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Sergei Grinyaev: "the Arctic is easier to learn together"
Material posted: Publication date: 25-02-2013

What are the environmental problems in connection with the development of the Arctic region, what creates the international expert Council on cooperation in the Arctic and how promising the Northern sea route, said the General Director of the Center for strategic estimates and projections Sergey Grinyaev

Guest program - Sergey Grinyaev, General Director of the Center for strategic estimates and projections.

Leading - Maxim Grigoriev.


A joint special project of radio station"Voice of Russia" and Fund of research of problems of democracy


Grigoriev: Hello, dear listeners! Our guest is CEO of the Center for strategic estimates and projections Sergey Grinyaev. I propose to discuss the whole complex of topics related to the Arctic, especially the development of the Arctic.

In my opinion, recently in the media a lot of attention is paid to issues related to military subjects, the willingness of different countries to create some kind of separate units, base in the Arctic, despite the fact that the Arctic is characterized by a number of other problems, there are issues of complexity of Arctic exploration, the complexity of its presence in such regions.

I know that your center is involved in including this problem. As you can see the complex issues associated with the Arctic?

Grinyaev: Yes, indeed, the problem of development of the Arctic territories lately acquired special significance. Today, in our view, there was a bias, if I may say so, in matters of security. We are talking about confrontational painting in highlighting the problems of development of the Arctic territories.

There is a good reason. The Arctic is experiencing a profound transformation, particularly in relation to climate change. The climate in the Arctic is getting slightly milder, the Arctic ice begins to melt. This region of the planet becomes more accessible to the person for the development in the interests of modern civilization.

Grigoriev: How large-scale melting of Arctic ice? How do has improved the situation for working people in the Arctic? A lot of talk about the ozone hole, the melting of the ice, but in reality these changes, in my opinion, are not that big. In 30-50-year perspective, of course, they will be more. And what are these changes now?

Grinyaev: I agree with you, indeed, the changes ongoing in the Arctic regions, are not so comprehensive, global nature: palm trees there are not yet in bloom. But, on the other hand, the climatic processes occurring on the planet Earth, by nature is cyclical and a certain period of time.

The cycle of warming in which we live and which affects including the Arctic region, is inextricably linked to the fact that the conditions for human existence in these areas become much more acceptable. And we are talking about the fact that the Northern sea route - the main Northern artery - becomes available for transport loads considerably longer than it was 10-15 years ago.

Grigoriev: But how? At least a rough estimate.

Grinyaev: Indicative estimates are that in the future until 2040 the Northern sea route will be open for navigation for 8 months of the year.

Grigoriev: But as it was before, 10 years ago?

Grinyaev: Before it was opened literally one, two, three months max. It turns out that the Northern sea route is really cost effective. Transportation of cargoes from Europe to Asia via the Northern sea route cuts the delivery of the same cargo through the South seas for a few weeks. In today's environment of global economy development, it gives a pretty significant savings for any logistic structure...

The full version of the program available in audio format.


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