With the beginning of the Arab spring, particularly the Syrian conflict in 2011, a huge mass of people went to Europe, and if the difference between the number of refugees and migrants in 2010 and 2011, is not so great, in the future it is growing steadily, reaching its peak in 2015 (see histogram).
A similar number of asylum applications Europe has not seen since 1992, According to Eurostat (Eurostat) as of September 2016 in Europe came about 1 million people. It should be noted that, despite the agreement of the EU with Turkey on controlling the flow of refugees and migrants within the Turkish border and partial closing of the borders of Greece and Italy, in Europe penetrate hundreds of thousands of asylum-seekers. From this we can conclude that by the end of this year the number of arrivals would be about the same as last year, if the situation in the middle East is a dramatic change for the worse.
The main flow of refugees and migrants coming from Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq (as of 2015, 378, 193, and 127 thousand people respectively), as well as from troubled African countries (Nigeria, Eritrea, Somalia, Sudan, Guinea, etc.). Their penetration in Europe takes place on 4 main routes (see Fig.):
1) the Western Mediterranean. This path is sent migrants from North Africa to the Iberian Peninsula. Their ultimate goal is to Spain, France and Italy;
2) Eastern Mediterranean. Migrants and refugees from Egypt and Middle East countries come to Greece by sea via Cyprus and overland through Turkey and Bulgaria;
3) the Central Mediterranean. Flow is directed from the North and East (Somalia, Ethiopia) Africa through Libya towards Italy and Malta;
4) Through the Eastern border of the EU. Penetration in Europe is through the EU border with the former republics of the USSR.
Now, however, the settlers learned of the existence of another route to Europe through Russia. Migrants learn a new way to Finland and Norway through Murmansk oblast. This route takes 3 days and costs only$ 2500, much cheaper than through the Mediterranean sea, Italy and Greece.
But we should not forget that there are other flows of migrants composed of Europeans. They are formed by citizens of the republics of the former Yugoslavia, the Baltic States and Eastern Europe, therefore, when determining the total number of immigrants to be dismissed.
Destinations of refugees and migrants are Sweden, Hungary, Austria, France, but the leading position holds that Germany, which has a rather lenient immigration policy ("Willkommenspolitik") and high social benefits that give the opportunity not to work, but to enjoy all the benefits.
As for the age criterion, in Europe run mostly husbandranks (72%), the vast majority of which range in age from 18 to 34 years. The proportion of children accounts for about 15%, women 13% age 18 to 50 years.
The confessional basis for those seeking asylum in Europe is Islam. This can be judged on the basis of data on the religious affiliation of refugees and migrants in Germany in 2015, as this country took their largest number (442 thousand). Almost 75% of visitors to Germany are Muslims, 14% – Christian 10% – other religions.
Rocked Europe's migration crisis – unprecedented by the standards of modern European history, which complicates the forecasting and study. This crisis, as well as ineffective actions on the part of the member countries of the EU and the inaction of the Brussels bureaucracy has led to a number of negative consequences.
In the first place has been severely undermined the unity of Europe. Began the process of disintegration, as evidenced by Brexit, where 52% of those who took part in the referendum in June 2016 (with a turnout of 72%) voted to secede the United Kingdom from the Union. The catalyst of this process was in many ways the situation of migrants and refugees, which Britain had to accept under the Dublin agreement.
Secondly, decisions on the issue of refugees and migrants are not approved by the overwhelming majority of the population (see histogram), which may indicate the growth of protest potential among the European population. Increasingly rallies against refugees in all EU countries.
Then we can talk about big financial expenses for the maintenance of refugees. For example, in 2016 in Germany was allocated 6 billion euros for refugees, and the total maintenance costs in the current year will amount to about 10 billion euros (a quarter of the annual military budget of Germany), which is 4 times more than the similar indicator in 2014 (2.4 billion euros). When Germany hosted the record number of refugees, it is expected that the inflow of migrants will increase the stability and strength of the German economy. However, the funds spent on the workers, not kompensiruet in fact, since the economic benefit from such cheap labor is very insignificant on the background caused by the refugee problem. In practice, it is beneficial to only a few representatives of major European and in particular German business.
The current immigration policy of the largest countries in the EU not only leads to social tensions, and increasing crime rates. Many refugees accused of theft, causing bodily harm, crimes of a sexual nature. The network has a large number of videos showing attacks on refugee women and the elderly. In the past new years eve riots in the German cities (Berlin, Cologne, Hamburg, Stuttgart, Frankfurt-on-main) are proof of that.
Of course, one of the major problems related to continuous and poorly controlled flow of migrants – is the growth of the terrorist threat. The widespread belief that migrants along with the penetration of terrorists and recruiters, not without reason, because more than 50% – are young men from conflict areas, which already arrived in Europe to join the ranks of fighters that make up the so-called "sleeper cells" whose members were born in Europe or have long been living on its territory. After that, their possible activation, for example, at the command DAIS (banned in Russia) for terrorist attacks in the future, when there will come any moment. Terrorist acts in France, Belgium, Germany are proof of that.
There is one serious danger, which is often silent. We are talking about the different kinds of epidemics. Total medical examination of the huge flow of migrants at the borders is technically impossible. Usually hospitals send people with obvious signs of disease.
Diphtheria, measles, tuberculosis, AIDS, HIV is not a complete list of diseases that are themselves refugees. According to the world health organization in 2014, migrants from different regions are expected polio, tropical malaria, cholera (from Afghanistan), yellow fever, meningococcal disease (from Ethiopia), leishmaniasis, leprosy (from Syria), etc. 
Speaking about specific cases, we can mention mass infection of measles in some shelters in Germany in September 2014. The disease began with a high speed to spread among the local population, mainly among adults.
Doctors are sounding the alarm and urging everyone to be careful and follow all the necessary steps to prevent infection. The main recommendation is "stay away from potential sources of infection, that is, from shelters for refugees".
Thus, we can say that the EU has no clear strategy for ensuring internal security and controlling the spread of extremist views, and European intelligence agencies do not have sufficient required information to effectively counter and parry threats.
Europe is trying to resolve the crisis in the following ways. First, it is the erection of protective walls, often with barbed wire, as well as the outfits of the police to prevent illegal border crossing. Some countries have closed their borders (Macedonia, Slovenia) and Croatia, for example, has imposed a ban on the transit of migrants and refugees through its territory. Secondly, the demolition of the refugee camps in places of their mass congestion. So, in the French city of Calais on 27 October began the demolition of the camp migrants, inhabited by approximately 5.5 million people. Thirdly, it is stemming the flow of refugees within the borders of Turkey, what is planned to allocate a total of € 3 billion. Fourthly, the involvement of NATO forces, which provide information to the coast guard of Greece and Turkey to more effectively do their jobs. Also in March 2016, the European Commission presented the plan to rescue the Schengen area, which provides measures to eliminate control deficiencies at the external borders of Greece, as well as the termination of admission of refugees by member countries of the EU through its territory to other countries of the Union.
However, despite the measures taken, the flow of migrants and refugees is not reduced, which suggests that Europe cannot speak with one voice, and the actions are mostly governed by Berlin and Brussels, who are in favor of open borders within the EU.
As noted by the President of the European Council Donald Tusk: "We Europeans are currently not able to manage our common external borders, as a result, some States have decided to protect themselves by closing their national borders. Since the protection of the European community is our first duty and responsibility, we have failed on this front".
Overcoming great and tangled skein of the problem will depend largely on whether migrants see themselves as part of the European community, to adopt its dominant norms and values, that is, from the success of the processes of integration and adaptation.
Crucial for the process of entry of migrants into the receiving society are knowledge of the language of the country where they settle, and focus on cultural convergence.
However, the training of migrants in regular schools is impossible for them to organize special language courses, which require a large number of fully trained staff of Oriental and African languages. But keep in mind that European States do not have enough free resources to teach all the newcomers. For the full deployment of educational and cultural integration programs for immigrants requires the redistribution of budget funds of Eurozone countries that are in crisis.
From integration courses (language learning, acquisition of basic knowledge about the country, familiarization with state structure and legal system) and the distribution of "reference books of migrants" (the manual, which outlines basic information concerning the host country and vital information) some EU countries have moved to solving the problems of integration and assimilation at the legislative level.
An example would be a law on the admission of migrants, adopted by Germany in July 2016, which stipulates that a country has the right to refuse long-term shelter for those who will not put in enough effort to integrate, in particular, for learning the German language, which is necessary for a temporary stay in its territory.
However, despite the measures taken, only a small percentage of immigrants willing to adjust to a new cultural environment, to change their values and to dissolve in the host country's population. Migrants face a number of challenges, so community solidarity becomes a means of self-defense, in particular Muslims have exacerbated the sense of belonging to the Muslim world. Migrant ghettos are formed, which become fertile soil to the preachers of radical Islamism, of recruiters from various extremist groups, and therefore pose a serious security threat.
Migrants distanciruemsa from the norms and values of the host population and do not wish to be accepted in a new society for them and live according to his cultural norms. Thus, a "cultural distance".
Under the cultural distance refers to "a certain distance between different cultures, especially in basic and instrumental value systems of different peoples, in their preferred norms and ideals, and standards of conduct and way of life". It is given to ethnic and racial identity, language, religion, cultural norms, values, level of education, etc. is largely determining the success of social and economic adaptation of migrants. Conventionally, migrants can be divided into culturally similar to the indigenous ethnic population and cultures. In this case, mass migration has a cultural character.
Religion also becomes a factor in ensuring preconditions for confrontation, because Islam (the dominant among migrants), as a rule, is more rigid and conservative. For the first time in a long time the target of attacks in Western Europe have become Christians as a religious group. The murder of a priest in France in August 2016, on purely religious grounds can serve as an alarming signal that anti-Christian practice of terror is gradually wanders to Europe.
The demographic situation in Europe, too, leaves much to be desired. The birth rate among the indigenous population of Europe is falling, so there is a tendency to "replacement" migration, that is, to liberalize migration legislation and attract large numbers of migrants.
However, when estimating the future number of Muslims in Europe should be aware that in a few years the migrants exercise the right to family reunification and brought from their homeland relatives. The scale and cultural nature of migration contribute to the fact that within 2-3 generations the ethnic structure of the population of Europe will change radically. In this case, the process of Islamization will no longer hypothetical, but very real, and in 30-40 years, Europe will turn into Eurabia, that is, acquire a distinct Arabic flavor (about 10.5% of the European population will be Muslims), which will inevitably lead to aggravation of contradictions between the autochthonous population and migrants.
If 10-20% of Europe's population is of European descent (immigrants from the Middle East in tandem with the African brothers in the faith), then this part will be able to dictate their will, because their demands cannot be ignored. Their influence on the political environment and the political system will increase, as they will create their own political parties. But if they will not be heard, various acts of intimidation are repeated regularly.
In world history there were precedents, when the bulk of the indigenous population was wiped out by immigrants (Indians (USA), aborigines (Australia), Maori (New Zealand)), culture, and public education destroyed, while the remnants of these communities are the minority and occupy a subordinate position. Such a scenario cannot be excluded in Europe.
The conflict between Europeans and migrants can be considered on larger scale. Now we can talk about clear signs of a "clash" of Western and Muslim civilizations (since the vast majority of refugees and migrants are Muslim). Was considered by the American sociologist and the political scientist Samuel Huntington, in the XXI century the main source of conflict will be civilizational differences rather than Economics or ideology. In this context, one should pay attention to the stability of cultural codes and archetypes inherent in civilizations.
You can say that at present there is a blurring of European identity, its cultural code is weakened. This process occurs due to the rupture with the spiritual foundations of European civilization, values which are becoming increasingly secular, and the society is becoming more atheistic.
But as the saying goes, a Holy place is never empty. The revival of Islam once again gave Muslims confidence in the unique character of their civilization, and that their moral values are superior to Western. With the growth of the Muslim population in Europe, the proportion of the population professing Christianity, is gradually reduced, simultaneously displacing and replacing, thus, and European culture. The scenario where both religions co-exist peacefully, it is unlikely because, on the one hand, indigenous tolerance towards immigrants dries up, on the other hand, millions of migrants from Muslim countries, ozadivka Europe, do not accept secular values. Moreover, the desire of the West to impose its values and institutions, and to maintain economic and military superiority cause sharp hostility and violent outrage among Muslims.
Summing up we can conclude the following:
- Mmigratsionniy crisis faced by Europe, carries risks not only to the worsening economic situation and lower the level of public safety, but the risk of the geopolitical weakening of the EU revealed by the crisis due to internal contradictions as States pursue national interests, following the lead from Brussels.
- One of the main mistakes of the guidelines of the European States is distancing from the Christian tradition, and not recognizing the fundamental difference between Christianity and Islam. Moving away from the Christian religion, Europe is trying to approach the solution of problems of migrants from the standpoint of tolerance and multiculturalism, believing that the settlers, having tasted its fruits, will give preference to secular values that is fundamentally wrong.
- Migrants from Muslim countries identification with the host state is weak. You can talk about what their ethnic and religious identity prevails over the state.
- The existence of numerous areas of compact residence of migrants, together with the reluctance of the majority of immigrants to assimilate not integrate them into the European community.
The atheist or nominally Christian population of Europe can hardly resist the cultural-religious expansion of the visitors. In this case, integration is more likely if workers are to accept the dominant European norms and values.
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