Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Politics and Geopolitics / Present and future of Europe / Articles
The European Union is not going to bail out Ukraine
Material posted: Publication date: 29-08-2014

In the last seven years the European Union was tough. The situation in the economy looks dramatically. The Eurozone is not only experiencing a decline of GDP, even stronger than during the great depression – she's dangerously close to outright deflation. Unemployment remains high everywhere except Germany. In Greece and Spain it still exceeds 25% and in Portugal, Italy and France 10%. The forecasts also not encouraging: in 2014, growth is not expected or almost not expected, and in 2015 it is expected to be very modest. The situation seems so desperate and hopeless that such respected economists like Tyler Cowen (Tyler Cowen), have begun to compare the most sclerotic European economies with the de-industrialization of India in the nineteenth century.

In politics the situation is not better. In the most recent elections to the European Parliament, held in late may, a series of unprecedented victories won by the eurosceptics and radicals of all stripes. Even The Economist, tirelessly touting the European Union, sounded the alarm, admitting that the former "Bastion of European federalism" transformed into "a springboard of all kinds of Europeanism". In addition, the President of Hungary Viktor Orban (Viktor Orban) almost declares war on "liberal democracy". It's a bit awkward because Hungary is a member, emphasized based on liberal democratic ideas. As a result, the EU was in a strange position – he is forced to confront openly "illiberal" regime in their own ranks.

I guess all of the above makes it clear that the EU is barely holding itself together. Even relatively optimistic scenario assumes a "lost" for economic growth decade. The inability of the European elite to effectively confront the crisis will strongly and negatively affect the professional lives of tens of millions of Europeans. Political radicalism has increased to frightening levels, and we can only guess where that process may lead. In such circumstances, the EU is clearly in no condition to rescue anyone. Economically he has no money, and politically it does not have the will to further "expansion".

However, Swedish foreign Minister Carl Bildt (Carl Bildt), known addiction to social networks and willingness to support Ukraine's integration into European institutions, for some reason still not understood. The other day he wrote on his Twitter page: "it is Important that Chancellor Merkel raises the question of European aid to the restoration of the Donbass. Necessary. Albeit expensive."
 
If Bildt has convinced at least someone in Ukraine that Europe will come to their country to help, it was extremely cruel – or simply do not say. The EU will not help to restore the Donbass – and to the point. Even if EU (read "Germany") has means (which is very doubtful), the last elections clearly demonstrated that the enthusiasm for the project of the European Union evaporates before our eyes. German society categorically does not want to even bail out Eurozone countries. To believe that Germany will agree to spend tens of billions of dollars for the restoration of Eastern Ukraine, then absolutely do not take into account political reality. Can you seriously imagine that Angela Merkel on the background of falling to 1.5% growth forecast for the German economy in 2014 will appeal to German society, a statement about the serious costs of Ukrainian infrastructure? Such a move would be political suicide, and Merkel is clearly versed in politics to know it.

Ukraine and its political leadership it's time to realize: no matter what Bildt, but the "European choice" of Ukraine no one is going to pay it. Political realities in Germany and in the EU, in particular, the rapid growth of euroscepticism, such that no assistance will be. Kiev may have to run its course and find a way to pay the huge costs associated with the restoration of the industrial centers in the East.

Mark Adomanis


RELATED MATERIALS: Politics and Geopolitics
Возрастное ограничение