Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Politics and Geopolitics / Present and future of Europe / Articles
Breaksit will not stop globalization
Material posted: Publication date: 21-07-2016
Outside of the West trade relations will grow stronger and deepen.

is that globalization — that irresistible force that inevitably and inexorably makes the Earth is flat — he goes into retreat. The pace of trade growth has not reached pre-crisis level of 2008. Donald trump during his election campaign hard at exploiting the fear of free trade and immigration. Economic problems of the United States, " he announced in his speech of June, "are the result of management actions, which admires the globalization and refuses Americanism". And then there was Brakcet, which has become the worst setback for the European Union — the most ambitious experiment in globalization. Financier bill gross (Bill Gross) said that Brakcet marks "the end of globalization as we know it".

In a sense, gross is right. The rich West has launched a globalization project, based on the fact that linked together by ties of trade, money and culture of the country is unlikely to destroy each other. But now Americans and Europeans, who consider themselves victims caused by the globalization of major change, I want to deploy it backwards. About isolationism today talked about as independence.

But those who consider globalization of the deceased, to misunderstand what is happening. Yes, pockets of resistance exist, however, a significant part of our world strengthens ties between countries, companies and societies. Globalization is not in retreat, it deepens and expands — like it or not, angry supporters of trump and voted for Pexit British voters.

This new and perhaps even more exciting phase of globalization is a serious challenge to the political leaders, especially in the US and Europe. When suffering from unemployment and lack of income growth, the working class opposes the free movement of money, goods and people, it's elected politicians are faced with strong pressure and requirements to secede from an increasingly interconnected world. But in doing so, they can give their non-Western competitors, those potential benefits, that create these new connections. The fate of entire countries and peoples can depend on, they would support globalization or not.

So it has been for decades. The first round of globalization in General was moving from the West to all the rest. When stimulated by the global economic system under U.S. leadership, an open exchange of new technologies created the conditions for doing business on an international scale, Finance and the factories began to move from the richest countries to the poorest. Along with them came the Western doctrine from capitalism to Protestantism) and Western culture (from McDonald's to Mickey mouse). Those countries that took advantage of new benefits (China, Japan, South Korea and of course the United States) have gathered a rich harvest. In developing countries on an unprecedented scale decreased poverty, and the advanced countries has further increased economic efficiency. And those countries that did not participate in these processes (Russia, the main part of the Middle East and Africa), still trying to recover lost ground.

The success of the first phase of globalization has spawned the second phase, which is moving in all directions. Emerging economies are strengthening ties among themselves, while China, India and other countries increase their wealth, enhance your credibility and become more self-confident. According to the world trade organization, in 2014, 52% of exports from developing countries went into other developing countries. In 1995, the figure was 38%. The volume of trade between China and India in 1997 was 1.7 billion dollars. By 2014 it increased many times — up to 72 billion. In just four years, the total volume of trade between India and Africa has increased by more than 60 per cent in the 2014-2015 financial year, almost $ 48 billion.


Most of the world continues to support free trade, although trump makes fun of the North American free trade agreement NAFTA, calling it a disaster, but because of Brexia the second largest economy of Europe is separated from the integrated market of the continent. China insists on the creation of a pan-Asian free trade zone; consists of 10 members of the Association of South-East Asia forms the common market; and African countries have begun negotiations on opening the continental free trade area.

Today, globalization involves those countries that had stood aside. Manufacturers of fabrics and garments from Bangladesh, China and Turkey last year invested $ 2.2 billion in Ethiopia to open a factory that will export to USA and Europe. Philippines, has long manifested lethargy and sluggishness in the region with its closely related economies, have become major hub for call centers.

To support these trends create new institutions. In June, the Asian infrastructure investment Bank, created in the image and likeness of the world Bank with the support of China, approved the first four loans totaling $ 509 million, intended for projects in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Tajikistan. Two months earlier, established by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa the New development Bank with headquarters in Shanghai announced the first allocation of credits. The total amount of 811 million dollars, and these funds will go to renewable energy projects in the BRICS countries except Russia.

Companies from developing countries are also becoming increasingly important investors. According to the American enterprise Institute (American Enterprise Institute), Chinese companies in 2015 invested worldwide, $ 111 billion, that is, 10 times more than in 2005. The total amount of foreign investment by Indian companies in 2015 amounted to 139 billion dollars, and this 43 percent growth in five years. The figure for India is higher than the amount of foreign investments in India. During a June visit to China, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the two countries jointly carry out investment projects worth $ 50 billion.

The growing antipathy towards immigrants was also not able to keep people at home. According to world Bank estimates, last year the number of migrants in the world increased to a record 251 million. In 2013, over 38% of these migrants moved from one developing country to another, and in economically developed countries 34%.

Of course, the new wave of globalization might face with their own failures type Breccia. Trade among developing economies were not spared by the global slowdown. According to WTO estimates, the export growth among developing economies in 2014 was reduced to 1.3%, while four years earlier it was about 33%. In some cases, relationships between countries growing less than it seems. Despite the friendship at a high level between China and Russia, due to the strong mutual distrust many of their promises on cooperation and remained promises. And those politicians and leaders who set out to expand globalization into reverse, can impede the progress of all. Protectionism trump if implemented may cause a response that will hinder global growth. In Europe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel speaks rather harshly about Brexia, saying he would not allow Britain to be choosy in selecting what she wants and what it wants from EU membership. The forthcoming exit of the country from the EU could slow down growth not only in Europe but throughout the world.

However, the enemies of globalization will not be able to stop her. In too many countries who see their future as part of something bigger. India has long been doubt, not wanting to participate in globalization. But after the liberalization in June, investment rules, the office of the Prime Minister Narendra modi announced that India has "the most open economy in the world for foreign direct investment." In neighbouring Myanmar's military rulers have agreed to democratic reforms, realizing that their poor country should no longer remain in isolation. They hope to benefit from those opportunities, which gives the new phase of globalization — from new sources of growth, Finance and profits from new sources of information and innovation, from new employers and consumers, as well as from ideas that sprouts in the emerging new global culture.

Those who say that their problems are to blame globalization, I believe that it is better to observe what is happening. Trump and his supporters believes that raising the walls in the literal and figurative sense, they will protect American jobs and businesses from unfair global economy. However, preliminary data indicate that just the opposite. The sharp fall in the pound after Breccia a measure of confidence of investors that Britain is outside the integrated Europe will be less competitive than in its composition. Bankers and politicians in Paris and Frankfurt, full of desire to take Brexton to give London a significant part of financial business.

Instead of pandering to the forces of isolationism, it is better for politicians to directly tackle their very real problems. Moving from free trade workers need more intensive preparation for your new job. Higher education should become cheaper, and vocational education more affordable. If you give workers more authority in matters of corporate governance, there will be more justice in income distribution, that globalization gives to big business. As Land becomes increasingly flat, opponents of these inevitable and unavoidable changes must be mindful of the benefits of globalization.

Michael Schuman Michael Schuman)


Tags: Europe , UK

RELATED MATERIALS: Politics and Geopolitics
Возрастное ограничение