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"G8" without Russia: who will suffer?
Material posted: Publication date: 21-10-2014

In the summer of 2014 in Sochi should have been held significant for world politics and economy event – the summit of the countries-members of the "Big Eight". But because of the situation in Ukraine, the heads of state interrupted the preparations for the visit to Russia, and also announced that they intend to hold a meeting in the format of the G7 without Russia's participation. This decision caused a great resonance in mass media, public and scientific circles, and the governments themselves of the countries participating in this informal club.

Immediately after the refusal of member countries of "Large Eight" to arrive in Sochi, the press Secretary of the Russian President said that Vladimir Putin has no regrets about the failed event. He also added that he is ready to cooperate with dialogue partners, even in not too friendly terms. Reaction that followed. How will this affect Russia, and how long the countries of the "G7" will play "injured and insulted"? First, as already emphasized previously, the "Big eight" – an informal platform for discussion of economic, energy, political issues, which has neither the Charter nor the administrative apparatus, nor funding programmes. The last point makes it impossible to increase its role on the world stage.

Secondly, the emergence in 1999 of a new club – "G20", where the dialogue with developing countries, in fact, brought to nothing the work of the "G8". Now the questions are "Big Eight" can be discussed either as part of the "Big Twenty", or General Assembly of the United Nations, on a bilateral and multilateral meetings. In addition, G20 includes all the BRICS countries that support Russia in the Ukrainian question and not become involved in subversive activities against the main player of the BRICS forum.

In turn, the predictions of the Barack Obama that Russia had to fall into complete economic isolation because of the situation in Ukraine did not materialize [5]. This is reflected in the fact that neither China nor the BRICS are not turned down their economic program, and the EU has not reached consensus on how else to "put pressure" on Russia. On the contrary, Russia continuously since 2012 is building a new gas pipeline "Yakutia-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok". The highway will not only allow to gasify the far East region, but will also help a lucrative contract between Russia and China for gas supply for 30 years with an unprecedented amount of 38 billion cubic meters per year.

In addition, some European countries are not prepared to fully support the US in economic pressure on Russia and excluding it from the "Big eight". The Minister of foreign Affairs of Belgium Didier Reynders said: "if we managed to create such platforms to agree on how NATO-Russia, "G8", then this should be preserved" [1]. The example also serves as the Minister for foreign Affairs of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier that "we cannot sacrifice effective format of negotiations for short-term problems" [3].

Despite the fact that the official position of Germany coincides with its European partners on sanctions, to ruin cooperation with Russia, it is not intended, at least in economic and energy spheres. This is justified, because Germany remains the main foreign trade partner of Russia in Europe. For Germany, the suspension of relations with Russia will result in economic difficulties. First of all there is a problem legkomyslennyh and marketing of agricultural products, and vehicles and heavy equipment. Citing government sources, the editors of one of the famous magazines "Der Spiegel" claims that the G8 without Russia will lose its former appeal in discussing political issues, especially regarding Ukraine [2].

Rupture of relations with Russia is disadvantageous for many reasons the EU countries, one of them is the energy issue. 45% of the energy exports of Russia are in European countries. "According to Eurostat data, consumption of EU countries of Russian gas in total is 19%. Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Bulgaria depend on the supply by 100%. Germany's dependence is 28%, France 9%" [4]. It is obvious that the observed dependence of the EU on Russia, the EU simply will not survive the winter without Russian gas supplies. It is important to note that European countries seems to have forgotten the events of 2008 and the energy crisis. In fact, the gas was selected Ukraine as a transit country, and Russia has been accused of unfair cooperation. By its actions the EU can now create a similar situation. Ukraine has virtually no chance to pay for what it has received from Russian gas and for future delivery, and the West, in its turn, is ready to give money to Ukraine to war with the East of the country, and is not going to control the payment by Ukraine of Russian gas. All this will lead to Europe the gas will be up again in 2008, from which we can conclude that costs from the break of relations with Russia will suffer it is the European countries.

Now metaphorically called "Big seven" has decided to meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, whose sessions will be held in new York, the financial center of the USA. It is a symbolic step which will allow our Western "partners" to once again offer Russia to change its position on Ukraine. Thus, to harmonize the positions of all members of the "Big seven" will not be easy. Moreover, the schedule of stay of high representatives of the UN such that it is unlikely to construct a series of meetings so that all seven countries were able to discuss their positions, so hope for progress in this matter they should not.

It should be noted that the fear of Moscow's nothing, especially in light of the fact that:

  • countries of the G7 can't agree with each other;
  • "The big eight" will not accept any binding decisions;
  • economic ties with the U.S. Russia is not so strong to be afraid to break them completely. With Europe and the gap does not occur by virtue of the interdependence of the EU and Russia in economic and energy issues;
  • the tightening of economic sanctions only encourages Russia to increase production and change in industrial policy.

By their actions the country's "Big eight" only cause Russia to consolidate allies, who for the sake of interaction in various spheres with Russia ready to support her in the Ukrainian question. An exception from "G8" has shown that Western countries can do nothing to oppose Russia, in addition to all new packages of sanctions and exclusion from informal clubs.

 

Sources:

  1. Russian newspaper. Belgian foreign Minister against excluding Russia from G8. http://www.rg.ru/2014/03/03/belgia-anons.html
  2. Der Spiegel. Krim-Krise: G8 Rauswurf Russlands vor bereiten. http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/krim-krise-g8-bereiten-rauswurf-russlands-vor-a-958784.html
  3. Frankfurter Allgemeine. Krim-Krise schweißt große Koalition zusammen. http://www.faz.net/suche/?query=Frank-Walter+Steinmeier+G8&suchbegriffImage.x=0&suchbegriffImage.y=0&resultsPerPage=20
  4. Statistical analysis of EU trade in energy products, with focus on trade with the Russian Federation. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Trade_in_energy_products
  5. U. S. expands economic sanctions on Russia over Ukraine http://news.msn.com/us/us-expands-economic-sanctions-on-russia-over-ukraine

 

Ivkina N. In.


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