Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Politics and Geopolitics / Present and future of Europe / Articles
Brakcet and the future of Europe
Material posted: Publication date: 06-07-2016
New York — From my point of view, the UK had the best agreement with the European Union, since it became a member of the common market, while retaining our national currency and being able to achieve a number of other concessions in implementation of the requirements of the European Union. However, it was not enough to ensure that the electorate of the United Kingdom voted for the preservation of the country in the European Union. Why?

The answer to this question can be found in the results of public opinion polls, regularly carried out for several months before a referendum on Brexia. European immigration crisis and debate concerning Breccia fueled each other. Supporters of the country's withdrawal from the European Union used the deterioration of the situation of refugees — her main symbol became images of thousands of refugees gathered in Calais and desperate to get to Britain by any means possible to scare the "uncontrollable" inflow of immigrants from other member countries of the European Union. And European authorities postponed the time of decision-making concerning migration policy in order to avoid their negative impact on the results of a British referendum, and thus, firmly established in the minds of people, scenes of chaos, like the chaos in Calais.

The decision of German Chancellor Angela Merkel to open the country's doors to refugees has become quite an impressive gesture, but it was not until the end of thought, because it was not considered a pull factor. The sudden influx of refugees has ruined their way of life of people across the EU.

Moreover, the lack of adequate control measures have provoked panic, which affected all: the local population, the authorities responsible for public safety, and refugees themselves. It has also created favorable conditions for the rapid rise of the xenophobic and anti-European parties such as UKIP in the United Kingdom, which led the campaign for the country's withdrawal from the EU as national governments and European institutions proved unable to cope with the crisis.

Now a catastrophic scenario, which many feared materialized, making the breakup of the EU is virtually irreversible. Eventually the UK may be relatively better without the EU, but it could be worse, but its the economy and people will have to deal with serious difficulties in the short and medium term. Immediately after the vote, the pound sterling fell to its lowest level in 30 years, and volatility of the financial markets around the world, likely to persist, while will be a long and complicated process of negotiations on political and economic "divorce" with the EU. The consequences of withdrawal for the real economy can be compared only with the financial crisis of 2007-2008.

Undoubtedly, this process is fraught with greater instability and political risk, because at stake is not only some real or imaginary benefit to the UK, but the very existence of the European project. Breaksit will open the floodgates for anti-European forces in other EU countries. As soon as it was announced the results of the referendum in the United Kingdom, the French party "national front" called "Mexico", and the Dutch populist Geert Wilders (Geert Wilders) called for "Nexo".

Moreover, the United Kingdom also may not survive Brakcet. Scotland, where the majority of voters voted to remain part of the European Union, may again attempt to gain independence, some officials in Northern Ireland, which is also by a majority of votes supported the campaign "to Remain", has already made calls for reunification with Ireland.

The response of the EU to Pexit also can result in serious errors on the part of European officials. In their desire to keep other members from trying to leave the Union, European leaders may not offer the United Kingdom such conditions — particularly with regard to access to the single market of the European Union — which would help to mitigate the negative consequences of rupture. Since the European Union accounts for half of the turnover of the UK, the consequences of divorce for British exporters can be devastating (in spite of a more competitive exchange rate). And given the fact that in the next few years, financial institutions will transfer their operations and employees in the Eurozone, the city of London (and the London property market) also face serious difficulties.

But the consequences for Europe could be much worse. Friction between members of the European Union reached an extreme point, not only because of the refugee situation, but also by a remarkable tension between creditors and States the debtors in the Euro zone. In the meantime, the feeble, the leaders of France and Germany focused only on domestic issues. The fall of the stock market in Italy by 10% immediately after the announcement of results of the referendum clearly demonstrated the vulnerability of this country in the face of large-scale banking crisis — which could bring to power a "five star Movement" in the next year.

Current events have a negative impact on the programme for the reform of the Eurozone, which was to include the establishment of a direct banking Union, a limited fiscal Union and more effective mechanisms of democratic accountability. And time is not on the side of Europe, because the pressure from such countries as Turkey and Russia — who are trying to use the discord to their advantage — only exacerbate the political problems within the EU.

In such a situation we find ourselves today. All European countries, including the UK, would suffer from the loss of the common market and the loss of common values which the European Union was supposed to protect. However, the EU did fail and ceased to satisfy the needs and aspirations of its citizens. Now it is moving toward chaotic disintegration, which will put Europe in a more difficult position compared to what it could be if the EU never existed.

But we must not give up. Undoubtedly, the European Union is a flawed structure. After Breccia all who believe in the values and principles that the European Union was intended to support, must unite in order to save it through reconstruction. I am convinced that when in the coming weeks and months, people will see first hand the consequences of Brexia, our ranks will grow steadily.

George Soros


Source: http://inosmi.ru/politic/20160626/236981831.html

 

Tags: Europe , UK


RELATED MATERIALS: Politics and Geopolitics
Возрастное ограничение