imagination dictated by logic of thinking of the Modernist style is accepted. From the reason the reason, and v-whole follows, aspires to infinity. The analysis of character of communications between separate factors is especially important.

However the reasons have qualitatively different character that gives the chance to specify the symbolical centre, the culmination ts. The model is abstract enough that will allow to use it for studying of various forms and types of revolutions: both the XX-th centuries, and the XXI-st centuries, east type of revolutions, and western and as it is represented, any others. In model the look-ahead potential is pledged: revolution occurs as qualitatively new transformation of the system which have saved up the critical sum of defects. Revolutions (it is necessary to underline once again ideologically neutral context of the given work and the term use, which explanation has been undertaken above) as a phenomenon show its adaptable possibilities in qualitatively new, it is permanent the changing conditions generated by the system. The purpose - to avoid till now inevitable peaks of social changes the payment for which happens too high. The question consists in understanding at what stage and in what sequence it is necessary to reboot the system, what social and other innovations are necessary for implementing, that defects of system turned to its potential resource.

Cyclic curves are shown conditionally and specification demand during mathematical modelling. The curve And should show internal dynamics of revolutionary process. The curve - shows 1 phase of the big Evolutionary cycle, a quadriphase K-cycle which consists of medium-term J-cycles. ts - the revolution culmination shows so-called «the true moment» to revolution in which course there is a change of ruling grouping, destruction of a ruling mode, deep initial transformations. The point ts provokes occurrence of set of new factors. Influence of the revolutionary culmination gradually accrues from a funnel mouth to its expansion, also as well as an involvement of the factors provoked by the culmination of revolution. В1, В2 - show a spectrum of the factors leading to event. The similar structure will allow to show interaction and interdependence of factors, their qualitative change at each stage of revolution that leads to change of the internal mechanism. Advantage of the given model consists that it probably to use for any type of revolution, both for east type, and for western, both for XX-th century revolutions, and for revolutions ХХI, changing a kit of the parametres which are subject to studying. The main problem there is an allocation of dimension of a step to each revolutionary cycle and their correlation to cycles of Zhjugljara and kondratevskimi cycles.

The list of the used sources:

  1. «World dynamics: laws, tendencies, prospects»/otv. red. A.A.Akaev, A.V.Korotayev, S.J.Malkov, G.G.Malinetsky. Izd. 2. - M: the Book house "Librokom", 2014;
  2. «The theory and methods in a modern political science: the First attempt of theoretical synthesis» / under the editorship of S.U.Larsen; [the lane from English E.A.Zhukovoj]. - M: ROSSPEN.;
  3. Braudel F. «La longue durée». Débats et Combats.
  4. Glazev S.J. «the Theory of long-term technical and economic development». M: 1993;
  5. Grinin L.E., Korotaev A.V. «Cycles, crises, traps of modern World-system: Research kondratevskih, zhjugljarovskih and century cycles, maltuzianskih and postmaltuzianskih traps»./Отв. red. S.J.Malkov. M: the Book house "Librokom", 2012;
  6. Kondratev N.D. «the Big cycles of a conjuncture and the prediction theory». The selected works//N.D.Kondratyev, the International fund N.D. Kondratyev, etc. Red. A call.: Abalkin L.I. (before.), etc., sost. Jakovets J.V. - M: Joint-Stock Company Publishing house "Economy", 2002;
  7. Kulpin E.S. «Bifurkatsija the West-east: entering in sotsioestestvennuju history». M, 1996;
  8. Moskalev I.E. «Modelling of social processes: the uchebno-methodical benefit/i.e. moskalev. - M: Publishing house RAGS, 2010.;
  9. Ozhiganov E.N. «Modelling and the analysis of political processes: the Education guidance». M: RUDN, 2009;
  10. Pantin V. I, Lapkin V. V «Historical forecasting in XXI century: Kondratyev's Cycles, evolutionary cycles and prospects of world development» / V.I.Pantin, V.V.Lapkin. - Dubna: the Phoenix, 2014;
  11. Plotinskij J.M. «Mathematical modelling of dynamics of social processes» - M: Moscow State University Publishing house, 1992.;

[1] Eversor - the term entered by Gapichem A.E., Lushnikovym D.A. in the monography «Technologies of colour revolutions: the monography» - M: RIOR 2014. With. 45. It is applied to a designation of new type of revolutionaries, the political strategists staging revolutions for overthrow objectionable customer of modes

[2] Goldstoun of J. «To the theory of revolution of the fourth generation» https://www.ruthenia.ru/logos/number/56/06.pdf With. 60

[3] «the Theory and methods in a modern political science: the First attempt of theoretical synthesis» / under the editorship of S.U.Larsen; [the lane from English E.A.Zhukovoj]. - M: ROSSPEN. With. 165

[4] Under the editorship of Larsen of Item U «the Theory and methods in a modern political science. The first attempt of theoretical synthesis». - M: ROSSPEN, 2009. With. 167.

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[8] Grinin L.E., Korotaev A.V. «Cycles, crises, traps of modern World-system: Research kondratevskih, zhjugljarovskih and century cycles, maltuzianskih and postmaltuzianskih traps»./Отв. red. S.J.Malkov. M: the Book house "Librokom", 2012 - With. 3-125

[9] «World dynamics: laws, tendencies, prospects»/otv. red. A.A.Akaev, A.V.Korotayev, S.J.Malkov, G.G.Malinetsky. Izd. 2. - M: the Book house "Librokom", 2014. С.291-348

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[12] Pantin V. I, Lapkin V. V «Historical forecasting in XXI century: Kondratyev's Cycles, evolutionary cycles and prospects of world development» / V.I.Pantin, V.V.Lapkin. - Dubna: the Phoenix, 2014. With. 298

[13] «World dynamics: laws, tendencies, prospects»/otv. red. A.A.Akaev, A.V.Korotayev, S.J.Malkov, G.G.Malinetsky. Izd. 2. - M: the Book house "Librokom", 2014. With. 306

[14] Grinin L.E., Korotaev A.V. «Cycles, crises, traps of modern World-system: Research kondratevskih, zhjugljarovskih and century cycles, maltuzianskih and postmaltuzianskih traps»./Отв. red. S.J.Malkov. M: the Book house "Librokom", 2012 - С.91

 

The author: Baranova Anastas


RELATED MATERIALS: Politics and Geopolitics