Scientist Sergei Kapitsa in his latest article "the History of ten billion" answered the major questions of demographics. Learn why so many of us on the planet and when the growth of humankind will stop.
People always bother, how many and how much should be below all live well. However, in the opinion of Sergei Petrovich Kapitza, resources like food and water we had and will be missed. The problem is that these resources are not always distributed fairly.
To solve global problems of peace and balance, you need to start with the Central problem of population growth.
How many people should live on Earth?
There is a demographic theory: the more weight, the less individuals. Therefore, little elephants and mice a lot. According to this theory, people should be on the order of 100 thousand people. However, at this point, the growth is not stopped: first he was invisible, then explosive. And now we have 7 billion.
Why does population growth continue?
The founder of demography, Thomas Malthus put forward such an assumption: humanity, like other species, is growing exponentially. Growth ends when out of resources for this. That is, the more people already on our planet, the more children they give birth to and nurture. However, the growth will slow down, when there will be less food or water. The growth of most jivotik really exponential. But people it's different.
Than people different from animals?
The hyperbolic growth of humanity: very slow at first and accelerating at the end. All because our main resource is not food, but knowledge. We do not live alone, breed, eat, and most importantly, share our knowledge. Humans, unlike animals, there is progress.
And will there be enough food for such a huge number of people?
Yes, the food is enough for everyone. Mr. Jackson cites the example of the calculations which he undertook with colleagues in the "Roman club". Today even one country, for example Argentina, can provide food for the rest of the population of the Earth.
It is not a lack of resources and their distribution.
What's wrong with population growth?
Breaks the link between generations. Historical periods are becoming shorter, because history is not measured astronomical time and generations. For each historical period there were approximately 10 billion people. Now 10 billion live and die in just half a century. The historical period is replaced with each generation.
It is now fashionable to blame the gap between generations, to dying traditions — but perhaps this is a natural consequence of the acceleration of history. If every generation lives in an era, the legacy of previous eras he may simply not be useful.
As a global problem and war affect population growth?
Practically nothing. Population growth is steadily recovering. For example, in medieval Europe, the plague took two-thirds of the population. But 100 years later the rise again restored. The same thing happened after the First and Second world wars.
Hence, the growth ever stop?
Already stops. According to the formula of population growth, to date, we should already be $ 10 billion. In 1995 recorded a maximum growth rate of the population of Russia, and then growth is practically stopped. Today stabiliziruemost growth of China's population. Earlier similar processes began in most developed countries, such as Sweden, Norway and Denmark.
What does that mean?
Will be no more rampant growth. Started the demographic transition, and thus, humanity will change. Progress will happen, but differently.
A physicist might call a phase transition happening: you put a pot of water on the fire, and for a long time nothing happens, only the rise of single bubbles. And then suddenly boils. And so mankind slowly there is an accumulation of internal energy, and then everything takes on a new look.
We live in a transitional time. Is it dangerous?
Most likely, the demographic changes are the reasons the financial and moral crisis, insecurity of life and stress of society as a whole. The way we react to new condition. On the other hand, less developed countries begin to catch up with developed. The redistribution of wealth and resources around the world.
How long will this transition?
According to Kapitza, statistical data and a mathematical model indicate that the width of the transition is less than 100 years. But you need to keep in mind that in different countries, it starts at a different time. In Europe and in Russia it is almost completed, in Islamic countries is just beginning.
And what will happen next?
Kapitsa believes that this transition will take place more or less peacefully. But then ready-made recipes and one hundred percent accurate predictions can not be.
History — like the weather. There is no bad weather. We live in such and such circumstances, and we must accept and understand these circumstances.
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