Center for Strategic Assessment and forecasts

Autonomous non-profit organization

Home / Politics and Geopolitics / / Articles
When will the pandemic end and what awaits us after it?
Material posted: Publication date: 30-11-2021
Experts predict that by the winter of 2025, the pandemic will end, and COVID-19 will take its place among seasonal colds and flu. The Economist magazine has collected the most realistic post-pandemic forecasts: how long will we have to be vaccinated, will the coronavirus become less dangerous than the flu, and is there a high probability of a catastrophic mutation in which the deadly beta strain and the super-contagious delta strain will converge?

The world has faced pandemics before. In the 1830s, a cholera outbreak claimed the lives of almost 3% of Paris residents in just one month. At the end of the XIX century, about a million people died from the "Russian flu", which, according to some, was caused by the ancestor of the modern coronavirus. The Spanish flu, which spread around the world in 1918, led to the death of about 50 million people in a couple of years.

The governments of most countries of the world understand that it will not be possible to end COVID-19. The last major state still striving for zero morbidity is China. Nevertheless, almost immediately after the appearance of the disease, it became clear that it would be impossible to destroy it, since many countries could not give it a proper rebuff, says Maria van Kerkhove, an epidemiologist from the WHO.

However, the level of antibodies cannot serve as an indicator of security. "People get sick with COVID-19 even with high levels of antibodies. There is no fixed level that guarantees protection," says Sarah Walker, an epidemiologist at Oxford University.


RELATED MATERIALS: Politics and Geopolitics
Возрастное ограничение