One explanation for this trend is the concept of the "long peace" of the famous American psychologist S. Pinker stated in the book "Good angels of our nature. The reduction of violence in history and its causes". In this paper, the author comes to the following thesis: "the New rules of the hostel, established by the States gradually changed the very human psychology, which took into account the interests and needs of other people." Reasoning on this subject has allowed S. Pinker to believe that the spread of democracy and the development of supranational institutions, and the demographic decline has made war disadvantage from a rationalist point of view, the emergence of weapons of mass destruction that could lead to universal destruction, created the image of "threatening the future" that blocks aggressive instincts.
In this case, we can conclude that in the world there are two opposite tendencies – the decrease in the intensity of military violence and at the same time, growth in the risk of global conflict.
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