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The consequences of BREXIT for Europe: some estimates
Material posted: Publication date: 12-04-2018

What could be the consequences of a British exit from the EU for different countries? Consider and analyze the examples of specific countries.

Ireland. Apart from Gibraltar, bordering with Spain, Ireland is the only country in the EU with a land border with Britain. Economic losses from Brexia most significant for Ireland. Weekly volume of British-Irish trade at the time of Breccia amounted to 1.2 billion euros, creating two countries, about 400,000 jobs. Thus, Ireland is the country that a British exit from the EU has had the most negative impact.

France. It was in France, of all EU countries, the most severe skeptics. The results show that a significant part of the French refers to the EU even more negatively than the British. This is confirmed by including a second place of the leader of “National front” marine Le Pen in the elections of 2017. Thus, a successful British exit from the EU likely planted in the minds of the French view that they should also hold a similar referendum. However, those same polls show that most French people, including officials, are inclined towards a United Europe only in such matters as security, but do not want unnecessary invasion of European laws into local life.

Belgium is not only the center, which houses the main controls of the EU; it is also one of the largest trading partners of Britain. In January 2016 ING Bank conducted a study and found that Belgium is among the most vulnerable countries due to Breccia in the sense that it would provide her a serious impact in the trade balance, just as in Ireland, Germany and the Netherlands.

Germany. Brakcet became strong enough blow to the image of the European Union that Germany is unprofitable, as the country does not want to be too strong, not to rally against it (in economic terms) the rest of the EU. Many of the German companies and corporations are closely connected with Britain, in addition, due to the economic weakening of France (because it was close economic ties with Britain), the country is at a disadvantage because France is the most obvious candidate for the role of a powerful ally, if not, then Germany, considered as “too much alone”, is in isolation.

The Netherlands is concerned about the rise of euroscepticism due to a British exit from the EU, because the Netherlands it is economically disadvantageous. Both countries are assessed as oriented to foreign markets and morehodstva, so for Dutch it would be desirable if Britain did not go. However, the right “freedom Party”, supported by 18% of voters (according to polls), has the opposite opinion, and the position of its supporters has intensified after Breccia.

From Poland of two minds on this. On the one hand, for poles living in the UK, it is a pretty strong negative, as they actually returned to the days when Poland was not in EU, and now the British or the poles can no longer freely enter the rest of the EU, or were forced to return home. On the other hand, it helped to divert the attention of Brussels from compliance with the internal policy of Poland and EU standards, and in General, the poles got expected from this decrease in the intervention centre in Brussels in local politics.

For Hungary the UK's exit from the Eurozone was a loss of an ally. The Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban is a eurosceptic, has repeatedly opposed the policy centre in Brussels, what was in agreement with the Prime Minister of great Britain James Cameron. In particular, Brakcet used as an excuse for their own referendum on whether to accept refugees or not. However, Britain, Hungary still has lost an ally.

Ivanov Semyon

Tags: assessment , Europe , UK


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